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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    To be honest, I also have not seen the UKIE/CMC and EURO/GFS been so far apart in the scenarios as they were yesterday. It seems that at 12Z today they are all finally getting closer with a LP track somewhere between Cape May (EURO/GS) and Ocean City (CMC/UKIE) and then heading ENE
  2. mikem81
    Just for context. Its about 25 miles as the crow flies from White Plains to JFK. If the wind is out of the NE (with water temps in the low 40s anyway) it will really just come down to the track of the LP
  3. mikem81
    ERUO just shifted 30-50 miles south or so... One more of those and NYC is in the game, but that is a big ask
  4. mikem81
    If someone would actually explain what is the driving forces for the north or south (or stronger LP versus less potent) solutions that would be helpful for the group. Is it a matter of the northern stream phasing in and pulling a more dynamic storm closer to the coast and to what extent or is this just how fast colder air filters in? What should we be looking for on the upcoming run..
  5. mikem81
    By tomorrow 12Z runs the LP will be over Long Island.
  6. mikem81
  7. mikem81
    The EURO is too amped for NYC
  8. mikem81
    I DONT like where the GFS has gone the last few runs with the northern interaction pulling the LP into PA before transferring to the coast. That never ever works for NYC. The current CMC track however gives me some comfort...The EURO at 12Z will be big. If it goes north again, we are in trouble in the metro area
  9. mikem81
    no. Wayyyy too close to the coast.
  10. mikem81
    Has been snowing light to moderate here since 11AM. Not much accumulation on roads at all, but looks great outside and nice fresh powder on the old snow from Tuesday.
  11. mikem81
    Still going to need a 40-50 mile northward shift in the banding which is doable but not being depicted by any model
  12. mikem81
    The NAM is the weirdest model out there. I dont know how a LP can get 10mb stronger and be 30-40 miles north of its 12Z location and show less precip at the surface
  13. mikem81
    sign me up for this...
  14. mikem81
    LP is actually in a good spot for NYC/LI on the NAM and RGEM, just need something to capture it or slow it down from speeding East
  15. mikem81
    RGEM will be SE of 6Z
  16. mikem81
    Also shows just how much of a difference there is climate wise between Boston and NYC
  17. mikem81
    Really shows just how difficult it is to get Snow in NYC with a -PNA. Just doesnt happen anymore. SE flow at upper level and LP way too close to us
  18. mikem81
    Im worried that here in SW nassau that band just south of JFK might strengthen and come hit us. We are all over 5 inches here since midnight. Some areas closer to 8-9 near JFK
  19. mikem81
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad
  20. mikem81
    If only it was January.....
  21. mikem81
    This is insane and the radar from JFK to Mid nassau is exploding now...
  22. mikem81
    I dont think that is an accurate statement. Maybe Logan which is in the airport. But 4-5 inch reports last night at 10am within ten miles west of Logan which is like NYC to JFK
  23. mikem81
    I think someone in the area just west morristown area is going to report 6-8 inches based on the radar all day
  24. mikem81
    Radar also seems to show a band over jersey that hasnt moved all day. West of Newark area
  25. mikem81
    Sounds like Metro Boston didnt get much of anything which is really insane giving the low pressure location. That dual low in CT really screwed them the most.
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