RevWarReenactor

Im excited. Already planning my upstate NY chase for this one.

6Z GFS is actually showing the "PSU pattern". Impressive.

Same for me. Part of it is that I can chase now. The other part is that I've learned to accept our climo here. At this point I actually consider 4-5 inches per year to be above average snowfall. If you set your expectations there, its not hard to handle.

Read this post very very carefully. I could find you like 100 others posts just like it talking about a late Jan early Feb epic pattern change. The can has been kicked a month. Soon we will be tracking spring!

I feel a subtle can kick happening in LR thread. Suddenly these maps posted arent showing Feb 14th. Now they have Feb 20th dates on them. Huh. The snowy and cold period is always 2 weeks away! Rinse and repeat. Until we start tracking spring.

Sounds good! I'll be honest. I'd rather be wrong, owe you $20 and get snow than be right. But I am about 90% sure I am going to be right.

Sounds good. Lets do $20. I don't have venmo but have paypal. Checking the latest GFS, I continue to be in good shape for my call of no snow Pre 15th and nothing to track after. I believe it will hold up well. I still think I-95 from DC to Phillyshuts the rest of the winter out, minus a dusting-1 inch possibility here or there.

I am also worried that this has the chance of being a one sided "mafia" bet. If I lose, I pay you, if I win. I don't get paid.

I don't know, did you have a figure in mind? I am certainly willing to put my money where my mouth is but I wasn't sure of an amount.

You are kind of splitting hairs here. Lets make it simply. No accumulating snow at BWI before Feb 15th. I couldn't rule out a stray flurry. Those happen. Nothing to realistically track on Feb 15th inside 6 days. A widespread storm. 3 inches+ for I-95 From DC to Philly.

You know its breaking down when people start pulling out the "it can snow in March" routine.

Sure, lets do it. BWI is good. When I say trackable threat, it has to be showing up on the 144hr (6 days) or less GFS and has to have at least SOME support from other guidance. I have no question there will be plenty of fictional storms, cold air, and epic pattern changes at that time on the 216+hour. I maintain there is a very good chance that I-95 shuts out the rest of the winter. A dusting-an inch aside. An epic win would be a 5+ inch snowstorm at this point that brought the area to AVERAGE.

6z GFS turned the V-Day storm into a nice cutter.

Go look at the thread I posted. We were tracking a brief reset after the last 2 storms and then a good pattern setting in; early Feb. Now its post Feb 14th. Want to make a bet? We meet back here Feb 15th. No snow between now and then, and you will be tracking a "good pattern" in late Feb/ Early March. (which also won't happen) How much do you want to bet?

Go back and look. It was. We've been tracking good patterns 2 weeks away all winter.

You are getting greedy. 3 inches is the new 30 inches! Snow is rare. Our Climo is now what Charleston SC had 20 years ago.

I agree. It was a good week.

Are you sure? It seems you all don't realize you spend all winter tracking amazing patterns that are always two weeks away. The post after his is showing an amazing pattern for Jan 25/26th. How did that one go? Wasn't it 80 in DC that day? LOL

Lets rewind the clocks two weeks ago. We were tracking 2 moderate snowfalls. A brief reset period of warmth and then early Feb would be amazing. I remember PSU saying he couldn't draw a better pattern if you gave him crayons. Well here we are. Where is the pattern change? How has the can not been kicked? LR tracking is garbage. We will be here 2 weeks from now and still looking out 2 weeks for this phantom pattern change that will never come.

The big secret is, long range tracking is garbage. You can predict the future far more accurately by looking at our regions climo. Which is warm and snowless with a once every couple of years shot at a cold and snowy period followed by more warm and snowless. Climo says the so called called pattern change is a no show. Which is why the can keeps getting kicked until they are over there tracking spring.

My prediction, I-95 only ends up with another dusting-2 inches this year. There is about a 10% chance of having an additional 8 inches on top of the 8 inches we've already had. A 16 inch seasonal total would be a huge boom. People calling for even a 20 inch season total are delusional. Climate has clearly changed.

I’m way upstate ny. 100 miles north of Albany in mountains and even here. Nothing sticks. Ha! Waste of a trip. At least I can go take a walk in the old snow and pretend like the old snow is the new snow even though the new snow is not sticking to the old snow. Boom!

Bad news folks I’m way upstate New York like 100 miles north of Albany in the mountains and even up here it’s snowing nice but it ain’t sticking temperatures are just too warm! pathetic

Its probably going to puke snow Sunday and not stick to hardly anything outside of the elevated areas, seen this story too many times. Its just not going to be cold enough. That's the worst. I'd rather just have rain. Maybe could start to stick Sunday night, but by then its wasted a lot of the precip. Bad timing with this one.

Yeah- the NWS accumulation map looks reasonable. The model maps do not. Temps during the day Sunday don't support those accumulations outside of the elevated areas IMO. I think a lot of people will see white rain.