Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Yup. Nothing major. Best snowstorm for many in a decade and it's warning level for everyone with no precip issues.
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6" - 10" Mason-Dixon to I-66 to US 50. Up to a foot south of that. Nice.
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You're not a deb, you're raising several legitimate issues. As others have said, this event has ingredients incorporated that other storms have not had: favorable MJO phase, southern stream energy, strong boundary. Caution is certainly advised, but this is the best snow setup we've had in years.
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He's very cautious abut this event.
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Well said. One other item worth mentioning is that as we near an event, the "extreme" solutions tend to fade. If that happens, you see the few rogue 20"+ ensemble members come back to reality and that can tweak the ensemble mean downward. This translates to people thinking the event is "falling apart" when in fact it's just leaning towards a moderate/significant incident versus and major/historic.
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It's a de-amplified run. To see the ensemble mean push 6"- 10" regionwide as a "fail" is still a sign of a potentially healthy event.
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12z UKMET is a legitimate HECS regionwide, just wow. The GFS really seems to be on its own thus far. It's over 24" for @HighStakes, @wxmvpete, @psuhoffman and @mappy.
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Less interaction between the northern and southern stream. Also the southern stream get sheared out coming into the southwestern US.
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Top 10 snowfalls in this neck of the woods are generally 20"+ at the big airports. We've seen this tendency to de-amplify system between HR 84 - 144 this winter so caution is still advised. Until the key players get into the upper air network we need to temper expectations.
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Coastal low is there but doesn't strengthen quick enough to bring true blizzard conditions. Would be worried about a warm nose on Delmarva possible flipping things to sleet as we close.
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Euro has started to advertise some weak coastal trying to pop in the past couple of runs. Something to keep and eye on.
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ICON is a legitimate disaster for ice and sleet accumulations across the Carolinas and deep south. Wow.
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EZF to RIC to SBY is going to get their snow climo in a week. Wow. What a way to break a snow drought.
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06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true.
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NBM jumped significantly. Near record snowfall south of DC to RIC.
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With so many events, we tend to see the 06z guidance waffle or dry up. With the 06z Euro et al beefing up, it's a great sign. We're almost at the point where a "fail" would only be 4" - 8".
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E/E rule!
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Saw a couple questions about blizzard potential. We'd need a coastal to rapidly deepen as it pulls away. None of the guidance currently suggests that, so it looks like that is off the table with this event. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
With such a sustained, power ful press of arctic air coming down, I'm not sure how further north this climbs. In some sense, this reminds me of the December 2009 snow event for PA. There was the last second nudge north that brough warning level snowfall (6"+) to the southern tier, but the cutoff was sharp. In eastern PA, Allentown was almost smoking cirrus while it was piling up in Philly and Lancaster. -
That's a prime setup for us to win big time.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models. -
Oh wow that's classic for a KU event in these parts.
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What an awesome batch of overnight runs. To make things even better, I get to be on a panel at IMD today that moderate by Dr. Louis Uccellini.
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It's the PTSD talking. I get it.
