RevWarReenactor
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Everything posted by RevWarReenactor
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I remember the blizzard of 1993. It was a foot of snow. Followed by freezing rain and then a deep freeze. Everything was a block of ice. It took 10 times as longer to shovel it, basically hitting it with an axe. You could actually stand on top of the snow without sinking into it.
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If PSU says the worst case is a 6 inch front end thump followed by sleet, ice, back to snow, and cold. Thats a pretty good day. Maybe not a historical storm, but still something to be excited about.
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That would most likely put a ton of mixing issues into the I-95 cities if you extrapolate it.
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Credit where credit is due. You called this first. AMped system. Mixing problems.
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Go visit the southeast subforum. That despair is coming soon for the mid atlantic. People just don't know it yet. Moods are way too controlled by the latest model runs. When those change. Watch out.
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Really only one panel P02, shows significant mixing issues. Good stuff.
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The Euro, verbatim is a near perfect track for I-95. We kiss the mixing line and max out the snow totals. But just 24 hours ago we were worried about supression. Whats this going to look like on the models in 24 hours?
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The trends north are concerning since we still have a few days. Its not going to take a huge shift to where mixing starts to have a significant impact on snow totals for I-95.
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The temps on the Euro could be cause for concern. The gradient between northern Delaware at 16 degrees and the Beaches 60 miles away at 35 is interesting.
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At some point I think ratios are going to matter with this cold. You can clearly see it on the precip maps where we might get less precip but the higher ratios make up for it in snowfall. I think we are any a great spot and if we have a jump north I assume the cold is not as strong and its mostly a wash with accumulations? Euro AI shows only a 2 inch difference between Fredericksburg and Mon county NJ. A distance of 250 miles.
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You all got hosed considering what was forecast just 2 days ago. Sorry. Not much better 100 miles to your north, unless you consider a coating on the grass a success.
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Now bigger flakes too. All snow.
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Hmmmm colder air is definitely working in already. Light drizzle has turned to light flakes here in Newark De. Earlier we needed rates just to eek out a few mangled flakes. You can clearly see the change. Maybe we are good for 1-2 inches after all
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The further northeast you are the better you will do. North enough to cool down; east enough to get precip. I bet nyc and LI does okay. As you head southwest, less and less. Baltimore and especially dc are probably out of it.
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Nam nailed it. Rain. Hrrr finally folded for the precip this morning. if we get nothing this afternoon. This will have amount to a 2-4 inch wwa for a few flakes mixed in with rain.
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Nws is hilarious they call for a rain snow mix today and 35 with 1-2 inches. How do you get 1-2 inches with a rain snow mix at 35? Then you click on the wwa and it says 2-4 inches. i guess they are covering all their bases. I think this is mostly a rain storm the HRRR is already wrong they said we would be 15 minutes of rain with the change over to snow and we’ve been waiting for about an hour so it’s already Wrong.
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No one has a clue what’s going to happen with this. It’s hilarious. The forecasts are all over the place.
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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion
RevWarReenactor replied to snowfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
The amount of people losing it over a 200 + hour gfs run is unreal. It can’t even nail down specifics a day in advance anymore. -
Already down to 31 here. It probably doesn’t matter. Once the clouds come in it will likely recover. Still already 3 degrees colder than they said it would be
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The models are absolutely horrible with tomorrow’s event it’s just been atrocious
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Normally I wouldn’t care what it has to say but it nailed precip types on the Dec 26th storm.
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Yeah im not sure where the disconnect is. This is a panel off the 12z GFS. Its snows, lightly, for nearly 8 hours tomorrow. This looks like far more than an inch. Its not a major storm. But that is screaming 2-4 inches for eastern areas.
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Mt Holly is not at all impressed with tomorrow. Not sure why. Are temps the issue?
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Yeah they will be playing catchup today if the trends continue or if it even holds here.
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We really need two threads now. The nowcasting of this mouse fart is drowning out what looks to be a decent snowstorm tomorrow.
