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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    40/20 split here in western Nassau. right between north and south shore. Could see 2 or 6. Keeping an eye on temps between now and 7pm. Would like to see it down to 36 or so before precip..
  2. mikem81
    I still think the metro best bet is this initial slug...
  3. mikem81
    Radar looks much better than what the HRRR currently depicts near SE Penn https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad
  4. mikem81
    Seems like this will all come down to banding. One band from the initial WAA around 7-10pm and another potential band from the coastal forming around midnight to 5am. I would not worry about current temps. Focus on dew points...
  5. mikem81
    clouds starting to roll in so hopefully temps have reached peaks...
  6. mikem81
    Look at dew points....
  7. mikem81
  8. mikem81
    RGEM came in slightly colder
  9. mikem81
    6pm-midnight is the NYC metro snow window. After midnight midlevels have 50/50 chance of going to sleet/rain at least for southern areas. If we can get 2-4 inches by midnight anything on top is a bonus
  10. mikem81
    I think best bet for NYC area is a quick hit from 7pm to midnight if temps can cool with heavy WWA precip as UKIE and Euro show
  11. mikem81
    NAO going negative for first time since early December if this is correct and well timed for Tuesday storm if the confluence is strong enough
  12. mikem81
  13. mikem81
  14. mikem81
    The UKMET and EPS look much improved for Monday Night (interesting solutions with more precip in our area than ENE
  15. mikem81
    UKMET def came south
  16. mikem81
    primary made it much farther north. not a great look
  17. mikem81
    Look at the Ukie
  18. mikem81
  19. mikem81
    Coastal looks much for impressive then the upper level low right now at least at surface
  20. mikem81
    So it shifts west for US and east for them?
  21. mikem81
    I wouldnt be surprised if we had a winter event next week before the pattern changes day 10-15. AO rapidly rising; we usually have an event right before a pattern change. I think the Day 10-15 is ugly and then we can revaluate after 1/2 or so.
  22. mikem81
    We need more posts like this with some actual insight...
  23. mikem81
    I am assuming the CMC and Euro dont have a rising PNA like the GFS so there is a trough out west that forces this to cut into Chicago. Not sure what a -4 AO is good for at this point..
  24. mikem81
    trend today has been awful. cold this week followed by warm rain followed by very cold.
  25. mikem81
    More rain....
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