Steve25

Yeah, I'm just northeast of Baltimore. Got 3.5 inches Sunday. Just an additional coating during Monday afternoon, the heavier bursts didn't last long enough to have much impact. Then added an extra inch last night. So 4.5 in the end. I'll take it!

Temperatures not getting much above freezing all next week possibly? Storms or not, I'd be thrilled. I know a lot of you don't like cold and dry, but I love winter weeks like that! Looks like great hiking weather Monday!

So if I'm understanding correctly now the upper levels are cooling but the surface is warming. So heavier precip should fall in the form of sleet or eventually snow?

My roads all around my neighborhood are snow and ice combined. I'm glad I don't have to go anywhere today because I don't think my little Nissan could do it lol. Just north of Baltimore.

For just barely northeast of Baltimore City my expectations from this storm from a few days ago werr 2-5 inches from Sunday. Got 3.5, so good to go there. I did say 3-7 for the coastal impact. Feel like I might be able to scrape the low end of that range, but confidence is low. Some model guidance is keeping the hope alive.

Love this! Had a similar type of day. It's not what we'd dream of, but it is plenty to enjoy in many ways!

Parkville- Breezy, light snow. Got close to 3 inches today. The pixie dust snow was a bit disappointing today cutting down on accumulations, but I expected 2-5 today so wound up in that range. If I'm not misunderstood, we should still get light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon, maybe a few more inches?

And just like that, first flurries- Parkville 21234

Blue skies breaking through the clouds in Baltimore

I had slim hopes for something big here in Baltimore, but I've put myself back into "Enjoy every flake mode." But I would love something I could shovel! About to do my walk for the onset!

As one of the few in here that actually believes in the NAM, especially within range, it's consistency is a major red flag. I know NO ONE wants to hear that though. I'd take the NAM in a street fight over the RGEM most days. I'm wrong a lot in life though, and I often put my confidence in the wrong things, so hopefully this is just another one of those times.

I guess people can say the NAM is basically alone on that line of thought, I think?

Definitely not going to argue with that! Not sure why the reading I got was 2 degrees cooler. Cool to have another Parkville person in here!

I got 27 in Parkville, but to be fair I'm using online sources. Sounds like you may have your own temperature gauge.

Been away most of the day, just had a quick model question. Is the RGEM the only model showing major accumulations(12+) near Baltimore region?

27/16 in Parkville. JUST northeast of Baltimore City.

Definitely banter, but I'm stressing over temps IMBY basically not dropping at all tonight due to nagging cloud cover, which may lead to temps being a little warmer than expected tomorrow and so on and so forth. A couple degrees could make a huge difference yada yada

To my untrained eye the NAM seems good for Baltimore folks

The models all generally agree with a front end thump of at least a few inches, right? So what were discussing is if we'd prefer to just get that thump and then the coastal never really takes shape for our area so the boom coastal scenario is taken off the board...or if we'd rather the coastal work out, but with it comes the risk of mixing or a dry slot? Maybe I'm just gambling too much, but I live for the big storms. Especially if I'm getting the front end thump regardless! I will enjoy that thump no matter what follows, so give me the chance for more over no chance.

At this range I think you'd have to say anything is still on the table but I'm seeing 4 most possible scenarios. 1. The system stays a bit further north. We get a thump of snow Sunday but then the transfer to the coast occurs sloppy and north, leading to us getting some rain and maybe eventually ending as some wrap around snow showers as the storm pulls off. Basically something like what the GFS has been touting. 2. The coastal transfer to our southeast as being shown by the Euro. All would start as a thump of snow later on Sunday, but from there are the different outcomes. 2a. The coastal stays in the best placement off shore being not too close but not too far and we get our big one we are hoping for. 2b. The coastal hugs too far west and leads to a mix or changeover to rain for the height of the storm. 2c. The coastal is too far east, keeping the bulk of the precipitation out of our areas. Also, 2016 was pretty rare. Not often does this area have the ability to nail down a monster snowstorm from distance with no real concerns over details. Expecting every, or any, big winter storms to be as easy as that was is a pipe dream in most cases.

I've noticed a bit of a trend this winter, that there have been some insane model results from 6-7 days away, people have gotten really hyped up, and then around day 5 the models tend to get a much more realistic grasp on things, then within 5 days the more fine details are worked out. It's taught me not to buy in to any solutions at all until the height of the storm is within 120 hours on the models. So, if the models are still on board for a decent snowstorm of any variety come tomorrow's 12z suite, I'll jump on the train. Until then, I wish you all the best. Hoping there's no crumble overnight.

LOL

Gotcha

Right, but I'm not understanding why the radars aren't recognizing that. They have access to temperatures

I've checked a few different radar sources that are showing snow in places it's definitely not snowing. Not completely understanding why that is though