sbnwx85
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Everything posted by sbnwx85
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Hoping the weaker/SE trend of the winter kicks again once more.
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We have flurries.
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High risk, high reward with this one. That OP run on the GFS dumps on Wisconsin and gets the rain/snow line through here. That followed by single digits could create a glacial snowpack. The lake-effect potential behind this isn’t great but not bad for February. Usually the lake is too cold by now but single digit or low teens temps over a lake in the mid to upper 30’s is enough.
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It’s go time.
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Divided in half.
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I’d make sweet love to that 0z gfs run.
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As currently modeled... and I'm sure it'll change 19 times... looks like a long duration snow event for parts of the sub starting early Saturday and ending Sunday with lake effect snow.
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12k NAM still has it. 3k NAM instead has a 5”+ stretch from Chicagoland into Michigan.
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All models now picking up on a band of 6"+ from South Bend to the thumb of Michigan... except the sad Euro.
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Trash model. Shell of its former self. Sad!
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My rule is wait to rely on until 24 hours before a storm (a rule I sometimes forget to follow).
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I am so back.
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There’s some heavy hitters on the GEFS. Not sure I can stand to track this one as closely as Wednesday night’s storm.
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Went from a solid 8 to maybe a 4. Horrendous.
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About to go back to my 4"-7" call.
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Amazing difference between the 12k NAM and 3k. 18z 12k NAM 18z 3k NAM (still snowing at end of run)
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Confidence might not be quite high enough yet the "wintry mix/freezing rain/ice" would hit warning criteria.
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Quad Cities, Grand Rapids and IWX just did too. EDIT: IWX is only for its far northwest counties.
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real nice
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Now it's the boss walking into my cubicle.
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Oof… I shoulda looked at GEFS first. Congrats Chicago.
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8.3” final call.
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Getting dangerously close to that cutoff here in these parts but I still like where I sit. This should be a good hit for many.
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While 00z GFS is south of the other models one positive is that it’s putting down more snow than its previous runs.
