sbnwx85

I am so back.

There’s some heavy hitters on the GEFS. Not sure I can stand to track this one as closely as Wednesday night’s storm.

Went from a solid 8 to maybe a 4. Horrendous.

About to go back to my 4"-7" call.

Amazing difference between the 12k NAM and 3k. 18z 12k NAM 18z 3k NAM (still snowing at end of run)

Confidence might not be quite high enough yet the "wintry mix/freezing rain/ice" would hit warning criteria.

Quad Cities, Grand Rapids and IWX just did too. EDIT: IWX is only for its far northwest counties.

real nice

Now it's the boss walking into my cubicle.

Oof… I shoulda looked at GEFS first. Congrats Chicago.

8.3” final call.

Getting dangerously close to that cutoff here in these parts but I still like where I sit. This should be a good hit for many.

While 00z GFS is south of the other models one positive is that it’s putting down more snow than its previous runs.

I was thinking 4”-7” for Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan. We seem to be in the jackpot zone right now.

We snuck in a quick snow shower and added 0.1” of snow last night.

Worst run yet. ICON also more in line with GFS. Canadian still looks solid. I’ll bet Euro holds and it’ll be another American vs. foreign showdown.

We’re still four days out. A lot can happen.

Everything on the table. 18z Euro 00z GFS 00z Canadian 00z ICON

Lock in the 18z Euro.

18z GFS a little weaker too.

18z ICON was still amped although slightly weaker. Still a 8”-18” wallop for many. My area would have icing/sleet issues. GFS running now.

We have a glaze of ice and about a quarter inch of sleet. It’s transitioned to all freezing rain/drizzle now.

We’re getting the kitchen sink up here.

Mesoscale Discussion 0075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Indiana into far southern Michigan and northern Ohio Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 081746Z - 082245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will gradually become more widespread across north/northeast Indiana and northern Ohio through the mid to late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a swath of stratiform precipitation (with embedded convective elements) becoming established across north-central IN as isentropic ascent increases within the warm conveyor belt of an intensifying mid-level low. This trend is expected to continue through the afternoon hours as warm/moist advection increases amid strengthening 925-700 mb winds. This mid-level warm advection will reinforce a weak warm-nose aloft, and should promote mainly liquid hydrometeors near the surface. Although surface temperatures are currently near freezing across northern IN/OH, dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s suggest that wet-bulb cooling to below freezing is likely after the initial onset of precipitation. This trend is already being observed at a few locations across northern IN with some ASOS/AWOS and mPING reports of freezing rain noted over the past 30-60 minutes. Surface temperatures from the 12 UTC HREF members appear to be running 1-3 F too cold compared to 17 UTC observations, which suggests that freezing rainfall estimates from these members/HREF probabilities may be too bullish. However, more recent deterministic solutions (HRRR/RAP) have captured surface temperature trends well and depict freezing rain rates of around 0.03 in/hour. These solutions also suggest that freezing rain potential may be greatest across northwest to north-central OH through late afternoon with accumulations up to 0.1 - 0.25 inch possible.