Pretty consistent ensemble support a week out. Need earlier coastal and weaker primary. EURO known to hold that primary into the lakes the longest at this range.
I think water temp this time of year make SWFE better than if it were December. Ocean is at 40 instead of 55 so the SW wind is less of an issue but it can still get ugly at 850 and sleet...
Wow thats a great look and much sooner than we thought....seems like by next weekend...I am always cautious of rushing pattern changes though so lets see how quickly the PNA return to positive.
NAM may be on drugs but it looks like a light event and close to something more if the coastal had slightly more time to move north before being kicked east...
Even the GFS (verbatim) shows very little precip after the rain tonight... Nothing to track other than next weeks ocean storm for now which needs some big time improvements...otherwise seasonal and dry.
All the models have 2-3 "wide right" coastals next week. Hopefully one can work out... Looks like all ensembles agree on cold for next 2 weeks (especially week 2)