Steve25

I guess people can say the NAM is basically alone on that line of thought, I think?

Definitely not going to argue with that! Not sure why the reading I got was 2 degrees cooler. Cool to have another Parkville person in here!

I got 27 in Parkville, but to be fair I'm using online sources. Sounds like you may have your own temperature gauge.

Been away most of the day, just had a quick model question. Is the RGEM the only model showing major accumulations(12+) near Baltimore region?

27/16 in Parkville. JUST northeast of Baltimore City.

Definitely banter, but I'm stressing over temps IMBY basically not dropping at all tonight due to nagging cloud cover, which may lead to temps being a little warmer than expected tomorrow and so on and so forth. A couple degrees could make a huge difference yada yada

To my untrained eye the NAM seems good for Baltimore folks

The models all generally agree with a front end thump of at least a few inches, right? So what were discussing is if we'd prefer to just get that thump and then the coastal never really takes shape for our area so the boom coastal scenario is taken off the board...or if we'd rather the coastal work out, but with it comes the risk of mixing or a dry slot? Maybe I'm just gambling too much, but I live for the big storms. Especially if I'm getting the front end thump regardless! I will enjoy that thump no matter what follows, so give me the chance for more over no chance.

At this range I think you'd have to say anything is still on the table but I'm seeing 4 most possible scenarios. 1. The system stays a bit further north. We get a thump of snow Sunday but then the transfer to the coast occurs sloppy and north, leading to us getting some rain and maybe eventually ending as some wrap around snow showers as the storm pulls off. Basically something like what the GFS has been touting. 2. The coastal transfer to our southeast as being shown by the Euro. All would start as a thump of snow later on Sunday, but from there are the different outcomes. 2a. The coastal stays in the best placement off shore being not too close but not too far and we get our big one we are hoping for. 2b. The coastal hugs too far west and leads to a mix or changeover to rain for the height of the storm. 2c. The coastal is too far east, keeping the bulk of the precipitation out of our areas. Also, 2016 was pretty rare. Not often does this area have the ability to nail down a monster snowstorm from distance with no real concerns over details. Expecting every, or any, big winter storms to be as easy as that was is a pipe dream in most cases.

I've noticed a bit of a trend this winter, that there have been some insane model results from 6-7 days away, people have gotten really hyped up, and then around day 5 the models tend to get a much more realistic grasp on things, then within 5 days the more fine details are worked out. It's taught me not to buy in to any solutions at all until the height of the storm is within 120 hours on the models. So, if the models are still on board for a decent snowstorm of any variety come tomorrow's 12z suite, I'll jump on the train. Until then, I wish you all the best. Hoping there's no crumble overnight.

LOL

Gotcha

Right, but I'm not understanding why the radars aren't recognizing that. They have access to temperatures

I've checked a few different radar sources that are showing snow in places it's definitely not snowing. Not completely understanding why that is though

Curious how much moderate precipitation actually makes it north of Baltimore.

35 seems as high as it's going to get in Parkville. Dewpoint at 19.

Having a night of memories. All these dud winters just reinforce the fact that we got THREE major snowstorms in the winter of 2009/2010 is just UNREAL! It gets talked about a lot in weather communities but still not enough. It absolutely kills me that I was a teenager when that happened and didn't appreciate it for the scope of what it was. I loved it, don't get me wrong. Was thrilled to be off school and all that crap. Compared to now though? I journal every weather events we get that's substantial in the slightest. I take pictures like crazy. I didn't even take pictures during or after that historic week in February. I left myself nothing to spark the memories. Sure, I can go online and find pictures and videos from around town but it's not the same as your own. You don't understand, or you guys probably do, how much I would have written about that if it happened just a few years later. That winter, but especially that week in February is something that this area will likely NEVER experience again, definitely not in my lifetime, unless the unprecedented happens. It's a one time shot at capturing it. It's honestly one of my biggest regrets of my life to this point. I know that sounds overdramatic, but it's the truth. I have people tell me, "Just go to somewhere that gets insane amounts of snow, then you can experience it." They don't understand. What made it so special and spectacular is that it happened in this area. The fact that it's something that will very likely never happen again. I'm thrilled I got the chance to live through that. I just wish I would've done more with it. How's that for banter?

Did anyone in this forum get double digits snow totals? North and west folks? Curious where the jackpot zone was in this Mid Atlantic region.

I can hear sleet pinging off my windows in northeast Baltimore City

It's really really really nice to be tracking some kind of actual threat within a week in December.

Anyone who says a Thanksgiving blizzard in a historically strong La Nina season isn't possible must have forgot that this is 2020, and literally anything psychotic can and will happen lmao

I feel where you're coming from. I used to be like the guys in here. For a long time, I would've been seriously bummed out by a winter with the outlook 2020/2021 has. I realized there are so many things I love about winter. The chilly weather, the shorter days, the bare trees, much less bugs and the Christmas season. I spend so much time outdoors during the winter, it's amazing! I absolutely love extreme cold and big snows too, but I've gotten to a point where I don't need that to enjoy winter. Just the fact that it's winter makes me happy. I'm especially trying to soak in every day of this winter because next Summer is the Cicada outbreak and I'm going to be a f***ing mess.

The good thing about having terrible expectations is that if anything remotely positive happens, it feels like a pleasant surprise. Overall though, I'm so glad I've changed. I used to get hung up on how cold and snowy the winter would be, and if it was looking like a bust, I'd be really disappointed. My hatred for Summer has changed that though. Any time of the year that's predominantly below 70 degrees is delightful to me, and I try to soak every day in. I love the bitter cold and snow and always will, but at this point it's icing on the cake of a season that I just adore. November-February(Sometimes October and March included)>>>>>>>>>>everything else!

I am not anywhere close to as advanced in meteorology knowledge as some of you, but I do have some obscure stats. BWI has not had an 8+ inch snow total month(December through March) in 4 consecutive winters. BWI has NEVER went 5 consecutive winters doing that. BWI has went 5 consecutive winters with no double digit snow months twice. Never 6 consecutive. So we can tie that this winter.

I've just been doing some little looks at things but it appears this winter will be entrenched in a La Nina pattern. From what I see in our history, we can still get cold weather during La Nina, but substantial snow is very hard to come by unless you just get the perfect ingredients, like in 93. Is that fairly accurate?