Not surprising that PHL to NYC are going gangbusters on heat. You're on the northern periphery of a strengthening mid level ridge in early July. Max heat advection.
The Edgewood mesonet site, located in Harford County, just came in at 95/81, producing a heat index of 117°. The 117° reading is a new network wide record for the mesonet.
Nothing beats watching the Phillies on UPN 57 in the 90s when Mike Lieberthal would put his feet in buckets of cold water in between innings. The Vet was its own hell hole, but man we loved it.
NYC is the Central Park site, yes? The NYC subforum has been screeching for years about poor vegetation management on that location. For NCY to be 94° in essentially an over shaded, sheltered location at 11am bodes we for an upper 90s kind of day.
Yea the RRFS may be a formula for better future CAMs. I still like the HRRR because it shows what would happen if we overmix by some chance, almost like a goalpost kind of scenario.
Per the 12z IAD sounding, the convective temp is 95°. We are slightly warmer at 700mb compared to yesterday, and there's weak warm air advection noted as well between 600mb - 800mb. That should work to maintain a reasonably stout cap throughout the day.
12z IAD sounding shows warmer temps today at 700mb, now +12°. We're probably capped against any thunderstorm chances outside some rogue surface boundary like a sea breeze, etc.
The Baltimore City mesonet site, located on 12 acres of grass at the Montebello Water Treatment plant, already has a heat index of 91° and an air temperature in the mid 80s.