Steve25

So sick of all this talk about this snowless February being some stunning occurrence and signs that things have changed. At BWI, they have recorded 33 February's with less than an inch of total snow since records have been kept. Spread out all over the years. Including the most depressing period from 1949-1953 with 4 consecutive February's with less than an inch. Yes, it sucks, but it's part of the game in this region. It's not strange or unusual.

Tell me I'm not the only person checking the models just hoping this Friday storm pulls a miracle move north haha. I feel like we've had storms ripped away from us at this range before, why not give us one back? I'll see myself out

I personally love the cold and snow as much as anyone can, so yeah, winters like this are a bummer. With that said, I LOATHE Spring and Summer. So no matter how disappointing the Winter is, I still enjoy and appreciate it immensely. As soon as everything starts to blossom, bugs start swarming, and the humidity kicks back in, I'm going to miss the hell out of these 40 degree, rainy days! Also, to take my own advice, I am working hard to get my life to a place where I can move somewhere that lacks Summer, or at least is much more tolerable. If I could just find a place with brutal winters and Summers that top out at like 65 degrees, I'd be in heaven. I don't know if such a place exists with realistic living conditions.

Not saying this in a hateful way, you should seriously think about trying to get your life to a position where you can move somewhere that provides a higher likelihood of snow on a yearly basis if snow legitimately is one of the only things that brings you joy. Life is not as long as we like to think it is. You should spend as much as you can in situations that you know will provide joy for yourself.

It makes me nervous that no one else has posted about it lol

Well were within 7 days, so I'm at least thankful for that. If we can survive to 5 days out with still a possibility, that'll be thrilling. I have my doubts, as I'm sure most of us do in this pattern.

I'll be the voice of optimism. I'm just happy the odds seem to be increasing of seeing snow fall. It may be 40 degrees with no accumulation, but I'll enjoy what we can get lol

I just saw a squirrel bury a nut, maybe that's a sign lol. Maybe it just thinks it's fall again because of these temps.

Also yeah, I loathe the heat. Anything over 70 starts to get uncomfortable. Only place I can tolerate it is if I'm at the beach. It was like 60 yesterday and I was out in a t-shirt and felt incredible in the sun. If it's going to be cloudy I'd prefer closer to 70.

Sounds like my people!

If I could find a climate that's like yesterday during the summer and like an ice age during the winter, I'd be in heaven. I see people are getting hyped up about this weekend in the other thread. My heart won't let me jump in.

Why when the long range shows a bunch of snow we don't believe it, but when it shows a bunch of rain we immediately give up and accept it as gospel? Nevermind, I know why, it's because the long range is never right when we want it to be LOL

This is me just being a bright side guy, but the one thing I enjoy about dud winters is that I know we will make up for it at some point with a big winter. It's just the way things work around here. Some of our worst winters have come directly ahead of or behind some of our most historic winters. To be honest, sometimes I feel like we're still making up for the 2009/2010 LOL

It's not scientific at all, but I believe in the system this week just because of how warm it'll be Monday and Tuesday. Love it when people say, "It's 60 degrees today, there's no way were getting snow/ice!" Then it happens.

Thanks for the info. I found 22 winters at BWI specifically that were similar snow total wise to this winter heading into February, and 11 of them finished as dud winters(single digit totals for the winter). Interestingly, the majority of those 11 either followed long stretches of well above average snowfall winters, or were directly following/followed by a HUGE, historic winter. Fitting my belief that although our winters are hard to predict, we do follow general patterns over the years. What goes up must come down, and vice versa.

I'd love to do some research on winters where we went well into February with a shutout(or close to it) and then still finished around or above average for the winter. I don't think I have the proper tools to do that though. Any years come to mind?

Next week looks like a headache. Really warm to start is looking like a pretty strong bet. Then there's a system(or some combination of systems) that cuts along the cold boundary, well to our west. Then at least some of that cold air gets in here by later in the week but how much and whether there will be storms/tracks that cooperate are a huge bleh.

I personally am not troubled by the warm start to next week. Living here, I could list so many times substantial snows followed very warm days. I know because I've had to explain to the people in my life way too much about how it can be warm today, and still snow tomorrow. "Yeah right, it's going to snow tomorrow? Pssh it's 60 degrees. There's no way!"

I did a little monthly snow research because I was bored. I went back to 1919-20 and broke it down into 10 year segments. I took monthly snow totals from Dec-Mar of every winter and averaged the data out over each 10 year span. This is for BWI. The best stretch was easily 1959-60 to 1968-69. They averaged 7.68" per month. The next highest? 2009-10 to 2018-19 with 5.97" per month. They had 4 months with 20+ inches. We had 3 months with 20"+ in this 10 year stretch. The worst period was, not ironically, right before the best. 1949-50 to 1958-59 averaged 3.36" per month, and had NO months over 20". All the other periods are right around 5" per month on average. Of the 400 winter months since 1919, 333 of them have been under 10 inches. 51 have had 10-19 inches. Only 16 have totaled 20 inches or more. The fact of the matter is that we get a huge portion of our total snow from major storms, but those major storms are far and few between. So were going to be left with A LOT of low times like many of us have been in since 2016. I know no one needed this, but I felt like it and it's the banter thread so...lets banter.

Thank you guys very much!

If I may ask, where did you gather all this storm info from? I always struggle to find specific data like this.

Happy 4 year anniversary to the last major snowstorm! According to my image gallery. A reminder that I haven't had a storm with 10+ inches of snow going on 4 years. I think in my last research, I came to the conclusion that we get 1 significant snow every 4-5 years. So, if it doesn't happen in the remainder of this winter, I'm pushing all my chips in on next winter lol.

Nevermind. I was looking on a site that doesn't show precip type. It had the 540 line and 0 line southeast of us during the precip, figured that result in snow. I guess not.

Am I seeing it wrong or is the 6z GFS actually a good look for this Saturday?

I actually love my car for that reason. It holds heat incredibly. It's like a green house lol. It's horrible in the Summer, but during the winter, I've had days it's struggling to get to 20 degrees, but as long as the sun is on my car, it'll be comfortable inside.