Steve25

I was seeing plenty of drip drip even when it was 18 degrees and sunny the other morning. Never ceases to amaze me how strong the suns impact is.

Still running just about 5 degrees above modeled temps around Baltimore. Had me topping out around 21 degrees around 2 PM. It’s already 25

Yeah it’s odd. I’ve been consistently around 5 degrees warmer than any model has shown. Just for example tonight, the 0z NAM, GFS, and 18z Euro all had my area at 14 degrees at 1 AM tonight. It’s currently 20 and hasn’t dropped in at least an hour. I just find it odd that it seems like all the models across the board are in agreement on temps and are all wrong.

I do think it’s not quite as extremely cold as modeled. Obviously it’s still plenty cold, but it’s been consistently about 3-5 degrees warmer than modeling projected

Last I saw he was being a little shy about making any real claims so far this time. He basically just said it’s a very fragile setup with lots of tiny moving parts that can alter the situation drastically. Understandable that he wouldn’t want to jump on any one solution after his absolute disaster last week.

Was just talking about that with my friend. Last Tuesday afternoon we were rooting hard for the north trend and then it all changed at 18z and particularly 0z that night!

Because of course lol. Hopefully the CMC and Euro trend favorably too!

It would be just like the GFS if it’s a hit at 12z while everything else stays or moves further out to sea lol

Side note. 18z GFS and Euro top out with their high temps in the mid-teens in Baltimore Wednesday-Saturday. Lows flirting with 0 every night. Weather app has Baltimore getting into the 20s each day this week. Intrigued to see where the temps actually end up.

BWI is now one solid storm, or a couple smaller events away from hitting climo for the first time in 10 years!

So by the looks of it we are counting the sleet measurements in our snowfall totals for the season?

Need some advice. I shoveled after the snow. Now I have a few inches of sleet. Do you think I should clear that and then do once more later, or just wait until it’s all finished? It’s the risk of freezing rain to end it that idk. The idea of clearing the sidewalk just before the freezing rain turns it into a skating rink sounds awful, but the freezing rain making the sleet brutal to move also sounds bad.

Baltimore snow walk time! 13 degrees! I’m not banking on the changeover waiting until 9 or 10 AM, so it’s now or never!

Im feeling pretty solid for 6-8 inches around Baltimore. I’ve only done the window eyeball test so far, but I’d say I have at least about 3 inches so far, maybe 4. I believe there’s the potential for another 3-4 before the flip. Fingers crossed

When would yall say the optimal time to walk just north of Baltimore would be? Tempted to go now, but I’d really like to try to time it with the best rates before the changeover

I’ll probably cackle like a crazy person if I end up with 4-5 inches in Baltimore because that’s been the max I can get out of any system the past 10 years. The thing that’s truly saving my mental sanity is the cold air behind this system. I like that it’ll look wintry and shiny for several days. That’s about all I got right now.

I’ll be honest, I’ve kind of forgotten what anything more than 4ish inches of snow looks like because it’s been so long. I keep saying 6 inches is my psychological cutoff, but maybe I am going to little.

I don’t want to trigger anyone with this question but do the models factor virga into the totals? I know the dew point will be very low going into the onset

I mean, I’m mostly with you. I live in that same spot, and I definitely share the same frustration. It’s been a brutal decade. The only thing I probably differ from you on is that I don’t think I view like let’s say 6 or 7 inches that much different than 9 or 10. ESPECIALLY if it’s like 6 inches that’s going to stick around for a WHILE. I will say that 4-5 or less would be very annoying just because I’ve experienced a few of those types of events over the past decade. It’s all arbitrary, but 6 inches to me is the border between snow event and snow “storm.” If I get more than 6, I’ll feel like I experienced my first snowstorm in 10 years and that would be a win to me. Just personal preference I guess.

I feel like there’s some fatigue going on or something. A model comes out and shows 6-8 inches followed by sleet in some spots and this place feels like it melts down and goes into disaster mode, but then a model shows like 8-10 inches followed by sleet and people act like it’s a big win. I understand 8-10 is more than 6-8, but is it REALLY that much bigger where you’re like omg this makes or breaks this storm for me? Idk. Maybe it’s just that the lower it gets, the closer you feel to a few more tweaks and it becomes an unmitigated disaster, but on paper I just think some of the reactions to rather minor accumulation differences have been a bit over the top.

I guess I stand alone on this, but I’d be pretty happy with anything 6+ of snow even if it’s followed by a bunch of sleet. I haven’t witnessed a 6 inch snowfall in Baltimore in 10 years. To have it be followed by potentially a full week of sub-freezing temps, too? It’ll feel like deep winter, and I’ll love it. I’d take that 10 out of 10 times over 2 feet of snow that ends up melting down within a week or two. Obviously any time you compare to what could’ve been, it’s going to drive you crazy. It’s not like we were ever locked in for massive snows with this one, though. There has definitely been modeling that’s given us hope of that, but there have been constant concerns. We literally went from being worried about suppression to being worried about it being too amped in what felt like the blink of an eye. Also, this is a very Baltimore area post. For those of you further south/east, I empathize with you. And hey, maybe this thing will COMPLETELY fall apart for us up here too. Still plenty of time for disastrous changes lol

Suddenly would it be a weenie thing to say I’m expecting 6 inches of snow and then a sleet bomb in Baltimore? Or is that fairly realistic and people are just angry because they wanted it to be 12-18 inches of snow?

If people are allowing the NAM at range to decide their mental wellbeing, they probably weren’t in a good place to begin with

Not putting this in the main thread, but my rule of thumb is to not put much of any stock into the NAM until the whole storm for our region is within 60 hours.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013860089803804790?s=46