CheeselandSkies

While certainly featuring an inordinate number of very intense tornadoes, I agree the '74 outbreak was probably not as far ahead of its 2011 cousin in terms of tornado intensity as the official (E)F3-5 counts would indicate. Many of the violent tornadoes in the 2011 event, including several EF4s, did notably more intense damage across a greater portion of their path lengths than all but a few of the official F5s (particularly Brandenburg and Guin) in 1974. The only thing that in my mind keeps the 2011 event from being unquestionably worse than 1974 is the lack of coverage of violent tornadoes further north into KY/IN/OH. It was much worse for Alabama, however with the morning QLCS spawning a large outbreak in and of itself. To me, the ultimate outbreak would combine the coverage of the 1974 Super Outbreak (Dixie Alley through OH Valley into southern Lakes) with the concentrated tornadic violence that was visited on the 1st and 3rd of those regions in 2011 and on Palm Sunday 1965, respectively.

Say, -EPO, where abouts are you (general area is fine if you don't want to say exactly). You've mentioned in several posts your disdain for a northeast wind, so I'm guessing on one of the Lakes?

I hear ya, but still plenty nice out here and will be through the next week. Just a little quieter than I like to see in spring. At least it's not snowing! Hey, at least you can chase some high-based, pretty hailers this evening. If I was local I'd be all over that setup, but I'm not driving from WI to western OK for it even if I were on vacation!

Apparently, roughly where Toledo is?

Nope. Post #266. "...PNA appears to be going back negative..." https://talkweather.com/index.php?threads/severe-weather-2019.1149/page-14

Certainly interesting seeing the vastly conflicting opinions in here... * Someone on another forum even says it looks like we are going into a -PNA.

Now we need to see some more storms, not a dry torch like 2012 (although that one began before the end of March).

Dang, if I had been at my place I would have been a lot closer to those. Can't remember the last time I saw a thunderstorm. Probably was sometime in October 2018. Missed out on any thundersnow over the winter.

Nice boomer just now, over at my gf's by Tenney Park. Wasn't expecting that today! Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

How so? Looks like it ends (at least on Pivotal at 240H) with a trough west/ridge east.

Reminds me a bit of the late March 2015 setup that produced the EF2 in Moore, when conditions were expected to be generally unfavorable for tornado formation (just a blue box in effect).

Can you give a little bit of background for what it means for CONUS severe weather which phase the MJO is in? Which phases are favorable and which are not?

Yeah, around 10 days ago I thought the pattern was gonna become more conducive quicker, but I have to remind myself there's still 9 days of March, and our morning temperature in the upper 30s today is actually slightly above normal.

... as long as I'm not trying to drive in a kitchen sink of winter precip on April 14 like last year...

Evidently SPC was throwing out the GFS when they put "potential too low" for next Thursday. It has been steady with a decent severe setup somewhere in the Plains in that timeframe for several runs now. That should at least warrant a "predictability too low" even if they aren't confident enough in magnitude/placement to delineate a 15% risk area.

WI-511 site says 16/60 is closed at the bridge going out of Columbus eastbound, but no closure on 73 at this time.

Apparently there is now significant flooding in Fond du Lac, Lodi and Darlington.

With the nature of the storm mode we had today, and lack of the usual wrenches like coastal convection or upscale growth/cell interference... I have a feeling we were just a few more degrees in the dewpoint/a couple hundred more j/kg in the lowest 3km removed from multiple events the caliber of Beauregard-Smith's Station.

My bad, I hadn't looked at the CC for awhile. Goodness. Still, they should then change the "radar indicated rotation" to "radar confirmed tornado."

It may or may not be accurate, but I wish they wouldn't use the "large and extremely dangerous" wording without visual confirmation of such, or at the very least a couplet and TDS that supports it. The generic "radar indicated rotation" is not enough.

Numerous road closures in southern Wisconsin due to flooding, including some not too far from you, Geoboy. SR-44 between Marcellon and Dalton, and SR-68 between Fox Lake and Waupun.

This day resembles several infamous days such as 4/3/74 and 11/10/02 in the area threatened. Obviously today was much more conditional and probably won't have has much coverage of significant severe (otherwise it would have been a high risk with PDS watches in effect), but certainly the potential for several sig tors from Alabama to IN/OH.

Dear atmosphere, If we're going to have severe weather events, could you please at least make it a clear-cut high risk, PDS day? When was the last time there was one of those in Dixie? 4/28/14? The Plains? 4/14/12? OH Valley? 3/2/12? Enough with these conditionally nasty days, some of which underperform like last Saturday and some of which produce something like 3/3 or today? Sincerely, The entire U.S. weather enterprise

Was NOT expecting to see the sun today. Forecast high might have been too low. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Add the 06Z HRRR to the chorus. Has a couple strong supercells going over IN as early as 17Z tomorrow. It oversold 2/23 and last Saturday a bit (did pretty well with 3/3). I haven't really paid much attention to the HRWs before, but I might have to start.