Steve25

Just stopping in to give my areas report. FINALLY Parkville(21234) cashes in on one! I measured about 5 inches on multiple cold surfaces- Grass, Car, Porch etc. Obviously substantially less on warmer pavement, but still enough to require shoveling. Sorry to anyone who missed out on this one. Hopefully EVERYONE can cash in at some point!

I feel my stress level rise everytime I check the models or these forums, especially being that I know before we know it, it'll be Spring so I'm grasping especially hard for something good. I'm going to try to show self-control and be like a normal person the next week. Only use my weather app, radar, and the reports I see on social media lol. No models or forum. I'll come back next Wednesday. Hopefully something will pop for ALL of us!

Maaaaaan if some of these models are correct and we come out of this pattern of very cold air to our NW and a very active storm track with only small events, ice storms, slop storms, and rain storms and never allowing that cold air to truly infiltrate our area for at least a few days, I'm going to hit rock bottom. Significant cold/dry or significant snow. I'm not picky.

I'm not so confident this is going to continue for another few weeks. I think we've got this week and first half of next week for a ripe setup. Heard things like the AO, NAO, and PNA are headed in rough directions after that. Also with days getting longer, sun angle, yada yada. Hopefully we all cash in with one of these next couple events.

And to follow up on that, we FINALLY have a major blast of cold air infiltrating into the country, and we have a train of potential systems near our area on the models. Sure, that's nice because you'd have the hopes that one of those storms would track nicely with that cold air and provide our area with a snowstorm over the next 10 days. That possiblity still exists. The idea that really bothers me is that there's also potential every one of those potential storms winds up as either an ice maker, a slop storm, a relatively non-event, or even a rainstorm if it tracks too far north or west. In that scenario, not only do we not get a snowstorm, but due to that train of storms, we'd also never get the blast of cold air. Then before you know it, it's Spring. I know many of you would have my head for saying this, but if a weather god came to me right now and said for the next 10 days, you can either be on the brink of the cold air with a very active storm track, OR it'll be very dry but you'll be guaranteed it to be a bitter cold 10 days, I'd take the guaranteed cold. At this point I'm just done with the potential after potential. Give me some guaranteed winter and then I'll call it a season. Hopefully things work out and one of these storms does end up giving us the goods before Spring.

I think the thing that actually bogs me down more than lack of substantial snow, is lack of real cold. I LOVE winter so much, it's my serenity. You give me a winter that has some downright bitter cold stretches, where I can take my hikes on days where highs struggle to get out of the 20s and I can see my breath and hear the crunchy frozen ground beneath my shoes, and visit the river that is at least somewhat frozen and I'll be so happy. Winters like this kill me though. So many days with highs in the 40s. The snow events I have gotten have been dinky little events where melting occurs pretty quick. The lack of substantial snow along with no bitter cold stretches at all just hurts. We have 3 months(some might argue 2) of the year that can get true blasts of cold weather and when we can't even get it then, it's a real downer for me.

5 years in a row my location hasn't even reached 8 inches total in a single month. So yeah, I still enjoy these little events but the frustration is building.

Yikes

Ready to predict 2-4 inches in total for everything through Friday around Baltimore. Edit- Maybe more like 1-3

You can aim it at me too. Two WSW events so far this winter and I've combined for 4.5 inches between both of them. With this one seeming to be trending the good stuff away from Baltimore. Group me in with them haha

Not painting a very encouraging picture. I've actually felt very positive about the upcoming threats, which I never did about the last few. I'm one of the ones who truly enjoys every flake that falls and tries to put things in perspective. I'm not going to lie, if we come out of mid-February with nothing substantial, I'm going to be in a pretty dark place.

What happened to Baltimore here?

Thought I saw someone say lows near 0 and highs in the mid teens for one day early next week.

As someone who really struggles with the intense maths and sciences you have to get through in order to achieve a meteorology degree, it always makes me scratch my head at the ones who earn a degree in Meteorology and then resort to just model hype, something just weather hobbyists can do in their sleep. I'm not saying that's all DT does. I've seen him release very detailed articles breaking down patterns and signals. But I've also seen him ignore clear trends and weather logic in order to push the hype of one model output. There are also many others who earn degrees in this field and then go on to just be hype-casters while getting paid handsomely.

I can't get his article out of my head from the 31st-2nd storm last weekend when things seemed to be crumbling for significant snow chances around here and he said he sees a real possibility of Baltimore/DC to get into the 18-24 inch bullseye.

All events after the next event

I feel that. Especially in a winter with models shifting left and right all the way up until game time! I think the trends within 72 hours is what I'm really trying to look for. Hopefully this will be a solid win for most of the area!

I don't know if that's what I'd say is the reason. The onset of that system is well less than 3 days away. If there's any potential at all, it should have its own thread. This is the day 3-7 thread after all.

Agreed. Once it looks more concrete, create it's own thread. Right now, I think the weekend stuff will be included in here.

What? I've had barely any cold/dry days this winter. Have had quite a few days with snow falling recently. Hasn't accumulated much but it certainly hasn't fit the "warm up and rain" formula.

Personal opinions that don't really provide "information" about upcoming weather. Or anything that doesn't really provide information.

We've got a little something to watch Wednesday night/Thursday... Maybe a little follow up something Friday... Then the possibility of something over the weekend... With brutal cold infiltrating the country but we're not sure exactly how that airmass will interact with this train of systems? The possibility exists for every type of precipitation we know of, including dry outcomes, and it all starts in less than 72 hours. My head hurts

Yeah it's a weird feeling. Like I know we're supposed to trust the Euro way more than NAM from 3 days out, but I feel like the NAM has done well at range in telling us which way things are trending.

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? Or are these signals you use to get an idea for the long range more reliable and less likely to change swiftly?

Agree. All I remember hearing in January was that the pattern will become much more favorable for cold and storms in the last week of January and into February, and frankly, that has panned out. A large portion of our region may not have gotten a major snow in that stretch, but the opportunities have been there. There were NO opportunities pretty much the whole month of January.