RevWarReenactor

Certainly a notable shift south.

Its called latest model privilege. Pretty new colors. But much caution needed. GFS has been so bad this year. Euro is still saying congrats NE. What will 12z say? Stay tuned.

@stormtracker There is no panic here. I am just a weary traveler/model reader looking to find a place to plant my flag for the upcoming Vstorm. I am going to get snow from this storm whether I am in Montreal Canada or in Richmond Virginia. It does not matter to me. Its excitement either way. Joy!

Damn these models are struggling. Last night I think I am taking a 300 mile drive north for this one, this morning, I might be staying home. Who the heck knows anymore.

Delayed but not denied, March 20th- April 1st will be rocking. Epic pattern! Its coming. Just be patient.

This mornings coach turned into a pumpkin

Even NYC and NW Jersey is punting this.

Im excited. Already planning my upstate NY chase for this one.

6Z GFS is actually showing the "PSU pattern". Impressive.

Same for me. Part of it is that I can chase now. The other part is that I've learned to accept our climo here. At this point I actually consider 4-5 inches per year to be above average snowfall. If you set your expectations there, its not hard to handle.

Read this post very very carefully. I could find you like 100 others posts just like it talking about a late Jan early Feb epic pattern change. The can has been kicked a month. Soon we will be tracking spring!

I feel a subtle can kick happening in LR thread. Suddenly these maps posted arent showing Feb 14th. Now they have Feb 20th dates on them. Huh. The snowy and cold period is always 2 weeks away! Rinse and repeat. Until we start tracking spring.

Sounds good! I'll be honest. I'd rather be wrong, owe you $20 and get snow than be right. But I am about 90% sure I am going to be right.

Sounds good. Lets do $20. I don't have venmo but have paypal. Checking the latest GFS, I continue to be in good shape for my call of no snow Pre 15th and nothing to track after. I believe it will hold up well. I still think I-95 from DC to Phillyshuts the rest of the winter out, minus a dusting-1 inch possibility here or there.

I am also worried that this has the chance of being a one sided "mafia" bet. If I lose, I pay you, if I win. I don't get paid.

I don't know, did you have a figure in mind? I am certainly willing to put my money where my mouth is but I wasn't sure of an amount.

You are kind of splitting hairs here. Lets make it simply. No accumulating snow at BWI before Feb 15th. I couldn't rule out a stray flurry. Those happen. Nothing to realistically track on Feb 15th inside 6 days. A widespread storm. 3 inches+ for I-95 From DC to Philly.

You know its breaking down when people start pulling out the "it can snow in March" routine.

Sure, lets do it. BWI is good. When I say trackable threat, it has to be showing up on the 144hr (6 days) or less GFS and has to have at least SOME support from other guidance. I have no question there will be plenty of fictional storms, cold air, and epic pattern changes at that time on the 216+hour. I maintain there is a very good chance that I-95 shuts out the rest of the winter. A dusting-an inch aside. An epic win would be a 5+ inch snowstorm at this point that brought the area to AVERAGE.

6z GFS turned the V-Day storm into a nice cutter.

Go look at the thread I posted. We were tracking a brief reset after the last 2 storms and then a good pattern setting in; early Feb. Now its post Feb 14th. Want to make a bet? We meet back here Feb 15th. No snow between now and then, and you will be tracking a "good pattern" in late Feb/ Early March. (which also won't happen) How much do you want to bet?

Go back and look. It was. We've been tracking good patterns 2 weeks away all winter.

You are getting greedy. 3 inches is the new 30 inches! Snow is rare. Our Climo is now what Charleston SC had 20 years ago.

I agree. It was a good week.

Are you sure? It seems you all don't realize you spend all winter tracking amazing patterns that are always two weeks away. The post after his is showing an amazing pattern for Jan 25/26th. How did that one go? Wasn't it 80 in DC that day? LOL