RevWarReenactor

Well, let me say, I think there is more to it than the numbers. A 2-4 inch cold snow that sticks around is worth way more than a 10 inch isolated numbers padded wet storm that doesn't stick to the street and is gone fairly quickly. (BTW we only got 4 inches from that January storm, I know I am switching locations, but it shows how isolated it was). I tend to discount last year because of the above...….now you might say "but a lot of our storms are like that". True. But the reverse could also be the case, where DC only got 5 inches of snow the entire year but it was maybe a cold January snowfall....etc. As an example, 2001-2002 was a bad year, but the Jan 2002 storm, was a good storm in a bad winter, at least in NJ. Which made it better than the garbage we have now. 2004-2009 was a better period. Sure there were a couple dud years in a row. But the other years produced decent snowfall in the prime months (vs the March metlathons). 1997-2002 was better. 1990-1995 was bad, but still better. DC must have gotten screwed back then because as a kid I remember getting tons of snow in either 1993 or 1994 in New Jersey. In fact it was my first "snow on snow" experience. I remember we got like 6 inches of snow and a week later another 6 inches. This isn't a historically bad run for nothing. Its a bad run. We haven't had a good storm since the Blizzard. I'd have taken that dry slot numbers padded garbage and spread it out over all these years and have been 1000% happier. But the climate change impact on our snowfall Is interesting and not something I disagree with. Its unfortunate.

I am just convinced PSU likes to downplay snowfall norms. I am pretty sure others secretly agree. Its not a big deal.....but at a certain point we have to admit, this is not "normal", we are not "due for a bad year".

Nah, my expectation of snow is usually after December 31st. Anything prior to a bonus. Once we start doing the January shutouts and 15 day outlooks of nothing on the horizon, then its getting high time to start tracking the spring. Which is about where we are headed. Unless you think otherwise....if you see a pattern change, where is it? Where do you see us reversing course on this bleak winter? I find it kind of hard to fathom that the first 15 days of March are snowier than the first 15 days of January. DC averages 1.3 inches of snow in March and 5.6 in January. Are you saying of the 5.6 that falls in January 4.3 of it falls after 15 January? I don't start tossing the season until March 1st. I think late Feb can still be decent.

But its still a historically below average 4 year period. Let me ask you a question, how many years would have to go by where we get historically low snowfall for you to stop reaching back to snowy periods to justify it? What if next year DC gets 4 inches total, and the following year they get 2 inches. At what point will you admit that this is well below normal? If it was 32 degrees the day of the storm, that is a warm snowstorm. Its on the verge of white rain actually. I know it was warm because in Delaware there was little if any street stickage. You are correct that its not a warm day relative to average, but it was a warm storm. I don't see how you can stick to DC averages like glue in regards to warm talk, but can't admit below averages when it comes to snowfall. DC has had .6 inches of snow so far, they average for this time of year is..... 7 inches. So DC only has 8% of what they should normally expect. This isn't normal.

You are correct on the first point. I don't disagree at all. Where I do disagree is the thinking that DC will get the 2.4 inches. I don't think they will. Obviously I'd be glad to be wrong. You'd know way better than me but I haven't heard you say anything about any pattern turnaround. In fact, just the opposite. Haven't you and chill kind of said we are pretty much cooked? It doesn't want to snow here. Its not even close. Where do you see us turning around? 15 days from now? Its been 15 days away the last 4 years. Again, I agree if you go back 5 or 6 years, we have good years. But what I am specifically talking about is time period in between.....that is the focus, it has to be the focus when talking snow drought because I am saying, how LONG HAS IT BEEN? 5- 6 years ago doesn't negate a 4 year historic stretch of lack of snow. If it was 1 year, okay, sure, 2 years? I guess. 3-4 years? Nope. You can take the last 4 years and compare to any other 4 year period in the books and we have it beat with lack of snow. That is a historically bad period for snow. Its just what it is. We did have some great years prior, they were amazing, but that was 5-6 years ago now. I am factoring in last years January isolated warmish southern slider..... its in the equation. Its still a historically snowless period.

LMAO!

Since when did complaining about lack of snow become a problem? Would you go to the "dating over 30" reddit and complain about all the posts of people lamenting their lack of success? Its just strange to me. That's all. Sorry, I thought that was implied based on you saying people are leaving of it. Of course maybe me and you have different definitions of what the word "toxic" means. I mean that in the most loosely based form.

The never-ending theme of "its out of control and Toxic in the model thread! Whever can we do?". Which then leads to condescending power tripping threats. Fun times.

Back in the Eastern days it was pure anarchy and it didn't bother anyone. So I think its more of people just moving on than it is anything else.

Its not an exaggeration. We are having the worst 4 year stretch in the history of record keeping. Can't change that. Sure if you dig back to 5 or 6 years, you can use those great seasons to make a case that it isn't so bad. But it isn't really relevant. Why? Because we are talking about time in between. We are talking about a stretch of duration without. Would it matter that you drank a gallon of water a week ago, if you haven't had water since? Answer: Not a damn bit... You can't point to banner seasons 10 years ago to make a case that we've been 4 years with little snowfall which is a record smashing long period.

Out of the 7 season from 1970-1977 DC experience above "median" snowfall, 5 of those seasons. It wasn't a blockbuster time, but it was better than what we are currently in.

It was? 70's looks hit or miss to me. Off on and on with the above average winters actually. A lot of years in there with 16+ inches which would be a miracle from the heavens at this point. We can't even do an inch of snow anymore.

Still a snowier period than we are in now. There was a huge snowstorm in January 2000. DC pickup 8 inches in March one year. Even 2000-2001 is not horrible with DC picking up 2-3 inches each month from Dec-Feb. Heck even January of 2002 delivered a minor storm. At least there was SOMETHING. The only real garbage was 1997-1998, which we are basically on par with now. This is historically snowless.

Its depressing how we don't do snow around here anymore.

You are right, it won't take much to ruin my argument. But I honestly think it is still doable that DC can't make the 3 inches. Just the way things are going. Even if it does, and they make 4 or 5...we are still well below normal. I know 4 years is an arbitrary period but it still represents a 4 year period of significantly little snowfall. So I am just not sure expectations should be at a level where people see no more than a trace of snow in the month of January and say to themselves "This makes complete sense to me". This isn't Charleston South Carolina. I hope you are right about things changing in the upcoming years. The other day I was thinking, the atmosphere is not self aware, as in, it doesn't think to itself "Geez DC hasn't had much snow lately, this year we will make sure they do". But I guess in a kind of twisted way, it kind of is.

But we are still on track for the worst 4 year stretch in DC since record keeping began in the 19th century. That is very below what is normal no matter how you slice and dice it.

Welp this weekends storm turned into a rainer even for Vermont. No chase. Unreal.

Never got the hype over that one. Its alright. The City on the Edge of Forever might be my favorite.

Ya know whats ever worse than the clown maps? That stupid Euro probability of 3 inches map.

Thanks for the explanation.

Thanks. I believe it. Its been feast or famine. Although I don't understand why the last few years have had patterns totally messed up in Jan and Feb and then turning around in March when time has run out. Bad luck? It seems like all we want to do is shutout our prime climo days. We can't get a decent pattern to save our lives.

Yep, that's it, thanks! It was great if you like high heating bills. But that's about it.

I feel like 10 years is a heck of a long time to look at things. We've had 4 bad years in a row now. Which is frustrating.

Okay, well it was definitely a 1 in 30 year type cold. Didn't crack freezing for a very long stretch. I don't remember the exact numbers. I remember it being snowless though. Then the pattern changed and we rained. Cold doesn't always=snow.

Yeah, I guess it doesn't hurt to look for jobs.