sbnwx85

If it means another heat wave like March 2012 I’m all for it…minus the subsequent drought that summer.

Just a light glaze of ice here.

Sun just came out which is nice.

Would think IWX would issue one too for the far northwest counties. Get the word out now about the freezing rain threat. I’ve seen what happens when salt isn’t out down on roads before just a tenth of an inch of glaze adds up…it ain’t pretty.

HRRR keeps me all freezing rain now. Maybe a tenth of an inch of ice? I’ll be home before it starts thankfully.

It's snowing off and on but with temps at or just above freezing the roads are just wet.

Finally got a squall to hold together long enough to make it here. Good stuff.

I'm on the edge of either adding an inch or two of snow or losing an inch or two of snow before the arctic air moves in next week. Pretty neat.

When you think there's a trend southward:

Snow depth around 4.5"

Same.

Two days ago it looked like there could be a decent system in the Great Lakes in the middle of next week. Now both GFS and Euro have a big Canadian high traversing the area.

An inch of new snow overnight. Everything is caked with white.

Compaction and melting have us down to about 3.3 inches after getting up to 4. RAP and HRRR have between 2 and 6 inches of lake effect coming depending on where banding sets up.

NAM says...you're right.

Just a 50 mile shift south would be great on the GFS.

I have a feeling I'll be riding the edge of rain/snow here. Could end up with a slushy mess.

At 4" now. Last bit of good returns are pushing away. Expecting at least a couple more inches tomorrow but could be more if a dominant lake band sets up just right.

IWX is going all-in on the lake-effect tonight/tomorrow: EDIT: I assume "this evening" refers to Thursday evening in the advisory text. Also, a little surprised they didn't just upgrade to a warning based on an additional 5 to 8 in the forecast. I'll have to dig into the AFD. Elkhart-Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN- Western St. Joseph IN-Cass MI-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien- Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Michigan City, La Porte, Kingsbury, Fish Lake, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, North Liberty, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Paw Paw Lake, Niles, New Buffalo, Stevensville, and Berrien Springs 221 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 /121 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023/ ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow and then lake effect snow expected. An additional 5 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected into this evening totalling 6 to 12 inches for the entire event. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening and then morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...System snow is expected to continue into the afternoon before dissipating this evening. Lake effect snow is expected to take over 3 to 6 hours later and continue through much of Thursday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.

3.5”. South Bend looks as good as it can.

Up to 2” now. Good returns incoming on radar. Definitely a nice paste job. Edit: Should add that we’re losing some of this to melting. I can hear the water dripping down the waterspouts.

Just under an inch here and snowing at a good clip.

Riding with the Canadian.

IWX liking the lake impact a little more now. Calling for up to 3" on top of whatever the system leaves behind.

Definitely the most active pattern since November in these parts. Four inches tomorrow, 1" Thursday, 1" Friday and possibly 4" Saturday night/Sunday. It won't be 10" on the ground due to compaction but it'll at least look like a proper January. And the extended looks good too.