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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    12z Friday runs
  2. mikem81
    These are absolutely absurd jumps for the EURO. It’s essentially acting like the NAM which shows how volatile this setup is
  3. mikem81
    I thought the 18Z RGEM was much improved and about 100 miles north with precip shield int SNJ
  4. mikem81
    FWIW, the 12Z EURO was much better than 0Z just not as good as the off run 6Z or prior 18Z
  5. mikem81
    AI is OTS
  6. mikem81
    Surprise
  7. mikem81
    6z EURO is 50-100 miles from something huge. Eastern LI gets a foot. Anyone have the EPS?
  8. mikem81
    We needed that 100 mile shift west to stay in the game and we got it
  9. mikem81
    The orientation of the trough coming down from SE Canada continues to trend more and more NW to SE as opposed to E to W as it lowers in the Upper Midwest. I think this is being caused by a lobe in SE canada but cant confirm. Its on the EC and not GFS as shown below EC-AIFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits AIGFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits
  10. mikem81
    Cant imagine this was written after the 12Z guidance
  11. mikem81
    The problem is that this lobe in trending weaker and north and east not stronger and west
  12. mikem81
    The GFS was 500 miles off on the other hand.... GFS Model – MSLP & Precip for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits
  13. mikem81
    Last Tuesday 12Z EURO (it ended up further north by 100 miles or so, but not 500 miles) ECMWF Model – MSLP & Precip for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits
  14. mikem81
    Can you show this on the current model map? Would be curious what pieces we actually need to change and why the GFS is showing close to a major blizzard (still escapes east 6 hours early) versus the complete miss Euro/UK solutions
  15. mikem81
    Not sure exactly what to make of this, but tomorrow is really last day for material changes from OTS to coastal. Its not going from nothing to storm in last 72 hours. Boxing Day was a long time ago and im hoping the models have improved since then
  16. mikem81
    Not sure we’ve ever seem a good storm when Euro is complete whiff 100 hours out
  17. mikem81
    This looks dead based on the EURO direction last few cycles.
  18. mikem81
  19. mikem81
    AI GFS looks NW of 06 by a bit as well.
  20. mikem81
    I think today is a day where each model can jump 200-250 miles in either direction. Once within 72-96 hours that’s much less likely as you get 50-100 mile moves and then the typical 25-50 shift within 24-48 hours
  21. mikem81
    Can anyone on here intelligently explain why this may or may not come the up the coast or go OTS? What are the main players on the field here
  22. mikem81
    Really bad trends overnight. Need to see some improvement in next 24 hours or this is over
  23. mikem81
    Comical how off the surface temps have been. Weather app has been estimating based on models and has been almost ten degrees too high all day compared to reality
  24. mikem81
    Seems like Long Island had best banding from 11am-2pm and got the snow it needed then to get close to a foot before the sleet. I think well see higher finals in NNJ and SNY close to 20 when all reporting is in, but not a huge disparity in the immediate metro area as the sleet line may have sugested
  25. mikem81
    I’m at an even foot here in garden city south. Had 10 inches of snow and at least 2 inches of sleet since 230pm when in flipped. Very hard to measure as I’m sure some compacted but 12 inches in Nassau south of the LIE is a win
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