Steve25

One thing the GFS and Euro agree on is that the high temp around Baltimore on Tuesday will be 12/13 degrees, and that we drop below 20 Monday morning and don't climb back to 20 until Thursday.

I've seen a few people saying the potential pattern around the 20th and beyond reminds them of 2013/2014. Can someone remind me of the storms we got during that time? I know there weren't any huge storms, but the winter overall was well above average. Was it a bunch of like 4-8 inch events?

I say this with all seriousness, do you really want the GFS showing big hits 7-10+ days out? Almost feels like the kiss of death recently. Just look for signs of cold air with storm activity in the vicinity at this range.

Driving from Baltimore City to Bel Air from the bars just now was treacherous. All roads were caved, not excluding 95. It was not the most fun drive, but made it safely.

Oh, I'll definitely let it go. It was just a quick thought I had in a weak moment and I thought if there was anywhere I might be comfortable sharing it, it would be in here. I'm on to the next period of interest.

Is anyone else kind of down that this next storm system is just going to graze by? I understand there are factors in play that are leading to this result. I just can't stop thinking about how a week ago all the talk was about how the second week of January was loaded with potential, with the big fear being that it would be too cold and lead to suppression. Now here we are, into the second week of January and we're about to have a significant system moving through the south, and we're not in some unbelievable, brutal cold airmass, yet...it's still not going to work out. I just keep thinking, man, if that thing could just hit the coast and ride up. Feels like this could've been the one to take this January from okay to GREAT. I'll continue to hope for around the 20th and beyond, but this one stings. Just ranting it out.

Oh okay. Well then in my backyard specifically, then!

I think we will have a really good idea by 12z tomorrow

Looking forward to waking up and seeing the official final totals around Baltimore/BWI. Fingers crossed for the first 6+ inch event in 9 years!

It's nonsense like this that gives the weather field a bad name to the general public

Does the euro show any accumulation? Or is it just a complete miss?

How much snow did you get today?

Is there a link to official spotter measurements around the area so far?

And immediately after sending that, it starts LOL

Went out for a walk around 12:25 in Parkville because people not far west of here were reporting flurries. It has been nearly 1.5 hours, and as far as I've seen, the only flake out here, is me

I might actually feel sympathy for NYC if next weekend went something like this, after this current one as well lol

Seriously! I don't want to get ahead of myself, but honestly, we're DUE. Winter was going to unleash its fury on us at some point or another after these past 9 years we've endured

My dad asking me exactly how much to expect in Baltimore "Well..."

I'm in Parkville, just barely north of Baltimore City, and my bar is 6 inches. I'd be very happy. 8+ would be thrilling!

The short range models are giving Baltimore a lot of love. Are they probably out of their most accurate forecast range? Yes. Am I still going to cling to them? Yes.

I was thinking 6-8 for Baltimore was a good, safe call. Starting to think 4-6 is better. No more south movement please

It doesn't have big dog potential at all, or just the way its being depicted on the models right now?

I have not seen a single 6+ inch snowfall here in Baltimore since that storm. I almost have forgotten what it's like!

I'm more here to learn than anything else, and I know there was some talk not too long ago that the pattern coming up around the second week of January could be one of those "too cold to snow" setups, and to my untrained eye, I feel like we've lost that look. Like, it'll still be plenty cold next in the weeks ahead, but all those drastically cold temperature outputs that were being shown have kind of backed off, no?

I think this would belong in the banter thread, correct me if I'm wrong. I just wanted to express this. I have such a respect for people in the meteorology field who don't allow their biases to ruin the integrity of their analysis/forecasting. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being in this field and having a bias, we're all human. There's also nothing wrong with expressing your bias to your audience. There needs to be a line that isn't crossed when you start providing the people with pattern information, though. You need to be able to say, "Although I'd like to see..., realistically this is what we're dealing with." No meteorologist is ever going to be 100% accurate. It's just not the way things are meant to be. There are too many variables and moving parts. Some of these people out there on social media make this profession look a lot worse than it should be, and it's mainly because they allow their bias to bleed all over the information they put out to the public. They pick out model solutions that better suit what they are rooting for and plaster it out there, even when they know it's not the most likely result. When you have a significant following, I believe you have a responsibility. You know EXACTLY the types I'm referring to.