the_other_guy

23F Unbelievable that it hasnt been that cold in a while

If these models hold, it follows the pattern that the models have had all season week out storm looks ok->storm looks marginal for extended period->storm with marginal setup looks better 2-3 days out -> models finally give in to negative fundamentals and show a non event for NYC-> actual event is a non winter event Anyone else notice this thus far this season? It is almost as if we as a forum are looking at too closely at every run and dismissing the basic fundamentals of a marginal (or worse) set up in the name of hope

Dont bet on it from latest runs Big warm up late next week Fat Lady isnt singing yet, but she has entered the building and will start warming up soon

Thank you As I said above, several days AN...as of now

Wasnt that the cutter winter just like this one?

Next week looks to have several AN days

Please...lets give this a rest already Last week I was running shirtless (and sweating) And there was talk of a six-inch plus snowstorm this weekend when it was very obvious that we had another cutter Now, onto the 24th... When the good stuff is always 10 days away on models that arent reliable 10 days out...you are in trouble I will get flamed for this...and frankly I dont care...Good winters dont start like this. Yes, someone is going to post an analogue from the 1930s or 1940s and tell me I am wrong...but the vast majority of time in NYC, if you have a flaming bag of dog poop through 1/20, your winter is in that bag. At this point, hope for a 94-95 11 incher followed by some biting cold to get your fill. Anything else will be a bonus. (that also ended in rain that garbage winter)

Yeh but that Blob of Green up to Saginaw doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling for the back end

And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same Cutter to rain Let’s see how last week of January does

I think guys on here really latched onto an extreme pattern change on a 70 degree weekend The truth is, even our colder patterns have been bad Too many people salivating for a front end dump from a cutter next weekend. That was December. Frankly, yawn, especially if you live surrounded by concrete. Last winter was crappy. The winter before had an extended crappy period but was saved by tail end storms. Jury still out here...but fast forward through this upcoming week of +10 and we are at 1/20 with nothing to show for it. 44F at 1030pm. Still 9 degrees above the normal high for the day.

The sun is down at it is still close to 60° in Westchester Amazing

Ill take nothing on the ground in NYC post storm if I was putting $$ down

We have never seen a prolonged stretch of warm weather like this. We have never seen temperatures close to 70° at night in the middle of January. walk outside right now in shorts and a T-shirt sun is coming out to our west… You have never seen anything like this before on January 11 I don’t know what the rest of the winter holds, but this stretch of January weather has been simply unprecedented. It is time to stop comparing this to previous warm winters and acknowledge we are in a new league now. The cooler week ahead features temperatures at least 10° above normal with two days in the mid 50s. That is the big cool down coming tonight. Unprecedented

The cutter for next weekend that has been like every other storm this season...and last season What are you looking at?

63F at 6am on 1/12 That really says it all

Simplistic, but valid points cold or warm, the pattern isnt there for the NYC metro to get snow. It has been like that for a year. My parents live in Whitestone. They have not had any appreciable snow on the ground that lasted more than a day or two coming up on 2 years Last year, even the November storm was gone in less than 24 hours. They had a light accumulation in March that stuck around for a few days Lost in snow totals that get washed away, is the fact that most of NYC has not had prolonged snow cover since March 2018. That is a terrible pattern. And it shows no signs of changing

Easily

I put up the Christmas lights at the end of November in a T-shirt. Taking them down today in a tank top Our new normal for better or worse

Anybody else think we bust high today? Look at that sun!

Sorry to tell you, but we’re experiencing it right now This continued level of warmth for three weeks straight in January is simply unprecedented We will get saved because the last week turns colder… But if this pattern that started on December 21 started a little later, We would’ve easily set the warmest January ever this month This level of sustained warmth is simply unprecedented, the only thing close is December 2015 But if you stick around, you’re going to see this broken again in the next few years Im becoming convinced that the warm winters with periods of cold are here to stay. No cold air from 1/1-1/19. 70 today and tomorrow Simply amazing and historic

48F at 8 am

I flew over the lakes yesterday. Right under the UP of Michigan Amazing how little of the lakes are frozen this year and how little snow is on the ground in the Upper Mid West

31F for our “cold” morning Just killed a mosquito in my kitchen If that doesnt sum up this winter...I dont know what does

I wouldnt bet on it happening. And thats the beauty of long term averages, a few large anomalies dont move the needle too much. If it did happen, given the garbage we see now, your best chance is a big March and November storm (sure to melt the next day) with nothing contributed in January February and December.

I flew out at 730. Nothing on the ground Snow was north of the Conduit