sbnwx85

Finally started seeing flurries when I went outside about 20 minutes ago.

The 7 inches of snow I picked up Saturday night is nearly all gone. There are a lot more green patches that white on the ground. Time to replenish.

I haven’t been out much today but haven’t seen anything fall from the sky or any accumulation. Might be a virga storm here. Awaiting the lake effect tomorrow.

Good luck and enjoy! Will be watching from the Lake Michigan snow belt in South Bend.

The sun is out here.

https://www.weather.gov/iwx/20020130_ice The ice storm of 2002 in Northern Indiana was unforgettable. It was January 30th. A couple inches of snow fell followed by over a half inch of ice accumulation. I’ll never forget how beautiful and icy everything looked. But it was dangerous to be outside because every 30 to 60 seconds you would hear a huge tree limb snap and crash to the ground. I will always remember watching one of the limbs narrowly miss a sports car parked across the street. Power was knocked out to 100,000 people. It was also very cold after the storm making it difficult to restore power. In fact, we didn’t get power back for 5 days. My mom, extended family and myself huddled into my grandma’s living room where she had a natural gas fire place. For a 15-year-old it was fun to spend time with family, playing games and eating fast food. My favorite thunderstorm would have to be June 23rd, 2010. https://www.weather.gov/iwx/20100623_lewp It was the crescendo to a very active week of severe weather. A derecho earlier in the week didn’t produce much damage in Elkhart, but this one did plenty. Watching the shelf cloud approaching and the feeling the gust front drop temps about 15 or 20 degrees in just a few seconds was wild. The winds were the fiercest I’ve ever experienced between 80 and 90 mph. You could hear the trees going down all around. 1/2/99 is probably third on my list but I have mixed emotions about that day. It was incredible seeing 20+ inches of snow on the ground but I ended up with the worst stomach virus I’ve ever had that day. There was also the funnel cloud that developed DIRECTLY OVERHEAD at my grandma’s house on July 20, 2003. There was never a Tornado Warning and it never touched down, but it was an incredible sight. The RFD did some damage taking down a few trees nearby. I’d be remised if I didn’t mention the historic flooding I covered as a radio reporter in Jacksonville, IL on June 18, 2011. 6 to 12 inches of rain fell the night before causing horrible flooding of the Town Brook. I remember watching a van float away and police rescue people in a mobile home park as the waters kept rising. The water treatment plant flooded causing the city to go under a boil order for two weeks.

Yeah, I thought the setup might be a little different. Honestly, no two lake effect events are exactly alike.

The lake-effect definitely over performed on this side of the lake on Saturday night. Most models indicted 2-4 inches of snow, except the HRRR which had 6+, and I ended up with 7 inches. Also, Benton Harbor (right along the lake) had 8 inches of snow on Saturday night.

Will post this information here since it’s really outside the dates of the event thread ongoing. IWX is all in on a relatively widespread lake effect event in Michiana. Potential for a foot or more in some places. LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 212 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 Elongating/sharpening upper trough through the wrn lakes of sig concern this period. 12Z guidance a bit stronger/deeper aloft and dig primary nrn stream wave through srn IL/IN late Wed. While lake based thermal trough not as strong as was seen Sat, favorable long axis fetch combined with good synoptic moisture plume will enhance otherwise strongly forced focused single band during the day/evening Wed over nw IN initially before backing into sw MI Wed night. Strong multi-model consensus here lends confidence of sig, heavy snow accums and no doubt impactful. However subtle differences on exact placement/duration differ substantially enough to hold for another model cycle before notching certain headlines. Nevertheless would expect a fairly sizable swath of >6 inches northwest of a Knox- Plymouth-Goshen-Sturgis line and potential for a foot or more in the typical snowbelt from nrn Laporte/St Joe north through Cass/Berrien by Thu aftn. Elsewhere numerous snow showers expected far west early Wed, spreading east and south through Wed night before activity shifts north into lower MI as upper trough swings through. Accums outside lakeband influence though will remain limited, generally 1-2 inches.

An over achiever on the first snow of the year. 7.3 inches north of South Bend.

Absolutely ripping. Lake effect machine is turned all the way up.

Let the winter magic begin!

Snowing in OKC. Current conditions at Oklahoma City, Will Rogers World Airport (KOKC) Lat: 35.39°NLon: 97.6°WElev: 1293ft. Light Snow Fog/Mist 31°F -1°C Humidity 92% Wind Speed N 12 mph Barometer 30.20 in (1023.5 mb) Dewpoint 29°F (-2°C) Visibility 5.00 mi Wind Chill 22°F (-6°C) Last update 11 Nov 7:52 pm CST

A minor lake effect event locally still looking good. Generally, 1 to 3 inches with a few 4 inch lollipops. Active pattern and the flow off the lake should keep things interesting through next week.

Daily record tied! RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 240 PM EDT THU NOV 10 2022 ...RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY TIED AT SOUTH BEND... AT 233 PM EST, THE TEMPERATURE AT SOUTH BEND CLIMBED TO 75 DEGREES AND TIED THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY THAT WAS SET JUST 2 YEARS AGO IN 2020. THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY WAS ONLY 55 AND AT THIS TIME HAS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW FOR THIS DATE THAT WAS SET IN 2020. THE RECORDS FOR SOUTH BEND GO BACK TO 1893.

The lake-effect response in Michiana behind the front Saturday night will be interesting to watch. Temps will be too warm to get much appreciable accumulation during the day Saturday, but if there's a single-band set up Saturday night someone could get a decent snowfall in these parts.

A bit of a lake-effect response in Michiana on Sunday.

Might be a long couple of days. At least temperatures are mild.

Just experienced what had to be a 60+ mph gust. Twigs and small branches hovering above the ground. Had to take cover in the garage for a half a minute. Exhilarating!

Power just went out at my mom’s house in Elkhart, IN. Safe to say there have been some 50+ mph gusts in the last couple hours.

IWX says upgrade to High Wind Warning something to monitor. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri Nov 4 2022 Main concern in long term will be frontal passage on Sat and associated rain/wind. Very dynamic system anticipated over the Great Lakes given coupled upper jets and increasingly negative tilt to mid/upper trough. Very deep PV anomaly is noted with surface cyclogenesis down to roughly 985mb by the time it reaches Lake Superior. Corresponding low level adjustments lead to 60-70kt LLJ over our CWA much of the day. True mixing depths and efficiency are always questionable in a WAA regime but most forecast soundings suggest mixing into at least 40 kt winds Sat morning. Greater concern will be immediately behind the front Sat afternoon with dry air advection and some potential to mix into 50 kts. Feel confident in at least advisory criteria gusts of 45 mph Sat. Some concern we could reach warning criteria of 60 mph along and immediately behind the front given very impressive wind profile just above ground level (50 kts at 925mb). However, warning criteria events are rare for our area and require near-perfect alignment of ingredients. One negative factor is that isentropic analysis indicates winds largely parallel to the isobars which may limit a more abrupt/efficient downward momentum surge behind the front. Soundings are also fairly stable and not expecting any thunder. Strongest gradient is also in prefrontal segment in WAA regime with a sharp drop in gradient strength behind the front later Sat. Given these factors decided to just go with a high-end advisory. Later shifts may upgrade to a warning if signals become stronger.

Christmas tree FTW

Pretty sure I’m seeing mosquitoes on my walk lol

I went back and looked...sure enough last November was cooler than average. The beginning of the month had a few nice, sunny days which is probably what I'm remembering. I also remember leaves still being on the trees in mid-November while snow was falling...probably leading me to believe the beginning of the month was warm.

So anyway, going off memory, it seems the last three Novembers have started off pretty warm during these three consecutive La Nina's. If this winter also follows suit the best hope for big snows IMBY would be a lake-effect event in December with synoptic snows in February.