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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    15Z SREF looks north again
  2. mikem81
    Yes both RGEM and Icon bumped slightly north. Maybe 25 miles or so. We’ll need a few more of those.. ideally we’d like to only need a 25 Mile north jog going into the event as these often end up slightly north of final modeling
  3. mikem81
  4. mikem81
    SREF mean for JFK went from .3 to .4 from 3Z to 9Z. Hopefully the better models will follow north
  5. mikem81
    It wasnt so north but i really was focusing on the strength and LP
  6. mikem81
    NAM well north at 12z but it sucked last night so we’ll see. Good trend though
  7. mikem81
    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0C-0-24-100-usa-rad
  8. mikem81
  9. mikem81
    This is our window
  10. mikem81
    only .1 falls after 6Z
  11. mikem81
    Looks like best precip is 0Z-6Z for the NYC metro. Mid-levels look good for first 3 hours. between 3Z-6Z is where NAM/GFS go to sleet and RGEM/EURO hang on to snow a bit longer...
  12. mikem81
    MJO: please no 10;1 maps for a SWFE
  13. mikem81
    GEFS is north of 6z and EPS similar to 6z which was pretty south of 0z
  14. mikem81
    GFS gonna be north
  15. mikem81
    MJO always love your enthusiasm, but please dont post 10:1 maps as it was way off for this morning on the Hrrr. Kuchera only.. looks similiar for this storm other than the coast literally
  16. mikem81
    Watch out for meso models picking up early precip shield. Anything before 12Z is snow. Anything between 12Z-15Z is question mark. After 15Z looks like drizzle. Not a high potential event, but could be a nice little lead off event for Sat Night and Tuesday Night.
  17. mikem81
    Has anyone been tracking the EURO AI performance versus the regular model?
  18. mikem81
    Love your posts since you add insight and reasoning. Can you elaborate on the above? I think the -EPO will be fighting the SE and western Atlantic Ridge in this setup
  19. mikem81
    Northern stream has looked pretty different so far on the NAM, ICON and RGEM. It seems to drop down much more to the west and allows the southern stream to get some energy slightly out ahead before crushing it OTS
  20. mikem81
    About 100 mile movement in a better direction 96 hours out
  21. mikem81
    NAVY and JMA with significant moves NW with much more interaction
  22. mikem81
  23. mikem81
  24. mikem81
    Not getting a 150 mile shift in the next 12 hours
  25. mikem81
    Agreed. A primary dying out over WV almost always meant coastal redeveloped in ideal spot for us...maybe next weekend Miller A will be better
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