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RevWarReenactor

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Everything posted by RevWarReenactor

  1. RevWarReenactor
    This was an interesting winter here. It was above average, with quite a few events. But not a single one was plow-able. Our streets were never plowed, and it only takes about 2-3 inches for that. There was something that was quite unsatisfying about it. Almost every single event was flawed. Snow to Rain or whatever. I would have tossed it all for just 1 legit storm.
  2. RevWarReenactor
    I just don't see it. March. Daylight. Temps likely above freezing. Classic white rain setup.
  3. RevWarReenactor
    I think this is a none event for I-95 corr. But you will basically be able to walk to snow.
  4. RevWarReenactor
    Not to be negative, it seems like there is potential here. But it also seems like most models are showing fail at this time for pretty much every chance we have. Of course it could trend better; but at this time it seems like a lot of hype over "lets hope it trends in the right direction".
  5. RevWarReenactor
    Kind of feels like last winter. Bad pattern until March.
  6. RevWarReenactor
    Okay, that was not my perception reading this thread. PSU and BoB Chill only seemed to get as far as "Meh we could sneak something in here maybe". There was never a time where it was "Amazing pattern right here.. Right now". It was always 10-15 days away.
  7. RevWarReenactor
    It seems you missed the point of my post. I was saying that March snow is pretty much the same but that the chances of it happening go way down with every passing day. As predicted, it is looking like the early March opportunity is quickly fading. Just like all the other 10-15 day opportunities this year. So at this point, I'd say this thread is tracking spring. Despite a bad look all year, its actually somehow been a decent winter.
  8. RevWarReenactor
    I must admit, having now had these storms in Feb and comparing them to last March; really not much different. Pretty much the same slushy meltathon. I think the only drawback to March is with every passing day the odds of getting a storm go way down. You are working against the clock. Stuff that would have worked in Jan or Feb, doesn't work. Anyone remember snowquester?
  9. RevWarReenactor
    The good news is, most of the 10-15 day fantasy snow/cold this year disappeared pretty quick instead of sucking us in for the last minute change of plans. It probably won't be long before we see the fail written all over the early March "potential" and we can gear up for spring!
  10. RevWarReenactor
    I don't buy it. Shows icing here in nothern Delaware and I can tell you we are already at or above freezing. The rain is dripping off my car. Maybe far far north western areas, but even there, the cold is going bye bye.
  11. RevWarReenactor
    HRRR says precip returns, but it is probably rain by then.
  12. RevWarReenactor
    Definitely an odd storm. Was worried about a changeover all this time when a lot of us should have been worried about the storm just ending. No sleet or ice to speak of. Its just over. 3 inches here. Can't complain that we sneaked this one in.
  13. RevWarReenactor
    I actually think lack of precip here and not temperatures will be what keeps totals lower. Looks to shut off out to the west long before temps are an issue.
  14. RevWarReenactor
    A dusting. Snow is coming down though. I guess it's our turn up here, but the mixing line is moving north fast. I don't think we will get the totals that areas like DC got before the changeover. You guys should be happy with 2-3 inches.
  15. RevWarReenactor
    Given how bad guidance has been (72 hours out everyone thought a Saturday 3-5 inch DC snowstorm was a lock). I think it is really best to take the models for Wednesday with a grain of salt. Anything from success to complete failure is probably on the table until at least Monday night.
  16. RevWarReenactor
    Yeah, it would be interesting to see why the LR guidance consistently got it wrong this year.
  17. RevWarReenactor
    Hoffman and Chill are amazing. Sadly all they have been tracking is a pattern that will never become reality.
  18. RevWarReenactor
    This is going to shift north 50-75 miles is we go by trends so far this year.
  19. RevWarReenactor
    Euro is looking good for DC to be the cutoff on the south side and Philly the cutoff on the north. Based on north trends. Looking good.
  20. RevWarReenactor
    Saturday sounds like a thread the needle. We want confluence at first, then we want less confluence, but not a lot less. So either its a rainer, or a miss to the south. Somewhere in there is a great track, but even one of those tracks might feature temp issues. We usually don't do well here.
  21. RevWarReenactor
    How do you guys have road stickage there? It is totally wet streets here.
  22. RevWarReenactor
    Interesting storm. You have to be far enough north for the cold, but far enough south for the precip and there is very little margin of error. I just happen to be in the swwet spot. About 5 inches here, been snowing all day. But its all on grassy surfaces. Streets starting to recave as the sun goes down though.
  23. RevWarReenactor
    I think the HRRR gets a lot of undeserved bad publicity, it isn't always great, but as an extended radar, it is certainly useable. There is far more fail coming from the main models which are honestly, abysmal. Looks like Baltimore north might be able to eek something decent out of this event. Hopeful but cautions.
  24. RevWarReenactor
    It's even a thing 500 miles straight north of here. Not as drastic of course, but they have their cutters and their warmup and rains.
  25. RevWarReenactor
    Its not a good setup, so this is no shocker. Its looking more and more like an inch or 2 and then a rainer vs 4-8 inches and a dry slot. Makes sense. We will be waiting the precip as the temp goes up. I think next weekends storm is one to watch.
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