Steve25

Not putting this in the main thread, but my rule of thumb is to not put much of any stock into the NAM until the whole storm for our region is within 60 hours.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2013860089803804790?s=46

All I know is every time I’ve opened Twitter in the last couple days I’m bombarded with Eric Webb definitively claiming this storm is locked in as a southern US special and repeatedly going after the “wishcasters” who believe in the models showing more northern solutions. It’s been nonstop. If the trends from tonight hold, or god forbid get worse, he’s going to look like an absolute fool. It’s one thing to express what you think will happen, but when you state your analysis like it’s fact, and crap on anyone that sees it differently, you dig yourself into a hole.

One thing that seems to be coming into hyper focus is that this is going to be a winter storm of proportions that our region as a whole hasn’t experienced in 10 years. I just hope it doesn’t end up being mostly sleet. I’d be perfectly fine with a huge thump of snow followed by sleet. I prefer all snow but it is what it is, and hopefully the trend doesn’t keep pushing.

I can only imagine how bad it is in there right about now

I was in 10th grade for the incredible February 2010 and genuinely one of the biggest regrets of my life to this point was not capturing enough memories from it. I have no pictures. Even 2016 to a certain extent. I have a few pictures from that, but nothing compared to what I’d have now if an event like that happened. About 6 years ago I started a weather journal where I write every little detail from events I’d like to remember later in my life. I also take an obnoxious amount of pictures and videos whenever there’s any winter event. Unfortunately we haven’t had any to write home about since I started that, but I will not miss the mark the next opportunity we get!

Made the mistake of getting on Twitter and seeing nothing but Webb and a bunch of other southern weather personalities going on and on about how the AI models have no grasp on how strong that High is going to be and once they pick up on it, this is all coming south. Someone intelligent in here please tell me they’re being somewhat biased lol

That is kuchera though. Not to say the rates couldn’t be a little higher than 10:1 but like Bob said earlier, it’s pretty rare.

Rock and roll! Not a bad night for the 0z suite at all. Lots still on the table!

Takes one to know one

So the scoreboard so far tonight is Icon- Supressed AIGFS- Amped(Icy) GFS- Supressed CMC- Supressed UKMET- Amped(Still good)

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with this start to the 0z suite. Amped and suppressed. Then there’s something to be found in the middle. It’ll be a problem when the majority of the models start trending in the same *wrong* direction. Until then, it’s all still on the table.

Would be almost 10 years to the date

I’d say scenario 3 would be the least likely at this point.

Let’s hope the 10 year anniversary of 2016 this Thursday/Friday brings us some good mojo too!

This is a great thread. Sometimes I feel bad because I just don’t have the intellect to analyze a pattern or break things down the way many of you can. The special thing is that this is a place accepting of all skill levels and all people. To every one of you who helps contribute to this being an accepting place, thank you! The one thing we all share is our passion for this hobby. We all express that passion in different ways and at the end of the day that’s what makes this place great.

Was I wrong to read this as him in support of the more suppressed look?

Better for gooning over the fantasy snow maps maybe

And…? You think one run of the 6z GFS made him flip his entire narrative from the past few days?

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2011711478613897476?s=46 Webb not backing down on his thoughts about a north/west trend

Webb was repeating a few times earlier that setups like this trend NW pretty much all the way up to the finish line almost every time. He was focused on the Carolinas, but it seems relevant, if he’s right.

You make very good points and I do take back my stance on that. At the end of the day, if I’m overwhelmed by the emotion, I have the option to not partake, or just mute certain accounts. I appreciate the discussion!

What I’m currently having trouble understanding is if you read what I actually said. I said clearly in that reply that there’s absolutely a place for all that and that the current thread should not go away. I just think it would be nice to have a separate thread just with the pros so people can have the option to get less biased analytical breakdowns. I’d never suggest shutting down anyone’s voices in here. Seeing all the weather enthusiasts come together is a great thing. I apologize if my opinion came across like I was wanting to shut certain people up in here. I guess it just gets exhausting coming into the analysis thread to see it be overwhelmed by emotional reactions a lot of the time. I will take your advice and just start muting the accounts that tend to clog it up the most with that stuff.

Came here to say this exact thing. Bias gets involved for most in here, even some of those who really know their stuff. I think it’s fine to have a thread like this where people can give their analysis but also express emotional reactions. It would just be really nice to have one thread that’s JUST analysis without all the added noise.

I think until we get a decent snow event that comes to fruition there will be cliff jumpers any time there’s even the most slight projected warmup