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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    What hours is this lobe forming and what do we look for in coming runs? we need some more analysis as opposed to wishful thinking
  2. mikem81
    Nope. Slower
  3. mikem81
    Never give up before the NAM is even in range...
  4. mikem81
    WFIW, the JMA at 72 also looks better than its prior run (which was already decent) with higher heights out east in front of the storm
  5. mikem81
    This was a good start to the 12Z lineup keeping in mind the normal trend on SWFE events is a north bump inside of 72 hours. I would want to be around 50 miles north of the heaviest snow axis at this point.
  6. mikem81
    I have no idea how this will play out but the ICON actually makes perfect sense. There is an area of Warm air advection precip that thumps the northern precip shield while a coastal takes over. There is a dry slot in between. Classis SWFE precip shield. Its just a matter of where the WAA makes it up to and where and when the coastal moves the energy to the coast.
  7. mikem81
    NAM can start to be used out to 60 hours or so for trends. Looks like tronger vort in the central US and less confluence than 6Z in SE canada
  8. mikem81
    Typically SWFE tend to amp up as they get closer. We actually fear this as it means mix to rain for our area and snow for New England. This is a rare event where we are hoping for the historic trend to occur and amp this just enough to get some good precipitation into our area with little fear precipitation type issues
  9. mikem81
    I dont think there will be more clarity on this until tomorrow afternoon when the energy is closer to the NW coast and the LP block starts to form in a certain spot in SE canada
  10. mikem81
    The NAM is not happening. Maybe SE MASS gets 3-6 inches. Maybe. Radar does not support the NAM at all.
  11. mikem81
    Did any of the models have the intense precip coming onshore now in SNJ?
  12. mikem81
    https://weather.cod.edu/ My favorite auto refresh radar site is down. Anyone with other good ones?
  13. mikem81
    NAM slightly north. Looks like .3-.4 of precip by 12Z tomorrow from SW to NE in NYC metro
  14. mikem81
    In that case look at the current radar. The northern bands are much further east of the southern part of the storm... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  15. mikem81
    It snows much longer up in the NYC area (at least on the models) based on the configuration of the precip shield..
  16. mikem81
  17. mikem81
    Similar amounts here in Garden City. Should finish between 6 and 7 depending on this last band.
  18. mikem81
    Someone in Suffolk may get a foot. will be much closer to 6 inches in Nassau
  19. mikem81
    Its my go to radar.. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0Q-1-12-100-usa-rad
  20. mikem81
    These are the good returns. Seems like another hour of heavy stuff east of NYC and 2-3 hours Suffolk east
  21. mikem81
    I think the 6-8 for area from Queens and East is a good call with some locally higher measurers from the typical suspects..
  22. mikem81
    Yes. I had 1.5 inches at 815 and almost up to 4 inches now
  23. mikem81
    This is the key. If this can pivot a bit instead of racing east, NYC/LI and C-NNJ can get a few more hours of SN+
  24. mikem81
    Moderate snow here in south garden city. Sticking already. 32.4 degrees
  25. mikem81
    Down to 998. Keep an eye on strength and location. SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis (noaa.gov)
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