Its only 38 degrees at the surface because the LP tracks over LI. Anywhere 40-50 miles west of the LP tack with the airmass in place will do fine. No point at all looking at specifics this far out. Simply look at potential which is a lot of precip coming into cold air in place which hasnt happened since 12/17
1. Never trust GFS 2m temps.
2. This is as thread the needle as they come anyway as the storm would need to produce its own cold air from 700MB down through 850-925 to BL.
3. Basically need stronger storm in perfect spot. Look at the 12Z Canadian track for example....