mikem81

There will be energy near the lakes and the interaction b/w the coastal and the lakes energy will determine strength and track. The OP has that piece phasing and dragging an extremely strong storm inland (looks like number 2 group). Number 3 cluster looks like a true cutter or cold front to me with no coastal. Cluster 1 is a BM track

EURO CMC GFS

So which model was most accurate 6 days out: Current LP

Surprised how low amounts were in Scranton area. Crazy how you needed elevation here

Here is 12Z

It looks much better than 0Z:

EURO looks much better to me than last few runs

Next week's storm has a much different evolution than tomorrow's. It almost looks like a redeveloping clipper that comes out of canada in front of the artic front. It also has a much colder airmass in front of it than today's. Who knows what it will bring.

I am very confused by the mood in here. The next 2 weeks look great after the Friday rainstorm. the Canadian OP has a cutter next week. The ensembles and GFS/Euro OP all look good with plenty of coastal potential

well said. Ocean temp is at 51 at the station I usually use for my area (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065) Winter threats are hard to even take seriously in NYC/LI until after 12/15 given the ocean temps. I would hate a perfect pattern in early December as we'd still have issues. I think people got excited by the early -AO/NAO where the reality is that we are finally entering a more workable time period starting next week. I would still keep an eye on the Friday storm given the block and the weird track but it was always a long shot for the metro

I know its the ICON, but watching a huge storm getting absolutely shredded to pieces is fascinating From this: to this:

ANYONE LOOKING AT LAST 2 RUNS OF THE CMC?

I prefer to see SST's below 50 in the NYC area before even following winter events unless the setup in perfect. Right now, SST around 52 25 miles south of JFK. The pattern being perfect is much better if its after 12/20

Take with the typical NAVY grain of salt, but noticeable this close to an event

Thought the GEPS was interesting in terms of track

Heavy now here down to 33

Anyone have good link to Radar. Some are down..

Its snowing here is SW Nassau. 34.7 degrees. was 36 an hour ago

32/14 right now. No way dew points for supposed to be this low now… seems like temps should fall into high 20s with steady precip unless winds really turn off ocean quickly

DP forecast is way off so far...

The NAM is known for insane shifts like this. Really just can’t take it seriously until it has 2-3 runs in a row of something similar

December is much more common for huge gradients on the city when the Atlantic is 55 degrees...

THE GFS has a colder look early on but the primary made in father north before the weak coastal. All comes down to where coastal pops up (delmarva or LI)...