the_other_guy

2015 wasnt enjoyable...it was scary. There was something genuinely unsettling about it. This December actually had a great run of below normal temperatures for the first two weeks. It was preceded by a below normal November with snow. It is now turned into a run-of-the-mill El Nino December and possibly a run-of-the-mill El Niño winter...Which aren’t historically great for New York City. I see 97-98 a lot over the last few days. It was either 96-97 or that one that was filled with cutters. Mr G used to say “White to wet.” It happened all winter long. That winter has been on my mind. Time will tell.

Last winter. For 7 weeks, it was a week away. It did eventually come though. patience is a virtue...

Not directed at you at all. Just a general post...we keep talking about historical records with hope for January and saving the winter. Look at all of history then. Early Nov snow, El Nino...history says we will see one or two moderate to big snowstorms (possibly very late) and have a lot of waiting around in between. Generalizing El Nino in NYC ... warm, wet, stormy. Exactly what we are seeing.

At the moment, Stop looking at Decemeber through the prism of past years. If you wanted to use the prism of past years, our winter was screwed the minute we had 6 inches of early Nov snow. It cant work both ways...you believe past is indicative of the future, you have to embrace it all...not just the convenient parts. Back to this December, the pattern just isnt there. If the models posted by various users on here are to be used to facilitate discussion and predictions...the pattern change is 10 days away. And has been 10 days away for the past 2 weeks. Even the NYE snow is now a cutter At what point is winter considered “saved?” Late January, Big February, Giant March snowstorm? All subjective. At this point December thru Jan 7 looks gone. We will know shortly if that gets extended til Jan 14

We had a couple of weeks of subfreezing temps at night and several days below freezing. I dont know how anyone is seeing flies, bugs or plants alive. As for the Dec/Nov swap, the problem is the climatology doesnt allow for a winter month-autumn month swap. You are trading an warm early winter month for a cool late autumn month. We dont get much to show for it. Not lost in all this warming (as others have pointed out) Dec, Feb, Sept and October seem to be flash points for warming. Nov, Mar and Jun seem the least affected and prone to BN departures. Why is that? That is the big question

Pretty sure Dec 95 was had a white xmas in NYC. Had 8 inches or snow on around the 22nd. Sometime around 2000 we had a rain to snow event that clobbered NYC on xmas day. Last xmas, many of us a few miles north of city had a white xmas. Just throwing that out there. What has disappeared is the cold air around xmas week. But that is more recent then the 90s

It’s been 10 days away for a week now. I think we got into a dog chasing its tail situation last year during our 7 week winter break. Im just happy most of xmas week will be in the 40s. You take the small things...

Lot of frost this morning. Right up there with the most frost I’ve seen the season

Growing up in Queens, I developed a rule of thumb that worked well. If I had to shovel around xmas decorations on the front steps...the winter ahead was a good or decent one. If I didnt, the winter ahead was not even decent. For a kid observing this, it was shockingly consistent. Snow in Decembers leads to snowy winters. This rule of thumb has been turned upside down in the last 15 years by huge storms. 2015 was a perfect example. Awful winter for snow before and after a historic storm...that melted almost as fast as it fell. 2015 could have easily looked like the 1995 el nino season. Our big storm that year gave us 10 inches of snow (ended as rain) for most of our season total. Our big snows increasingly involve luck. If you dismiss the mid November snow as “threading the needle” or luck, look at what we have had thus far...bad timing, and now a lack of fundamentals, a questionable el nino. In other words, muddled

Lot of drama on this site over a warm week or two. Looks like lots of days in the mid 40s to finish out Dec. So what? Is this 2015 where flowers are still alive in the pots outside? Or do we have a hefty snow and lots of sub freezing nights in the books already? Just to frame, the LR forecast didn’t forecast second half October cold, November below normal or cold start to Dec, yet the emotional swings with each swing of the LR du jour is rapid. Enjoy the holidays.

Man is that scary. I said something last year to that effect...If you told me to bet 50 on Christmas versus 30 I would put money on 50. There has been a spike in warm weather from the 3rd to 4th week in December almost every year in recent memory. Last year we got lucky many of us saw a white xmas with the start of a cold pattern and a quick 2 inches xmas eve.

December passed? You can be negative and it’s OK. I Agree with you...and you turn. Something could happen Christmas week. Doesnt look like it will. Temps look marginal in the 40s. Pattern looks like cutters prevail.

That sunday morning event was 1/6/14. JFK closed after a plane skid off the runway. https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/airplane-skids-jfk-runway-article-1.1566762%3FoutputType%3Damp

How about the Valentines Day sleet storm? I believe 07 or 06. Still an “ice” storm. That has to be the best sleet stom I ever saw in NYC and came at the tail end of a quiet winter. But I do remember the 94 ice storm. Set the basis for a great winter! I was in 7th grade and never fell as much before or after as I did that year!

They fired a very high commissioner over storm. Everybody is shaken after that You don’t know what the mayor is going to do he is inept CYA A good rule of thumb

Light snow in westchester this morning. Is this the long awaited December snow storm I keep reading about?

Last year was a white xmas for westchester and north

Fair point, but El Niños featuring one or two mega storms usually goes hand and hand with warm weather, especially in December. This has been a cold, dry pattern. It will be interesting to see how the second half of Dec plays out.

No one that does math will laugh. This cold pattern has no snow. 14-22 look warm. That leaves just over a week for something to happen...if the forecasted cold returns. The forecasts telling you about a stormy cold pattern the last week of Dec also said the snowblower would be running this evening. You start running out of days in the month...

Not when snow occurs early in November. There is a historic sharp line in the third week. If major snow falls before that, the winter after has been relatively light on snow. There are a couple of exceptions...and they all involve one big storm. Again, there is no science behind it. Just historical precedent. Someone mentioned a lack of 6 inch plus November and Decembers...it goes beyond that.

1989...early November snow...meh rest of winter. Like every winter that had an early November major snowfall. A couple had 1 big storm...but most were below normal in snowfall. Fighting history this year.

No, that was scary. And El Nino on steroids. If I never see a month like that again, it will be too soon.

Up at hunter today. Around 4 inches on ground with a steady snow all day. Spectacular November conditions. Perhaps the best I ever experienced in NE.

Forecasts aside, the scope of below normal continuing would be unusual for the 2010s, and unusual for a sorta el nino year in December. Also, historically speaking, a 6 inch snowstorm that early in November usually messes up snow chances for the rest of the season. Even if years ended up above normal in that scenario, it is usually associated with one big storm for the bulk of it. Not saying that that can’t happen, but we would be buccing historical trends. In other words, Buckle Up

What are the winds like for the parade? That set up is concerning for gusty NW winds, which could ground balloons for first time since the Cat and the Hat debacle in the 90s