sbnwx85

The weather team at my station put together its annual "Forecasting the Winter" special yesterday. They used previous weak La Nina winters following a strong El Nino to predict what we could see this winter. They found what @michsnowfreakmentioned above: temps slightly above normal, with snowfall near to above normal. Some interesting notes: Weak La Nina winters following strong El Nino winters (at least in South Bend) almost all had higher-than-normal snow totals in December. January and February had below normal snowfall. But then March and April (yuck) made up for it with above-average snow totals. The wild card for this side of the lake is always lake-effect. Cold December winds and a warm lake should get things rocking. Here's a link if you're interesting in watching: https://wsbt.com/news/local/forecasting-winter-with-wsbt-chief-meteorologist-cari-peugeot-2024-2025-snow-sleet-blizzard-precipitation-how-much-la-nina-lake-effect-temperatures-michigan-south-bend-mishawaka-indiana

Got 0.50” of rain overnight and some solid boomers that woke me up.

Moving to Tampa to cash in on snow.

Storms missed me to the north by about 10 miles Saturday night, I got split by two cells Sunday afternoon, but I did cash in on about .10" of rain from lake enhancement last night. Almost lost an inflatable pumpkin due to some 40 mph gusts but managed to make the save before it rolled into the street. Sunny today and refreshingly crisp. We should get a few lake effect showers this afternoon.

We still have managed 30 mph gusts up here. It's just amazing how massive this storm is and how something so far to our south is still impacting weather here.

Very thankful these were weak tornadoes. The track for the St. Joseph County one was through a Meijer parking lot and across Main Street. If it were stronger and stayed on the ground a hospital was next followed by my workplace.

And of course the Sox won

Of course the day I take off work to go watch my White Sox set a record for futility I miss a funnel cloud go by.

Read it and weep:

Sign me up for this storm track in January.

Should be able to get to 25 straight days without any rain. Historic times we live in.

Honestly, if the weather is going to be boring and dry I'd rather have it during a month like September when it's normally boring.

Maybe some flurries. Just to get a taste. Save the rest for DJF.

Lake effect machine still works.

Very loud boomers around 4:30. Hearing some wind damage reports around town. Maybe round two later?

You stole my thunder lol I had something typed up and was about to hit submit. All good!

The South Bend Airport hit 93.9 today. The HRRR and GFS have South Bend getting at or above 100 degrees tomorrow. South Bend has only seen triple-digit hit on 63 days in recorded history. The last time was July 6th, 2012 when the mercury hit 102. (4,434 days ago!) I'm not totally convinced we'll hit the century mark tomorrow... but it'll be worth watching!

Hit 90 here today too. Also an interesting tidbit from longtime South Bend meteorologist Bob Werner: We’ve had only 0.85", less than 20% of normal rain since July 17th. That has produced a rainfall deficit of more than 4" during that time. That's the 4th driest time we've ever recorded for those 39 days, and the driest since 1920! No significant chance of rain for at least several more days....

It's been nice not mowing the lawn so frequently.

We had some great house-shaking thunder this morning. Heavy rain but little wind. The frequent and nearby CG’s really made it a good storm though.

Confirmed tornado from earlier this week in Elkhart. Lots of trees toppled onto homes. No injuries or fatalities. This is only about a mile from where I grew up. Amazing to see virtually no damage outside of the tornado path... and tons of tree damage within this neigborhood.

Even though the line was losing some of its punch we still managed 40-50 mph winds IMBY. Damage across the area was pretty typical for a summer time MCS. Although there is a pretty large swath in Elkhart, IN that probably got hit by a down burst and/or small tornado. Lots of tree damage.

Radar losing that look though.

Tornado Warning in South Bend. Has that feel.

CBS2 says likely tornado near OHare, one confirmed near Frankfort. Absolutely wild. Perhaps 10 tornadoes at the same time. Blanket warning was the right call.