sbnwx85

Two days ago the GFS was also showing a decent ice storm across I-80 in Indiana and Illinois. Good thing mets didn't sound the alarm about that because it's long gone now. They waited to see if there would be model consensus. Shocking concept!

I'd give it a B+ here. We've really only had two events (a week of lake-effect in November and the Christmas lake-effect blizzard) but they were both great events here. We're 15" above average for snowfall for this time of year. I'd give it an "A" but it's been painfully boring and cloudy between the big events. At least the sun is out today.

That Euro run gives me like 6 inches on the 10:1 map. I expect ratios to be a little worse than that. We could thread the needle to about 4" here.

Had a burst of decent snow this afternoon. DAB

Interesting to see such low totals in these parts compared to the previous map. I believe at one point the average snowfall in South Bend was near 70" per year. The data I can find now shows it is 62.5" per year. I wonder if that number will drop again with this latest release.

Breaking news: Snow melts quickly when it's 53 degrees.

Keeping the lake warm. More chances for lake effect later in the winter.

We ended up with around 6 inches of snow. Blizzard conditions subsided late Saturday morning. Got on the road for the Chicago suburbs for Christmas yesterday evening. It was slow going until about Lake County, IN then it was fine.

Still blizzarding. I'm not sure I'll make it home. Might have to stay in the hotel across the street from work.

I'll be in Mount Prospect for this one. Gotta bring my Chicagoland peeps some luck.

Guess I'll start posting in here since we're in the lake-effect portion of the storm locally. Snow has eased but should get a boost with the wave currently moving down the lake around Green Bay.

Winds picking up... At 12:12 PM EST, 2 WNW Goshen [Elkhart Co, IN] TRAINED SPOTTER reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M57 MPH

Blizzard Warning has verified here. The drive into work was horrible. Occasional white out conditions with visibility around 1/4 mile or less the entire way. Roads are a disaster. Would not recommend.

Up to an average snow depth of 4.7”. Absolutely miserable conditions. Snow falling and blowing. Occasional blizzard conditions. I’ll be going into work in an hour. Woo!

Good afd from IWX SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 455 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022 The upper level low`s main vort max lobe moves away from the area into this morning taking the main surface low pressure system into southern Canada. Additionally, trajectories become more westerly allowing for a transition into lake effect snow being the main snow event. With it being so cold, the DGZ is basically into the ground with lake enhanced omega residing above the DGZ. This factor of the cross-hair method being slightly off as well as the strong winds being able to rip apart the snow flakes should help provide a ceiling to our lake effect snow amounts. Additional snowfall amounts will be the greatest downstream of the lake reaching 8 to 12 additional inches of snow there from now through Saturday night. Thereafter, the lake effect snowfall looks to be the main snowfall event through at least much of Sunday. The snow paired with the strong winds will help to lower visibility and so will hold onto the blizzard warning for our lake effect area. One thing to watch for today will be that additional counties could be added on the eastern edge of the blizzard warning. Another hazard today will be the strong gusty winds. Wind gusts will likely be able to surpass 50 mph at their peak and that combined with the powdery natured snow will allow for blowing and drifting of snow as well as lowered visibility. This will impact the N-S roads the most with drifting snow, but travel across all roads will need to use caution where visibility does become lowered. Temperatures this morning have dropped below zero away from the lake influence. With the very strong winds expected to reach between 40 and 50 mph today, wind chills will be able to reach into the upper 20s and low 30s below zero. This is wind chill warning criteria.

I woke up about 20 minutes ago, looked at radar and thought “well, the lake effect event must be a bust”. Then looked at current conditions and assumed blowing snow must be causing the observation below. Turns out lake effect snow at -7 is the pixiest of dust but it is indeed coming down at a decent clip. Winds help reduce visibility at times. Not true blizzard yet but if winds pick up later…yikes. Ratios must be garbage because it doesn’t look like we’ve gotten much new snow. Drifts will make it impossible to tell how much snow we really get. Current conditions at South Bend International Airport (KSBN) Lat: 41.71°NLon: 86.32°WElev: 801ft. Heavy Snow and Breezy -7°F -22°C Humidity 79% Wind Speed SW 21 G 33 mph Barometer 29.72 in (1008.3 mb) Dewpoint -12°F (-24°C) Visibility 0.25 mi Wind Chill -32°F (-36°C) Last update 23 Dec 6:54 am EST

Couple inches in the ground. Wind is causing drifting but not horrible. I drove through a snow devil on my way home which was cool. Flake size increases dramatically under lake effect bands. If that can get going there will be some good totals and true blizzard conditions tomorrow.

Latest thoughts from IWX: .Update...(Tonight) Issued at 900 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 GOES vapor shows intense mid level sw digging through se MO attm with bombing sfc cyclone near KTOL. Swath of heaviest snow had shifted east into wrn OH in association with intense fgen burst along sharp arctic front. Meanwhile post frontal locations were plummeting with nearly all of IL below zero now. Sat/radar trends show lake streamers now into nw zones and enhancing ongoing snow. Of note is additional tilting of upper trough and expect additional enhancement of wrn extent of snow shield from srn IL nwd into nw IN this evening. Thus given more favorable thermal profile with time expect another 1-2" of snow for most outside lake belt likely overnight. This will occur coincidental with further deepening of sfc cyclone toward lake Huron and yield steadily increasing west/nwrly winds with gusts pushing 40kts by daybreak. Thus conditions will deteriorate further overnight. Travel is strongly discouraged as life threatening cold and near blizzard conditions develop. Otherwise prior forecast remains in tip top shape with no changes needed.

Measure 1.8" at work.

Pixie dust flying. Down to 21 degrees. Wind has picked up but not too bad yet.

Still 32 degrees and snowing moderately. Good banding trying to form. Closing in on an inch.

Light snow has commenced.

Indiana Department of Homeland Security is deploying military personnel to help drivers who get stuck on the Indiana Toll Road starting tonight.

Based on social media comments on my station's pages, people aren't quite grasping the seriousness of this. They're getting caught up on snow amounts, most saying it won't be that bad. I'm sure many are going to push it to make it home for Christmas. It's going to be a long weekend for first responders.