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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    This is why you always want to root for the northern stream to dive south of us. We get the warm air adcection precip, the transfer, and the upper level cold conveyor belt on the back side. It's the easiest and most reliable way to win.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Just give me a nice clean storm juiced up on gulf and Pacific moisture that has a clean hand off over Kentucky to a coastal low. 90% of the time it's a win.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    tl;dr Congrats New England
  4. Eskimo Joe
    It's a La Nina event and it's the Mid Atlantic so it's part of the game. I know some people, myself included, get snarky about HR 90+ events, but it seems to be a good rule that beyond the HR 84 - HR 90 timeframe, we should really avoid believing the model hype.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Denied
  6. Eskimo Joe
    We always want the capture and tilt to occur as far to our southwest as possible. Otherwise we're living on the edge, and that's not good.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like 1" - 2.5" with 15 - 25 mph winds is on the table. Boom potential is 2" - 4" rain, with 30+mph wind. Bust is less than 0.5" and a slight breeze.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Don't look now, but the GFS tries to spin up another coastal low during the 18th - 20th timeframe.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Incredible temperature swing in Baltimore County. 38 in Parkton, 46 in Towson, 57 in Baltimore City.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    The 18z GFS op is interesting for Southeast Pennsylvania and Northeast Maryland. At 00z Monday, there's a potent 500mb jet of at least 50kts extending from Cecil County down to Bermuda. Meanwhile at 850mb, there's a 50 - 75kt easterly jet from Cape Cod to Lancaster, PA. Someone is going to get drenched.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    It's a sign for winter!
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Where do I sign on the 18z GFS? Everyone wins.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    The entire winter was great. Everything was a jackpot.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    We now have enough mesonet stations online that terrain features are becoming visible. Tonight's low temperature map should be interesting to witness.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Bittinger dipped to 29 degrees last night. I wonder if we see more sub freezing temperatures tonight? There doesn't seem to be much wind, so we might decouple quick.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the Midwest short wave does not get over the CONUS upper air network until 12z tomorrow, 10/10. Wonder if we'll see things tighten up tomorrow morning?
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like we have the book ends for this event. GFS/hi-res scenario where it's a quick capture and more dynamic event down our way. Euro scenario where it's a late, disjointed phase and we get scraps.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Dr. No continues to say no.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Biggest run of the Euro this season coming up.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Seems like the 12z suite is hinting at the Midwest short wave coming in faster, and further southwest. This appears to enable a more complete capture of the coastal feature. Something to watch perhaps? I know @WxUSAF and I were discussing this at Lisbon the other day.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    I would honestly feel better if this midwest shortwave was dropping further west. We're really living on the edge here for the capture.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Yes it was a cool morning for sure!
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Yay?
  24. Eskimo Joe
    IMO, if we can make it inside HR90 and this thing has de-amplified, then this is legit. That's my go/no go threshold.
  25. Eskimo Joe

    Winter 2025-26

    Eskimo Joe replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Neutrals are a complete dice roll. 2013-2015 were rather neutral, but things broke our way more times than not.
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