RevWarReenactor
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Everything posted by RevWarReenactor
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This season is now like a 40 year old football quarterback. Maybe he gets another good season or two; but the window for greatness is quickly closing.
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It seems like the model theme this year is to get a trend slowly to what we want around the 100hr mark and then and huge jump in the wrong direction where it stays locked in. Can’t even buy a 2 inch snowstorm around here.
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I might hit both storms. Chasing #1 to Albany. Bare ground; fresh blanket of snow. Drive home to bare ground; storm #2 ; fresh blanket of snow? That might be more fun than I can handle. Exciting. Let’s do this.
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Nope. Too far west. NJ got killed but was fringed here. Long duration light snow but only ended with 4 inches on the grass and due to marginal temps at the start; about 2 inches on the street. Not plowable. Still probably the best storm we be had in years. It’s rough down here.
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Might not seem like a big deal to you guys but I’m super excited for this storm. Have not seen a plowable storm since 2016 here in Delaware. Mid Atlantic winters are the worst. So I’ll be chasing this one up to upstate NY. Location tbd. I missed the last storm and was super bummed out. So this one means even more. Thanks for posting accu maps to help with the decision. Right now I’m thinking Albany is a safe bet although that mix line may have be going to glens falls or even lake George.
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Feb 24-25, 2022 Ice/Sleet/Rain/Snow (yeah sure) Storm Thread
RevWarReenactor replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
But he usually speaks the truth. It’s kind of funny how all the analysis on here is usually wrong and all the negative JI posts essentially verify. Really one of the best sources of info on here for what will really happen. 6z gfs is way north with this now. Major changes. -
Does the gfs look better upstairs at the h7 or g5 or whatever? because the surface is still no good
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Translation “no we don’t believe the gfs”
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Whats wrong with sleet other than accumulating at about 1/10th of what snow does? Ice we could do without. But recall the accuracy of the last GFS "ice storm".
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You are being sarcastic… but I’ll answer anyway. Scares me when psu says we are reverting to Jan pattern; but instead it’s March. We didn’t do well. But I will chase for sure. Prob next weekend. So I’m excited. My last chase had to be canceled last minute. My cat got sick. Got money back on hotel room. Then paid for vet appointment.
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An endless train of precip getting shunted up here. One of them has to time right with the cold air; I think. I’d be far more excited if I was in upstate NY in this pattern. But I think we are at least in the game.
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Been watching this upcoming storm for Thursday and it’s trending south last two days on the GFS. Chicago was rainy icy and maybe snow and is now almost all snow. Syracuse was rain by a 200 mile margin and is now flirting with ice. So maybe that Feb 25th event has some room to come south? It would have to be a decent sized adjustment; but maybe? Looks like our first “window of opportunity. “
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I get what your saying. I don’t think street measurements should be taken. But in the flip side It’s still a remarkable run. Especially when I get Facebook memories like this one…
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March 2018 was like 3-4 inches on the grass for me. No street accumulation. I remember it’s snowing like crazy but it was melting just as fast. it’s hard to believe my streets have literally not been plowed since blizzard of 2016 with plowing criteria being 4 inches. It’s a pretty remarkable run.
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Coming down now. But it’s white rain. I do see why the models printed out the 2-4 inches; it’s what it would have been say 4 degrees colder.
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A wet dusting on the grass. last nights 3k NAM gave me 5 inches. Other models said 2-4. Just another example of why ignoring the models and following climo does you well. my app was right; we never got below freezing.
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Exactly. Some people claim there is negativity here when it is actually just reality. Still 44 degrees here and only dropping 1 degree an hour. There is already a math problem here.
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It could be wrong. I don’t know. I hope it is. Will be interesting to see if we are still at 40 at midnight.
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I’m guessing the gfs?
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Fwiw my hourly forecast on my app doesn’t have us going below freezing at all during the event. 34 is the min. That is problematic. Singing A very different tune than the NAM is.
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I-95 special and biggest storm of the year for some if it verified.
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It’s not that it can’t be 60 one day and snow to stick the next…. it’s that we haven’t done it well recently. I’m thinking back to that January bust where 1-3 inches on the models was a few flakes and we knew by 3am it was a no go when it was still like 45 degrees out. Hopefully this goes differently
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If we reel something in, and when I say something I mean anything over an inch; have to give kudos to @CAPE
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Or a professional therapist. I use to be off the wall. I learned to control my emotions with behavior modification. Greatest gift ever. Anyway hope to chase at least one before the year is over if we don’t get anything here.
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To this day I don’t understand why people post kuchara maps.
