RevWarReenactor

LOL, it does look great. We should honestly be glad this storm isn't happening for mostly anyone, if it was, someone was going to smoke cirrus while 30 miles away was getting 6-12 inches.

Outside of that Euro fantasy run; nothing showed a huge hit for I-95 cities. Even the garbage GFS didn't get the amounts over 6 inches and it was on an island by itself. People looked at the last storm and assumed it would trend north because thats what they do. But there was never any scientific rational for that at all. In fact we had a storm earlier in December I think that started heading north in the mid range only to again go south. If the best you got is "it will trend north" based on no evidence. You got nothing.

PS: They really need to retire the GFS or fix it. I get that this was a complex setup. But it showed a 40-50 inch storm for south MD/DE 24 hours ago and now its a big fat zero.

Great! I'd honestly rather it be a full miss than a blizzard raging 50 miles away. Its a MUCH easier pill to swallow.

The MA really is the snow anus of the east coast though. It does actually seem like areas to our east, west, north, and south do better.

Well if we can't have record snowfall, might as well at least have a record heating bill. It just would have been fun to see all the Karen's complaining about the plowing situation and entitlement of getting out of their driveways the second it stopped snowing, to get hit again this weekend with another storm. But alas, climo won.

You know its over when the Euro is running and all thats in here are a few banter posts. Hopefully we get something else before this pattern breaks down.

Yep, I bet Atlantic City, Coastal NJ, NYC, LI, etc actually do really well with this in the end while we watch. Seen this story before. Precip will head in from off the coast and will hit a wall somewhere just east of Philly.

My thoughts exactly, way better to chase storms up north, they get a foot overnight and you are out of there in the morning. God knows how many days you'd be stuck with a foot in Virginia. Ill pass.

Is this like a hurricane, where its just getting scooped up OTS by a trough or a kicker? If thats the case, I don't think we stand a chance of this coming back. If it was the case where we just needed a high to be less strong up north, we'd have a chance of a north trend. Tough break, its so close, but so far. But this is exactly what happens during Hurricane season with fish storms.

In terms of precip its probably the best run we've seen. It actually puts some snow into the cities. In some cases more than the GFS does.

Seeing that snowhole from DC to NYC while VA and NC get a blizzard is heartbreaking though. Thats how we roll here.

GFS folded. Shocker. I think its time to put this one to bed for areas along I-95. Sorry.

I definitely remember this too. I think it was 2009/2010. GFS is kind of doing that now.

Its the GFS, its on an island by itself, even the best case scenario at this point is we get a few pity inches and watch a blizzard rage just to our southeast. Im just not seeing the hype.

I guess because we've seen this story too many times. 99 times out of 100 if a storm is headed OTS on most of the 100hr models, it stays that way. Especially in these type of complex situations. There is a reason why 10 inch snowstorms are being treated by the public as historic now. Because at this point, they are. It just isn't likely. Our climo usually wins despite what the models say.

I guess now we know how Jan 25, 2000 happened and December 2000 didn't. Very very slight changes mean huge differences. This will probably come down to the wire, especially for eastern areas.

Weird times we are living in, GFS shows someone in delmarva getting 50+ inches of snow in just over 100 hours and we can reasonably assume the storm ends up a miss.

The one thing we might have going for us is that some models have beach communities of NC getting a foot of snow. Has that ever even happened before? Climo argues for that to change. But who knows. Would be crippling for them thats for sure.

Correct me if I am wrong but I don't there is any scientific basis behind comparing how models handled other storms. "Last storm trended west, so that must mean this one will". Is almost like saying "the last two coin flips were tails, so the next one probably will be too". Yet so many people repeat it on here.

Its going the wrong way.

It had heartbreak written all over it anyway. Even if it did trend west to some degree. Someone was going to get 25 inches while 50 miles away was going to smoke cirrus. Whether it was DC or Winchester. Someone was getting hosed. It was just a matter of who. I'd honestly rather have it be a full miss than to watch a blizzard 50 miles away.

Anyway-anything else to track after this? Serious question.

Too bad the models all went the wrong way today. We are under 140hours, which means I don't think this thing is coming back. It would take a huge shift West at this point. You don't usually see those at this range.

The key thing here is, this is thread the needle. We simply don't do thread the needles or miracles very often. I think people really need to set expectations much lower with this one. Would be more interested if I was in Boston or on Long Island.