mikem81
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Everything posted by mikem81
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GFS looks interesting 10Z to 15Z tomorrow morning...
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12Z Icon has perfect track FWIW. I dont buy the precip type on pivotal with that track and intensity.
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Reasons 1 and 2 are all you need plus add that its March. Need perfect track that starts far east enough and get captured by northern stream before passing LI and gets tucked in but not too close. Its basically last night's UKIE run and maybe some EPS members
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This will all come down to band pivots and if precip can bring BL temps into lower 30's. The main slug of precip is rain almost up to 84. After 0Z the models all have the storm pivot and the coastal gets going and really will be a nowcast, but the airmass is pretty subpar right now
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Looks like well get a full night of cooling followed by no sunshine tomorrow... that might help keep baseline temps down
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Its a double edged sword. We have a stronger coastal closer to the coast bringing in heavier precip but also warmer 925 and BL temps... Lets see what tomorrow meso models say
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We need a faster intensification closer to the coast. It can happen and trends during the final 3 days usually go north except when we need it.
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We actually a further NW and stronger coastal...
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Interesting to see the meso models bumbed slightly north and with more precip (.2-.3) in NYC. GFS also with similar amounts.
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Interested to see if the south trend continues at 12Z
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925MB well below 0
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Almost all models converging on heaviest axis of precip going right through the NYC metro area and areas just to the west with highest precip amounts
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40/20 split here in western Nassau. right between north and south shore. Could see 2 or 6. Keeping an eye on temps between now and 7pm. Would like to see it down to 36 or so before precip..
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I still think the metro best bet is this initial slug...
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Radar looks much better than what the HRRR currently depicts near SE Penn https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad
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Seems like this will all come down to banding. One band from the initial WAA around 7-10pm and another potential band from the coastal forming around midnight to 5am. I would not worry about current temps. Focus on dew points...
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clouds starting to roll in so hopefully temps have reached peaks...
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Look at dew points....
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RGEM came in slightly colder
