sbnwx85

I think the mets at IWX are anxious to leave for Thanksgiving... this might be the shortest AFD I've seen considering there's plenty to talk about. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lake effect snow showers with accumulations up to 1-2" possible for Berrien and Cass counties late Thursday through Friday. - Unseasonably cold through mid next week. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s with lows in the teens. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 Modified arctic airmass will spread south across the Great Lakes in wake of low amplitude disturbance ejecting through the OH valley tonight/Thu. A few snow showers possible northwest Thu morning before giving way to lake banding Thu night into Fri morning as low level lake thermal trough intensifies. However expected dry entrainment along wrn/srn flank of Lake Michigan will curtail development and doubt much more than an inch of snow possible north of the MI/IN stateline. Otherwise brief window does exist toward daybreak Thu for some snow to mix in south of US24 within departing rain shield. Relatively warm sfc temps and rainfall overnight here will preclude any snow accumulation. Remainder of the period will be quite cold and dry beneath dominant upper low taking shape near James Bay. Temp anomalies Fri-Tue will run 10-15 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1142 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 A shortwave and attendant sfc low over the Central Plains will track east through KY tonight. A blossoming precip shield along a leading elevated baroclinic zone is expected to barely clip KFWA this evening into the early overnight on the far northern fringe of this system. Ptype at KFWA looks to be primarily liquid, though a brief mix or changeover to wet snow cannot be completely ruled out by mid-late evening. Opted to drop KFWA into MVFR during this time, with better chances for IFR cigs/vis just south of the terminal into tonight. No impact at KSBN otherwise with light winds through the period. &&

Those outside of the lake belt can ignore this you’re if sad about no snow… lake effect set up looks good especially Friday and Sunday into Monday morning. WNW winds will favor Michigan more on Friday. Sunday could be a bigger day for northern Indiana with a more NW flow and even colder air blowing down the lake. Also noting, although outside the subforum, this should be a major lake effect event for upstate New York. Winter Storm Watches are already up there.

Autocorrect knows me too well

Certainly looks good from Black Friday thru the following Tuesday. That weekend clipper should beer winds more northwest to bring the bands deeper into Indiana. But like you said, you never know for sure with clippers.

I’m going guess the NAM still stinks 12z GFS at least shows some possible frontogenisis snow showers Wednesday but keeps the Thanksgiving low well south. It tries to bring a weakening clipper through the area Saturday… clippers can surprise though so it bears watching.

Eye candy. 12z Euro kuchera post-Thanksgiving Day system, post-lake-effect, and end of run.

GFS making a baby step in the right direction too. Still too far south for me but at least it’s showing snow again for some areas.

To your point... in my amateurish observations over the years you can basically double whatever the global models put out in terms of lake-effect. Both GFS and Euro are spitting out about a foot in SW Michigan between Black Friday and the following Tuesday. Could be some big boy totals when all is said and done!

Sick burn.

An outstanding lake effect set up wasted on freaking rain! Ugh!! This would be like a foot of snow today if it were ten degrees colder.

I’ll take the cold blast starting the weekend after Thanksgiving.

Love the optimism. You can tell it's early in the season.

Interesting spread across the city of South Bend. South side got about a dusting. North side with a good inch. Hearing reports of 2-3” just over the state line.

More of a white rain here. DAB on grassy and elevated surfaces.

We have flakes!

Milwaukee and Green Bay hoist WWA for the eastern parts of the CWA's. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 127 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON TO IMPACT THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN... WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072-210330- /O.CON.KMKX.WW.Y.0010.241121T1200Z-241121T1800Z/ Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Dodge-Washington-Ozaukee-Jefferson-Waukesha- Milwaukee-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Elkhorn, Racine, East Troy, Waupun, Whitewater, Hartford, Menomonee Falls, Sheboygan Falls, Brookfield, Muskego, Cedarburg, Waukesha, Delavan, Jefferson, Beaver Dam, West Bend, Oostburg, Kenosha, Mayville, Plymouth, Lake Geneva, Fort Atkinson, Milwaukee, Fond Du Lac, Howards Grove, Germantown, New Berlin, Watertown, Grafton, and Mequon 127 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches, with locally higher totals up to 5 inches possible along the Kettle Moraine. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Wisconsin. * WHEN...From 6 AM to noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ QUIGLEY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1209 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO IMPACT MORNING COMMUTE... WIZ038>040-048>050-210215- /O.CON.KGRB.WW.Y.0010.241121T0900Z-241121T1500Z/ Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Winnebago-Calumet-Manitowoc- Including the cities of Green Bay, Kewaunee, Appleton, Menasha, Luxemburg, New Holstein, Two Rivers, Brillion, Manitowoc, Oshkosh, Neenah, and Chilton 1209 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations between one and three inches with localized amounts of four inches possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Calumet, Manitowoc, Winnebago, Brown, Kewaunee, and Outagamie Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Roads may be slippery and slushy for the Thursday morning commute. Reductions in visibility expected within heavier snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

After seeing the 00z runs tonight I’m going for a bold 3.2” for the first call of the season.

Another day of grey permacloud. I’m watching the Bears/Packers game and jealous of thr sun they’re getting.

Whatever is falling from the sky is going to be coming down sideways for a while thanks to some strong winds.

The slight/moderate/high risk maps we’ve been waiting for.

Same amount here. Then the dog peed on the rain gauge to add a little more.

I'm still traumatized by the 2011-2012 winter. See my signature for more.

Resurrecting this for perhaps the final or penultimate time. Much of our subforum in at least a marginal risk today. And a few areas to the east seeing a marginal risk tomorrow. Day 1 Day 2: RAP and NAM showing potential for a possible spin up as the front moves through tomorrow late morning thru the afternoon particularly to my east. Nothing worth chasing IMO but something to keep an eye on locally

This is the third latest 80 degree day on record in South Bend. The latest 80+ day is November 1st, done twice, when it hit 82 on November 1, 1950 and 80 on November 1, 1933.

SBN hits 80 degrees to break the old daily record of 79 set in 1999.