the_other_guy

Hey, I really wanted to know how you got that range. You took it sarcastically. Sad. Like this follow up post

Really over blowing a few days in the low 70s this week. Going to be a long winter 41F Wading River

Can you share the method behind prediction? I ask because I am always curious how people get to a specific range several months out

I think the analysis is a little melodramatic, but he is onto something about that El Nino. It was scary warm that December and something seems to have snapped. Since then, extreme warmth at several points in the winter is the new normal. When was the last time we had a prolonged stretch with snow on the ground? Our snow has become like Denver...a dump and a rapid melt. Historically, that hasnt been the case in NYC. We shall see if this pattern sticks, but the warmth wont let up. Even our cool months like this fall are still AN

Amazing that just N and W of Manhattan has a much smaller departure from normal than Central LI. I wonder if that holds going forward towards winter

The smoke (or high clouds) never allowed it to get as warm as predicted. Happened about 2 PM. That said, quite mild at 8pm

55F Noticeable color on the trees in Southern Westchester now. Early this year

Yes. Could be good for us if it continues to winter thru winter. We havent seen this prolonged pattern in a while

45F this morning I dont understand the complaints about the low dews. Feels like the Rockies. Cool, crisp, dry. I wish we had it more often. And the lows are over performing due to the dryness!

If it means keeping outdoor spaces open, case counts down, and my kids going to school...hell yes!

47F this am. I’ll be the one to say it… It’s too early for this shit… Especially with this pandemic going on. Of all years we needed warm weather and a pleasant fall

49F Colder than yesterday morning

Dare I say it is pleasant out with a stiff N wind off water. A bit surprised

68F, rain, stiff east/northeast wind off the water for past few days in Wading River Feels like fall. Love it

finally a pleasant day. Almost Sept like. 77F. Not to humid

very interesting yet scary statistics

Nothing burger in Wading River. Occasional squalls when a band moves through. Occasional sun. Mainly just fast moving clouds and some wind. Water is a bit odd. Swells from the NE. Wind from the SE. The effect on moored boats is to be pushed off short to the NW yet get a broadside slam from the east.

I think the raw weather is really getting to people because of the pandemic. At this time people need sunshine and warmth for mental reasons. That hasn’t happened

I called this in February. You cant run +5 or so for the year unless the earth is on fire. If summer has been running warm (it has) If fall (sans Nov) has been running warm (it has) And you find yourself +5 two months into the new year...something has to give somewhere. Would anybody in their right mind call for a BN July or August in the 2010s? It would be unusual The relief valve has been spring. Made perfect sense that it would occur this year

39F I have spent the last few weeks in Florida...funny how the early “leaf out” never really occurred Forsythias are blooming during the first week of April...as they should A little early, but nothing extreme

Lost in all this virus hysteria is how extraordinarily warm it continues to be. At some point, during a slow news day, some local channel is going to realize it has been 5 degrees above normal for 3 months straight 41F Of interest, on my arrival into JFK the other day, I worked in LGA weather into my PA. First time I ever did that. The JFK weather wasnt representative of the weather at the destination. JFK was at 8C and LGA was 19C...an astronomical difference. Of course, the light SW wind off the water will do that in March

I am not optimistic about spring There is no way we could continue +5+6 indefinitely And for some reason we are to believe that the pattern that has been stuck in place for the past couple of winters won’t play out in March/Aprillike it always has... a warm spring would be the only part of this re run that is not a re run Frankly, I just dont believe it. Time will tell

9F Shocked to see single digits this morning.

34F Mist I can’t remember the last time I saw a snowflake in the area

If you take out the first three weeks of December where are we in relation to the warmest winter ever? We have to be close right? I certainly never remember winter that has just been so consistently warm every day