RevWarReenactor

You can laugh all you want. The debs have been far more accurate than the models. Thats the truth of the matter.

The question should really be reversed. What are you basing a good Feb on? Blind faith that goes against statistically probabilities and against climo is pretty much all one has. The window is closing quickly. Unless you like fluke March metlathons.

Maybe things finally turn around in March? When its too late? That is what happened last year.

It has been historically bad. Not just this year, the past few years. You'd think at some point we'd catch a break. Doesn't look like this year.

Kind of an odd precip map. You don't often see a west to east type setup with precip where Fredericksburg does better than NYC.

I think that is because we need good tracks for snowstorms. Cutters can just be wherever. If a cutter is 200 miles off from where it was originally forecast to be, no one notices or cares. The margin of error is far less for snowstorms.

Yeah I think that was only done because people are too focused on this phantom -NAO pattern that will never happen.

The 6z looks unimpressive to me. Early next week looks like rain. After that is fantasy time. It's been showing all kinds of inconsistency in the long range.

That whole "flash freeze" thing is another hyped weather myth. In many years in this hobby, I've never seen it. Unless you count a couple frozen puddles here or there.

Did you steal that line from Psu in his reply to snowstorm? He'd be flattered I am sure.

I am actually in the process of writing a song. Its called "Climo says no"

I actually think the model thread should only be for mets and people who have proven themselves as forecasters. Everyone else can just watch and take the sidebars elsewhere. That being said, lots of safe spacers in this place. What happened to do the days where the melt downs and the complaining was actually what was expected. Now people saying they are leaving because god forbid, a blown forecast, or a bad winter, is called what it is!! Imagine being disappointed in a weather forum due to lack of snow! Crazy idea!! People get so offended these days. Its hilarious.

Our snow has been in full melt since 9am yesterday. It feels tropical outside.

from the nyc thread, lol

I don't see anyone talking about The Thursday storm. Which is perplexing. Looked like a big storm and GFS went to rain. Does that have model support now? Serious question. I am far more interested in that, than this pattern change to be honest. Snow is Snow.

Not to banter. But we got 2 inches from last weeks storm up here.

Welp, here we basically are PSU's Jan 20th pattern change, and shockingly enough, its still just two weeks away. I guess the mid week storm is rain now too?

This makes sense. This storm always seemed to be your classic "north and west of the city" type storm. Climo argues for this type of stuff. Plus they are way overdo for it. I drove in Southern NY state all the way up to Lake George was bare grass. It is their turn. But like PSU said, stinks being in the middle of two storms. There is an area now that will have cashed in on neither. Feel kind of bad for Philly.

Just a basic question. Is the ICON shown that is the least bit reliable? I have the same feeling about the FV3 and the NAM passed 24 hours. Joke models for entertainment only.

Way too much waffling in this thread. One minute "its south its south" the next minute, mostly a rainstorm. Not getting much of a grasp on what to really expect. Just a bunch of confusion.

Okay, I guess I've learned to lower my expectations for this area. Honestly a decent storm this past weekend; I find the meltdowns a bit perplexing. This is fairly standard faire. . We could wrap this winter up now and have it be just a bit below normal. One more storm (which is very possible) could put everyone above average. This is the mid Atlantic not upstate NY

Yeah, if DC doesn't see another flake aren't they at climo for the year? This next storm does look like the classic warm wet then cold dry that we do so well here. Shouldn't be all that disappointing or shocking.

Is this exactly what happened with the December storm? That ended up further north than modeled.

The 06Z GFS is hilarious, suppression city with the next few storms. Richmond gets feets and feets while DC smokes cirrus.

Amazing to think that if you add up all the snow DC has had from Jan 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2016, Feb 2017. That 4 months of prime winter. They've had a grand total of 2.8 inches. With any luck, we can add 2 more months to the list soon! A full half year of prime winter and not crack 5 inches! Can it be done?