mikem81

GFS=best case scenario for NYC proper....

Tellies look much better this morning. AO spike is short and crashes quickly; PNA rises; NAO moves similar to AO with quick rise and then falls back to near neutral... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

I a bit suprised that the weekend system would get to the west with the NOA going and negative as its been for a month or 2...

2 points. 1. The models simply cant get the long range past day 7 correct and will continue to flip flop as with conflicting telecommunications (dipping PNA, NAO, rising EPO, and unclear AO. MJO clearly avoiding the warm phases in the near term as well. 2. Even if the pattern for the next 20-30 days looked like complete and utter crap and was locked in (counter to point 1 above). who cares? It would take a nearly perfectly times storm with perfect PNA/NAO/AO combination for it to actually snow and stick in November (and even early December). In the meantime, any small snow and cold is just a bonus and way ahead of schedule. The artic blast of early November completely got everyone to false start. Take a deep breath. Its Nov. 18th. The atlantic ocean is in the mid 50's. Let it cool a bit for a few weeks. Lets talk December 1, which is still extremely early. I believe Dec 15-Mar 15 is meteorological winter.

Yes, Ive seen the 12Z. GEFS has suggested a colder than usual pattern for end of the month. However, the EPS is not really on board yet.

Let us know when the EPS and GEFS agree on this.....

Wind driven light snow here. Looks nice for Nov 12

850's and 925's are below zero now for NYC metro excluding eastern half of LI

Temp down to 40. The 925 line is basically right over the city. Will the precip in SE Penn make it up here??

This cant really explain much given how last winter were in the same place and the winter basically sucked between Nov 20 and March 1

Next week's event may be just like today's. COLD FRONT with some showers.

THere is a ton of moisture that seems to get left behind near the GOM next Tuesday. This might be a cold front like today, but if the moisture can consolidate and the timing is right a stronger low can form along the stalled front and depending on if it stalls onshore of off the coast would make major differences. Looking at model output 5 days out its utter stupidity. It just shows one of numerous potential outcomes each one likely not what will actually occur. Just use the models for minor trends and as a guidance of what the players on the field are until 72-84 hours out.THere is a ton of moisture that seems to get left behind near the GOM next Tuesday. This might be a cold front like today, but if the moisture can consolidate and the timing is right a stronger low can form along the stalled front and depending on if it stalls onshore of off the coast would make major differences. Looking at model output 5 days out its utter stupidity. It just shows one of numerous potential outcomes each one likely not what will actually occur. Just use the models for minor trends and as a guidance of what the players on the field are until 72-84 hours out.

Take a look at last night's 0Z EURO (during the storm). It had JFK getting 9 inches. It got 2.2. There was a warm layer above 850 that almost all the models did a bad job on.

same here and i am a few miles NW of you on hempstead/garden city border. 32.5 degrees DP at 30

Precip is all but over at that point. Maybe another tenth of an inch falls between 8z and 9z

NAM looked better at 850 level during the precip for NYC and western LI on this run. The surface was a degree warmer....

they look to get close to 0 at 850 once precip is over

RGEM is basically best case scenario for NYC/LI

Th This is mid Nassau County at height of precip on NAM. By 6Z it starts shutting off... .5-.7 of precip with sub 0 850 and 925 tmeps

Look at soundings...

We have a 990LP on the benchmark at night.

This map is completely deceiving for NYC/LI. Must be a ton of sleet.

Its too amped, but not too surprising at 60 hours on the NAM. The EURO being so far NW is concerning though, despite the GFS, UKIE, ICON and to an extent the CMC

I can also see places with better precip rates getting dynamic cooling of the column to support sleet/snow even on long island. The precip seems to be trending southeast on this one

Its extremely close. 850 and 925's are 0-1 degrees