Steve25

It's wild to me how some of you are of the "Epic winter or bust" mentality. I understand with the Nino and the years of futility we are desperate, but I'm going on 8 full years since I've witnessed even a 6 inch snowfall. You better believe, if I get ONE double digit storm this winter, I'm going to treasure it!

I just had a memory pop up on my Facebook from this day in 2010 and I was posting about how it was cold, but there were no signs of snow in the foreseeable future, and just whining/complaining about it. In early December directly following our unbelievable 09/10. What a pathetic weenie I was! LOL

BWI: 27.6" DCA: 20.3" IAD: 32.1" RIC: 13.2" Tiebreaker SBY: 15.5"

Saw this on Twitter. As much as this is supposed to be frustrating, all I can think about is that January of 2016 was the last time Baltimore experienced a significant snowfall.

It definitely is interesting! Taking a quick look, 94-95 was the final year represented on this list before the 2020s. I think the simple reason for that is the massive "outlier" years started skewing the 7 year sample size starting in 95-96. 95-96, BWI was 62.5 inches Then, 7 years later in 02-03 they had 58.1. Then, 7 years after that in 09-10, 77 inches.

Yeah, there's some odd numbers on that list. All I know for a fact, is that the winters of 2016-17 through 2022-23 is the lowest snowfall period for BWI over a 7 winter stretch in record keeping history.

Good information, one thing though. I'm almost certain this doesn't include 2022-23 in that span. It's the 7 years leading up to 2022-23, going from 2015-16 to 2021-22. Obviously, 2015-16 presented us with that huge storm in January which got our season total over 30 inches. Certain that the 7 year span from 2016-17 to 2022-23 is the worst 7 year stretch in this areas history. I mean, it's saying something that the 7 year period INCLUDING 2015-16 is still 4th on the list. If my math is correct, BWI is averaging 9.2 inches annually in the previous 7 years, from 2016-17 through 2022-23. As you can see by your list, 9.2 would be by far the lowest over a 7 year period, and it's not remotely close.

Yeah, that's precisely what I'm saying. I don't want to be too repetitive with what you're saying. To answer what you're saying, even if there were the exact same signals and setup, no, I don't think we'd see anywhere close to the same positivity. I think we'd get a lot of "I'll believe it when I see it."

I also think it's fair to say that even if there were very promising signals for the upcoming winter, it's going to be hard for many to show too much optimism or hope just due to the period we're living in. I don't even know if it's arguable anymore that the past 7 year stretch is the worst in this areas history. BWI is coming off it's lowest snow season in 140 years of keeping official records. They've been under 19 inches total for 7 consecutive seasons, tying the all time record from 70/71 to 76/77. Our stretch being notably worse though, with 3 of these 7 years being three inches or less. That period in the 70s only had one such season. If we make it to January of 2024, it'll be 8 consecutive years since our last area wide 6+ inch snowstorm. On top of all that statistical data, we have all the talk that this is not just a bad stretch, this is the new normal around here. It's a dark time for winter enthusiasts in this region and it doesn't make it easier when every time someone brings up a positive signal for the winter, there's someone countering it with why it's not as positive as you may think.

That was easily the most intense sounding storms I think I've had all Summer in Parkville. No real wind to speak of, but the lightning and thunder was insane. I could feel my house shaking. I don't have a measurement on the rain but it seemed significant

Just sitting here going through my winter notes from the past several years. Obviously, it's been a bad stretch, but it's hitting me that I haven't experienced a 6+ inch snowfall in my yard in 7 full winters, just north of Baltimore. Here's to hoping this winter doesn't make it 8!

Getting smacked around in Parkville. No wind, but tons of hail and lightning!

Idk where you all are feeling any "dry" air or winds. It feels like soup out here in Baltimore. It's mid-morning and the Temp is in the 80s with dew in the 70s.

I'm just happy after our painful dry stretch, there's a chance of rain every day in the 10 day outlook. Lots of ugly brown areas in the grass. The ground is begging for it

Trying to figure out exactly what we're looking at for Saturday. It was looking like an all night washout not too long ago, but suddenly the NAM makes it look like a rather intense line of storms for a few hours during the afternoon.

I was well aware of that when I shared it. I was only illustrating that most of the eastern US has been respectively well below average over the past 4 winters. Obviously the more snow you average, the easier it is to be significantly below average in terms of inches. At the end of the day though, below average is still below average.

I find it interesting that it's basically the entire eastern half of the country struggling the past several winters, not just our area. In fact, Maryland is 9th on the list of states with negative departure from average snowfall the past 4 winters.

I appreciate those of you still tracking. You do good work. I truly hope it works out. The idea of getting a snowstorm in late March after a full winter without even a tenth of an inch in my backyard is so stupid that it just might work lol

I may be the only one, but statistically I think it's pretty wild that I've lived through Baltimore's best and worst winters of all time, just in the past 13 years. Major extremes.

Meh, when things are already at rock bottom for the winter, creating a thread can't hurt anyone

Forever 10 days out

Enjoying my sleet pellets in Parkville!

When the GFS shows no snow accumulation 10 days out: "It's over, look to the next window of opportunity" When the GFS shows good snow accumulation 10 days out: "It's 10 days away, we all know that's not going to be right."

This is a great point. If people are locking themselves in for storms 7+ days out, the heartbreak is not on the models, it's on you.

There would be something so chaotic and poetic about getting a decent snow/ice storm in March just as most have completely turned the corner to Spring. Especially following one of, if not the worst December through February our region has ever seen.