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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    Its a double edged sword. We have a stronger coastal closer to the coast bringing in heavier precip but also warmer 925 and BL temps... Lets see what tomorrow meso models say
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  5. mikem81
    We need a faster intensification closer to the coast. It can happen and trends during the final 3 days usually go north except when we need it.
  6. mikem81
    We actually a further NW and stronger coastal...
  7. mikem81
    Interesting to see the meso models bumbed slightly north and with more precip (.2-.3) in NYC. GFS also with similar amounts.
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    Interested to see if the south trend continues at 12Z
  10. mikem81
    925MB well below 0
  11. mikem81
    Almost all models converging on heaviest axis of precip going right through the NYC metro area and areas just to the west with highest precip amounts
  12. mikem81
    40/20 split here in western Nassau. right between north and south shore. Could see 2 or 6. Keeping an eye on temps between now and 7pm. Would like to see it down to 36 or so before precip..
  13. mikem81
    I still think the metro best bet is this initial slug...
  14. mikem81
    Radar looks much better than what the HRRR currently depicts near SE Penn https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad
  15. mikem81
    Seems like this will all come down to banding. One band from the initial WAA around 7-10pm and another potential band from the coastal forming around midnight to 5am. I would not worry about current temps. Focus on dew points...
  16. mikem81
    clouds starting to roll in so hopefully temps have reached peaks...
  17. mikem81
    Look at dew points....
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  19. mikem81
    RGEM came in slightly colder
  20. mikem81
    6pm-midnight is the NYC metro snow window. After midnight midlevels have 50/50 chance of going to sleet/rain at least for southern areas. If we can get 2-4 inches by midnight anything on top is a bonus
  21. mikem81
    I think best bet for NYC area is a quick hit from 7pm to midnight if temps can cool with heavy WWA precip as UKIE and Euro show
  22. mikem81
    NAO going negative for first time since early December if this is correct and well timed for Tuesday storm if the confluence is strong enough
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  25. mikem81
    The UKMET and EPS look much improved for Monday Night (interesting solutions with more precip in our area than ENE
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