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RevWarReenactor

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Everything posted by RevWarReenactor

  1. RevWarReenactor
    GFS folded. Shocker. I think its time to put this one to bed for areas along I-95. Sorry.
  2. RevWarReenactor
    I definitely remember this too. I think it was 2009/2010. GFS is kind of doing that now.
  3. RevWarReenactor
    Its the GFS, its on an island by itself, even the best case scenario at this point is we get a few pity inches and watch a blizzard rage just to our southeast. Im just not seeing the hype.
  4. RevWarReenactor
    I guess because we've seen this story too many times. 99 times out of 100 if a storm is headed OTS on most of the 100hr models, it stays that way. Especially in these type of complex situations. There is a reason why 10 inch snowstorms are being treated by the public as historic now. Because at this point, they are. It just isn't likely. Our climo usually wins despite what the models say.
  5. RevWarReenactor
    I guess now we know how Jan 25, 2000 happened and December 2000 didn't. Very very slight changes mean huge differences. This will probably come down to the wire, especially for eastern areas.
  6. RevWarReenactor
    Weird times we are living in, GFS shows someone in delmarva getting 50+ inches of snow in just over 100 hours and we can reasonably assume the storm ends up a miss.
  7. RevWarReenactor
    The one thing we might have going for us is that some models have beach communities of NC getting a foot of snow. Has that ever even happened before? Climo argues for that to change. But who knows. Would be crippling for them thats for sure.
  8. RevWarReenactor
    Correct me if I am wrong but I don't there is any scientific basis behind comparing how models handled other storms. "Last storm trended west, so that must mean this one will". Is almost like saying "the last two coin flips were tails, so the next one probably will be too". Yet so many people repeat it on here.
  9. RevWarReenactor
    Its going the wrong way.
  10. RevWarReenactor
    It had heartbreak written all over it anyway. Even if it did trend west to some degree. Someone was going to get 25 inches while 50 miles away was going to smoke cirrus. Whether it was DC or Winchester. Someone was getting hosed. It was just a matter of who. I'd honestly rather have it be a full miss than to watch a blizzard 50 miles away.
  11. RevWarReenactor
    Anyway-anything else to track after this? Serious question.
  12. RevWarReenactor
    Too bad the models all went the wrong way today. We are under 140hours, which means I don't think this thing is coming back. It would take a huge shift West at this point. You don't usually see those at this range.
  13. RevWarReenactor
    The key thing here is, this is thread the needle. We simply don't do thread the needles or miracles very often. I think people really need to set expectations much lower with this one. Would be more interested if I was in Boston or on Long Island.
  14. RevWarReenactor
    No, check out the January 2022 blizzard for more. Perhaps you don't remember it because there isn't much to remember for these parts. But in summary Atlantic City got 16 inches while we watched.
  15. RevWarReenactor
    Based on this it sounds like its exactly where we want it. And with the trend bringing this closer to us, seems like we are in a great spot.
  16. RevWarReenactor
    This storm was the result of pushing tons of precip into extremely cold air but then it looked at our climo and said “24 inches of cold powder for DC- does not compute!!!!!” so instead we get a sleet bomb with temps in the teens and low 20’s.
  17. RevWarReenactor
    Yes! There is like a little chute that the sleet drops down every few minutes. Its fascinating.
  18. RevWarReenactor
    If we are really going to do hours of freezing rain like the HRRR says, this is going to get bad. Seems like based on early reports- we are.
  19. RevWarReenactor
    Yeah I just went and shoveled about 2 inches of sleet off the driveway, it was an entirely different ballgame than shoveling the cold powder. Felt like 5 times as heavy.
  20. RevWarReenactor
    The NAM has a pretty decent amount too. I can't imagine raining at these temps but this storm is one of a kind.
  21. RevWarReenactor
    No shocker there. They close if the wind blows wrong.
  22. RevWarReenactor
    Finally "crossed over" to pingers. Interesting aspect is that usually when we transition to sleet it knocks the snow from the trees, but since its so cold, and there was snow in the trees, that won't be happening. This is definitely a one off storm thats for sure. Also curious to know where the fr rain line is.
  23. RevWarReenactor
    Just went to sleet here in Newark Delaware 12 miles to your north. Good storm. Wish it could have stayed pure snow, but this finally broke our 10 years of no 6+ inch snowstorm. A record that held for just 1 day. Ill take it!
  24. RevWarReenactor
    Still hanging onto Snow here in Newark Delaware, but Im thinking maybe 30 mins to an hour and we are sleeting. Reports down at APG of sleet and snow mix, which is 70 miles SW of Philadelphia. 30 miles SW of me.
  25. RevWarReenactor
    Surprised to see Baltimore going back to snow. Didn't think there was going to be a fight. Figured once it was over, that was it.
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