Jump to content

NJwx85

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,806

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Thanks. Family and work occupy most of my time these days but it's still fun to come on here when something significant is on the table. The recent trends from the GFS has been promising. Don't see anyone around here getting into double digit snowfall but this could easily be the biggest event so far this season for many.
  2. NJwx85
    The fact that the 18z NAM has the low centered over DC at hr 84 is a good sign. It's normally way overamped at that range. I would be worried if it showed the low near Pittsburg but this has last minute shift Southeast written all over it. Quick thump over to a mix/rain along the immediate coast then dry slot. Further inland, longer thump and then eventual mixing/dry slot. This is an old fashioned North and West of 287 snowstorm, but still likely at least a solid 6 hour front end thump for the city.
  3. NJwx85
    It still shows very strong winds aloft in the early morning hours and not much of an inversion.
  4. NJwx85
    The rain is advancing gradually Westward from Suffolk. Based on the latest HRRR another 1-2" coming for most, especially from NE NJ into the LHV, CT and Long Island.
  5. NJwx85
    Starting to see partial sunlight in Ramsey.
  6. NJwx85
    The initial dry slot over the immediate coast is because the parent low is tucked right into the coast near NY harbor. The surface low that will be brining the wind is still located well Southeast of the benchmark.
  7. NJwx85
    Absolutely pouring here in Ramsey, NJ under the pivot.
  8. NJwx85
    The storm will be pinwheeling back towards the coast tonight. We will get the strongest winds tonight into tomorrow. The rain will pick back up too.
  9. NJwx85
    It's just a little too far Northeast. The heaviest axis will be over the Hudson Valley and SW CT. The advance North has stopped and the band is starting to pivot.
  10. NJwx85
    The HRRR doesn't have much of an inversion but the storm will occlude tonight as it rotates West and slowly weakens. It will still pack quite a punch but it will not be as intense the further West it gets.
  11. NJwx85
    West of the Hudson 20-30MPH with a few gusts over 40MPH. Hudson river to the Suffolk County line 30-40MPH with a few gusts over 50MPH. Highest potential is Suffolk, especially the North shore for sustained over 40MPH with gusts 60+.
  12. NJwx85
    Last night was pretty crazy in Southern Rockland. About 3 hours of heavy rain with embedded downpours and lots of thunder and lightning. Then it tapered off around 11pm for a couple of hours before coming back in around 1:30. Wind has started to pick up here and rain is squally. Storm definitely has that tropical feel but we'll have to see where that pivot occurs. Some models push the dry slot up into the Hudson Valley for a time while others keep most of the interior raining until late tonight. 30-40MPH winds with higher gusts will be sufficient to knock down trees given soil saturation. High chance of power outages for the North shore of LI, especially Suffolk. Low-Moderate chance elsewhere.
  13. NJwx85
    The Wanaque reservoir is still over 100% capacity. Any heavy rain will cause immediate rises on already high rivers. That reservoir feeds the Passaic River system.
  14. NJwx85
    1953 Worcester tornado was rated F4 under the old rating system.
  15. NJwx85
    Saw speculation last night of high end EF3 or low end EF4.
  16. NJwx85
    One of the main problems is that people don't listen to warnings but the biggest problem is that a majority of the public doesn't even understand what they mean or the difference between a watch and a warning. A large percentage doesn't understand the difference between straight line wind damage and a tornado either.
  17. NJwx85
    I still cannot get over the tornado in Gloucester County, NJ. Yes, we know that we can get tornadoes in NJ and NY but they are never this violent, this long tracked or as wide.
  18. NJwx85
  19. NJwx85
    OMG
  20. NJwx85
    Indeed, runoff usually lasts 24 hours after rain stops so rivers won’t crest until tomorrow night.
  21. NJwx85
    The Ramapo and Pequannock meet in Pompton Lakes which then flows into Wanaque reservoir. When the dam opens it sends water downstream into Pompton Lakes. The Ramapo then flows into the Pompton River which floods Pequannock, Pompton Plains, Wayne and Lincoln Park. The Pompton ends at the Passaic River at two bridges road. It takes quite awhile for the Passaic to get all of the water. Two bridges is less than a mile from Williwbrook mall. If the Passaic gets high enough it will actually backflow into the Pompton.
  22. NJwx85
  23. NJwx85
  24. NJwx85
    It should be over by 1AM for most of us but what’s left is intensifying as it moves NE.
  25. NJwx85
×
×
  • Create New...