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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    These are the good returns. Seems like another hour of heavy stuff east of NYC and 2-3 hours Suffolk east
  2. mikem81
    I think the 6-8 for area from Queens and East is a good call with some locally higher measurers from the typical suspects..
  3. mikem81
    Yes. I had 1.5 inches at 815 and almost up to 4 inches now
  4. mikem81
    This is the key. If this can pivot a bit instead of racing east, NYC/LI and C-NNJ can get a few more hours of SN+
  5. mikem81
    Moderate snow here in south garden city. Sticking already. 32.4 degrees
  6. mikem81
    Down to 998. Keep an eye on strength and location. SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis (noaa.gov)
  7. mikem81
  8. mikem81
  9. mikem81
    999 SLP
  10. mikem81
    Here is the LP. Keep an eye to see if it drops to 995 or below in next few hours...
  11. mikem81
    I wouldnt call the EURO 979 LP "weak" by any standards...
  12. mikem81
    Pretty decent agreement. SLP will track over the delmarva. The question remains whether it gets tucked a bit and strengthens by Cape May (NAM/GFS/RGEM) or goes due east (EURO/UKIE)
  13. mikem81
    Yes. NO one has sad this. Start time is approx midnight for light rain transitioning to Snow by 4-5am... Sunrise is close to 7AM.
  14. mikem81
  15. mikem81
    It would be helpful if someone could point to the current location and strength of the primary low so we can compare to the models...
  16. mikem81
    Both south of 6Z runs at 12Z
  17. mikem81
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024021212&fh=27&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=
  18. mikem81
    To be honest, I also have not seen the UKIE/CMC and EURO/GFS been so far apart in the scenarios as they were yesterday. It seems that at 12Z today they are all finally getting closer with a LP track somewhere between Cape May (EURO/GS) and Ocean City (CMC/UKIE) and then heading ENE
  19. mikem81
    Just for context. Its about 25 miles as the crow flies from White Plains to JFK. If the wind is out of the NE (with water temps in the low 40s anyway) it will really just come down to the track of the LP
  20. mikem81
    ERUO just shifted 30-50 miles south or so... One more of those and NYC is in the game, but that is a big ask
  21. mikem81
    If someone would actually explain what is the driving forces for the north or south (or stronger LP versus less potent) solutions that would be helpful for the group. Is it a matter of the northern stream phasing in and pulling a more dynamic storm closer to the coast and to what extent or is this just how fast colder air filters in? What should we be looking for on the upcoming run..
  22. mikem81
    By tomorrow 12Z runs the LP will be over Long Island.
  23. mikem81
  24. mikem81
    The EURO is too amped for NYC
  25. mikem81
    I DONT like where the GFS has gone the last few runs with the northern interaction pulling the LP into PA before transferring to the coast. That never ever works for NYC. The current CMC track however gives me some comfort...The EURO at 12Z will be big. If it goes north again, we are in trouble in the metro area
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