the_other_guy

It’s been freezing for 3 weeks. Enjoy the 48hour break!

Coldest night of season thus far (which surprised me) 34 degrees with frost.

Actually there is a correlation. That El Nino winter with the record blizzard was the one time with any significant snow. If you didn’t have that blizzard, Central Park would’ve recorded 2 inches of snow that winter. Go back and look at the records of every time it has snowed before the final week in November. The winter that followed was bad if you liked snow. I don’t know if it’s a pure coincidence or if it’s reflective on a pattern...But that’s what history tells us in New York City

Isnt there a statistic... If we get a significant measurable snow before the last week of November, it has always led to a below normal snowfall winter? That said, if you like snowy winters, history tells us you dont want to see snow now.

Statistically, that isnt correct. It has been below normal (so far) 12-13 days this month depending on location around region

It has been well below normal for two weeks. Similar pattern to Sept 17 Jan 18. To say this month has been “warm” is glossing over a new situation. We are having zero sum months or months with minor negative/positive departures that are characterized by two extreme air masses negating each other. A new exterme in a decade of extremes.

38. No frost

Sharp cutoff in that Oct 2011 storm around Maspeth, Queens. Everything east of that got little to nothing. We had to shovel in Park Slope. It all melted the next day

More banter, but also relevant given the patterns we have seen twice in the last 13 months: Anyone else worried about the extreme flip pattern from Sept 2017 and January 2018 returning after this cool snap? If that pattern holds, mid November, thru much of December would be AN, correct? I believe that we are expecting an El Nino December as well...

Why isnt anyone talking about the cool (seasonal) day tomorrow that seemed to pop up over last 24 hours? This is no longer 4 straight days of 80, correct?

Clearing in Eastern Suffolk. Wonder if temps overperform out this way? Already 69F El Nino usually makes coast wetter and warmer than normal with chances for big storms (and if timing is right) snow. Usually back loaded winters with warm starts. That scary December without a day below freezing in NYC was a strong El Nino.

Starting to see color on the leaves in central Westchester. Today is the first day that I really notice it in the wooded areas… The nights with low temperatures in the 50s have helped. So I don’t think the colors will be necessarily late. This is a nice September weather we’re having. Not like it is been in the 80s. (although that may come Sunday) It is shocking how warm the overnight lows have been within the city limits on top of the already warm low temps region wide.

I went thru the Queens tornadoes a few years ago. Went right thru Bayside. I have never seen a T storm with the intensity of the one pushing through western Westcheter right now. The sky was lit up like noon, trees swaying, torrential rain. It lasted around 15 minutes. Glad to see it go. Frankly, it was scary

49 this morning. Coldest morning yet

Sprain, Bronx River, Hutch, Saw Mill Pkwys all have sections closed for flooding. Rain has been relentless between moderate and heavy since noon.

Central Ave in Westchester at 1pm. 59 degrees, heavy rain. Heat is on

I understand the dynamics going on in the background....But these statements are very early on and speculative.

Wasnt this 7 day stretch supposed to be 7 AN? I like sexy, skimpy halloween costumes... but dont know if I believe the forecast yet

Correct. Sept-thru Dec seems most effected. The back-loaded winter has been effected by two record Februarys in a row. To answer your question Long Beach, there is a lot of good stuff on here. The LR speculation updated every few days isnt very accurate. More importantly, if we are looking at AN/BN months, it fails to account for extremes like last September or January (which seems to be happening with greater frequency) that start out with a record in one direction, end with a record in a different direction and on paper come out...normal. Was last winter a torch? Surely 6 weeks of above normal temps would indicate that, right? Except, it wasn't.

You guys make me laugh. Especially with that LR forecast that gets posted every day. Last year we were told in November that every month until May was a torch. I particularly liked that post. I remember it well every time I read a LR forecast post. I remembered it well as I was trying to thaw pipes on New Years Day. And I remembered in during the record warm February...and the subsequent March snows. Put the fall jackets and snow shovels away boys. It ain’t happenin...

Anyone else noticing the opposite effect of too much rain on trees? Leaves that were lush a month ago are browing. Trees that were full are thinning...I could now see the street down the hill. I believe We’ve had too much rain and not enough sun

No offense, people die from an inch of snow or a wet roadway after 5 minutes of rain. Just humanity and luck (or lack of it) The hurricane shouldnt be minimized...but this is what happens when you have cable news, social media and the EVIL weather channel hyping things up for ratings day after day. ”Why Florence is a storm like no other” from cnn.com the other day. Every hurricane that hits the US now is the biggest, baddest, most scary storm ever...and it never rained this much or moved this slow and and and... Or it is a Category 1 storm hitting the Outer Banks. And it will suck. And there will be some damage. And some people will need to be rescued. And some people didnt leave. And some people will die. And there will be flooding. And , yes, there will be storm surge! And it isnt unusal...for a hurricane...in North Carolina...at all.

Only people from the neighborhood know “Old Howard Beach” with its one way streets all pointed in a convenient direction to keep outsiders out. Forget Hamilton Beach!

How many Septembers in a row well above normal now? 4? 5? I’m negating cool start last year as Mother Nature negated it and then some. Scary times ahead for fall lovers

It is more than the UHI. The increased moisture content in the air slows the temp swings. Dry air heats and cools faster. Throw in the UHI and you get morning temps a few degrees either side of 80 in NYC. The big story of this summer is not the heat, but the relentless dewpoints. It leads to higher low temps, steamier day time temps and increased convective activity. If, and I say if, this is what NY summers look like in the future...we are in for a world of hurt. You can imagine entire summers without getting below 70, with many evenings staying around 80. Scary stuff