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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming out. A smaller Tornado Watch may be right on it's heels.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Given the tornado risk east of I-95, this is justified. I could see a tornado watch going up east of here.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Bro I just don't want to be 65 and party sunny on Christmas Day.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Do you think this is an I-95 and east event, or are the western suburbs in play?
  5. Eskimo Joe
    The old Euro mid range high QPF bias strikes again.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    It's not unreasonable to be pessimistic on snow chances in winter anymore, especially south of 40N. We've been in such a long term snow drought that it's almost safer to forecast Above Normal temps and Below Normal snowfall. You stand a good chance of being right most years outside of New England. Heck, I could see this being a shutout in the snowfall department south of DC this winter. Several folks on here appear to have already punted December and the first half of January!
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Issuing a winter outlook, even a preliminary one, in August is dicey.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    75°+ dews will do that!
  9. Eskimo Joe
    M1.8" Clear Spring mesonet site.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Same. Seems like we need Above Normal in Alaska for central and especially eastern CONUS to get Below Normal.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Infrastructure Week!
  12. Eskimo Joe
    .CHO storms go brrr
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Where are you located if you don't mind me asking?
  14. Eskimo Joe
    This line is booking east. Latest warnings from Sterling have movement at 50 mph.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Also a heavy precip disco for our far western posters:
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Definitely looking like a non zero tornado threat west of US 15 this evening. Mesoanalysis and mesonet data showing some nice backing of winds and surge in dews.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Per SPC mesoanalysis, there's a pretty solid are of instability cresting the Allegheny Front.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Use NAM MOS and HRRR together and you knew when the flip from SN -> IP -> RA would occur 90% of the time. That combination consistently schooled the GFS and Euro inside 30 hrs.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR puts a legit bow through Frederick/Loudoun/Montgomery/Carroll counties right at sunset.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    The Canadian tries to paint a 2" - 3.5" stripe of rainfall right along Mason-Dixon tomorrow afternoon. South of I-70 is less than an inch.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    That's a recipe for someone to get soaked.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR lights up NOVA with 3" - 5" of rain tomorrow
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Question for the mets/long range folks. When would we expect to see such a large/powerful El Nino begin to couple with the atmosphere? Wouldn't that yield more precipitation events in this neck of the wood by now since it's so robust?
  25. Eskimo Joe
    12z HRRR had a general 1" - 2" regionwide, with a narrow strip of 3" - 4" near Laurel.
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