mikem81
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Everything posted by mikem81
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Its coming to a rapid end...
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I dont think so. I think the precip will quickly shut off in next 2-3 hours but hope you are correct
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Next time people look at the NAM, just remember this is how much precip this morning's 12Z run said would fall today... Granted the Snow is not sticking around the metro, but I would say at least .5 QPF so far since 8am
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Can someone explain the convection and the chances it represents the real LP locations or just giving difficulty representing accurate surface representations
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Either way that’s an absurd ensemble spread this close
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This is another solution
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Even the GEFS is laughable as there are hundreds of miles between LP options. Clearly factoring double lows
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GFS looks interesting 10Z to 15Z tomorrow morning...
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12Z Icon has perfect track FWIW. I dont buy the precip type on pivotal with that track and intensity.
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Reasons 1 and 2 are all you need plus add that its March. Need perfect track that starts far east enough and get captured by northern stream before passing LI and gets tucked in but not too close. Its basically last night's UKIE run and maybe some EPS members
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This will all come down to band pivots and if precip can bring BL temps into lower 30's. The main slug of precip is rain almost up to 84. After 0Z the models all have the storm pivot and the coastal gets going and really will be a nowcast, but the airmass is pretty subpar right now
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Looks like well get a full night of cooling followed by no sunshine tomorrow... that might help keep baseline temps down
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Its a double edged sword. We have a stronger coastal closer to the coast bringing in heavier precip but also warmer 925 and BL temps... Lets see what tomorrow meso models say
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We need a faster intensification closer to the coast. It can happen and trends during the final 3 days usually go north except when we need it.
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We actually a further NW and stronger coastal...
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Interesting to see the meso models bumbed slightly north and with more precip (.2-.3) in NYC. GFS also with similar amounts.
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Interested to see if the south trend continues at 12Z
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925MB well below 0
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Almost all models converging on heaviest axis of precip going right through the NYC metro area and areas just to the west with highest precip amounts
