mikem81
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Everything posted by mikem81
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UKMET def came south
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primary made it much farther north. not a great look
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Look at the Ukie
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Coastal looks much for impressive then the upper level low right now at least at surface
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So it shifts west for US and east for them?
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I wouldnt be surprised if we had a winter event next week before the pattern changes day 10-15. AO rapidly rising; we usually have an event right before a pattern change. I think the Day 10-15 is ugly and then we can revaluate after 1/2 or so.
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We need more posts like this with some actual insight...
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I am assuming the CMC and Euro dont have a rising PNA like the GFS so there is a trough out west that forces this to cut into Chicago. Not sure what a -4 AO is good for at this point..
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trend today has been awful. cold this week followed by warm rain followed by very cold.
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More rain....
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Looks like the CMC through 96
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Keep in mind the OP has 2 seperate systems. There is a LP that misses east followed by the stronger one that gets phased into the coast... Not sure if the GEFS is blending these all
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Yes, but.... trend is usually against us and west. I would much rather be seeing a bunch of OTS solutions right now. These rarely miss east of guidance
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It changes over to snow at end... Very strong and weird track
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GFS is rain as well. Looks like 0Z EURO
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It will be better than the CMC no matter what...
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the CMC looks like it will cut big time though
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The goal was to show that the GFS was actually most accurate 6 days out. The EURO and CMC were stronger and about 50-100 miles too far west with the secondary. Not saying this will happen with next Thurs/Fri Storm but the evolution is different with a LP coming up from the gulf and one coming into the lakes and then timing....
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There will be energy near the lakes and the interaction b/w the coastal and the lakes energy will determine strength and track. The OP has that piece phasing and dragging an extremely strong storm inland (looks like number 2 group). Number 3 cluster looks like a true cutter or cold front to me with no coastal. Cluster 1 is a BM track
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EURO CMC GFS
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So which model was most accurate 6 days out: Current LP
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12/15 - 12/16 Coastal/Winter Storm & Observations
mikem81 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Surprised how low amounts were in Scranton area. Crazy how you needed elevation here -
Here is 12Z
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It looks much better than 0Z:
