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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    What does 18Z EURO show for Sunday Night?
  2. mikem81
    Sunday Night still Rain?
  3. mikem81
    Agreed. upper levels are too warm for snow as depicted on the models. The storm will have to create its own cold air at the 850 level to snow in the City area. If its a heavy cold rain but sets up the sunday storm more south I will take it
  4. mikem81
    Its amped at end of run for sunday night. rain like the Euro
  5. mikem81
    The LP is north and stronger, precip is south and colder...
  6. mikem81
    still NW of all other guidance except the canadian. Not good for NYC, but slightly SE of 0Z
  7. mikem81
    6Z was better, But this is very similiar to 0Z. still slightly NW, but hopefully this is the farthest NW is shows. Keep in mind this is not tracing up the coast over the water. It goes SW to NE from the lower midwest so it would exit off the DE coast. Would prefer this to be just SE of the benchmark for NYC to be mostly snow
  8. mikem81
    UKMET has been most consistent so far with the Sunday Night event. Last 3 runs all look very similiar
  9. mikem81
    UKMET looks nice. a 997 maybe just inside the BM
  10. mikem81
    Is it me or is the UKMET a 997 on the BM
  11. mikem81
    Old FFS ticked NW; new GFs ticked SE. go figure...
  12. mikem81
    ICON trended a bit SE and weaker for Sunday Night
  13. mikem81
    GFS gets pushed east a little too early, but decent run and exactly what we wanted to see after the EURO. GFS has a huge amount of cold air coming in as the storm hits and thats what shuns it a bit east.
  14. mikem81
    EURO has been unreliable this week. The Saturday storm (which is no longer) was an inch of rain just 2 days ago. The ensembles should be interesting. The GEFS and GEPS are all offshore near the BM with not even one member running inland
  15. mikem81
    https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2019022712/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20190304-0600z.html Looks like a good track, but these maps are tough to read
  16. mikem81
    What does the UKMET show for Monday?
  17. mikem81
    HRRR just doesnt seem to line up with current radar which almost looks like everything is getting shunned offshore.. We shall see.
  18. mikem81
    I doubt anyone goes above freezing until the dry slot comes through around 6-7pm. Temps are stuck in mid to upper 20's region wide and obviously colder well NW
  19. mikem81
    HRRR running 1-2 degrees cooler (surface temps) at 14Z run then 13Z through noon...
  20. mikem81
    27/21 here in Western Nassau County. Steady Snow. Expecting sleet by noon the latest... Lets see if the HP causes any last minute November like surprises..
  21. mikem81
    It cut precip in half through 7pm tommorrow.
  22. mikem81
    Gets above freezing around 7-8pm.... about .75 LE falls before then.
  23. mikem81
    Nice to see the NAM/RGEM tick slightly colder for tomorrow. Maybe we can at least see an inch or 2 before the sleet and then the wash out
  24. mikem81
    pivotalweather. great site. just click on the map location for soundings. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php
  25. mikem81
    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html#picture I always find these panels good for GFS. Surprised to see almost .6 LE fall before 850 line reaches NYC/LI with even the GFS keeping surface temps in the 30's the entire duration except right along the south shore and eastern LI
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