The HRRR has been insistent on convection initiating around the eastern pan handle region of WV close to 4-5pm. That seems to be the window for things to kick off.
Watch us have a week of clouds with only a few winners in the rainfall department. This set up seems rather hit or miss. Would really like one day that's a regionwide soaker.
Poolesville mesonet site has recorded nearly 1" of rain in the past 24 hours, yet the 4" soil moisture values have barely moved. Plants must really be soaking things up.
So far the HRRR is too dry south of I-70. Very happy for the rain. Things are so dry that our soil moisture numbers haven't budged even in southern Maryland where nearly an inch of rain has fallen.