Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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A bit of mixing at the Westminster mesonet site and the RH already tanking into the mid 30s. Might be a sneaky wildfire risk closer to the metros.
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I don't blame any TV or social media met for going average/above average in temps for winter. Since 2016, we've been stuck in a long term cycle of above normal temps during winter. Last year was the first real exception.
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Watch DCA not freeze until like December 30th or something
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Most likely reporting hail as snow. It's a dumb rule, but it's frozen so it count, IIRC.
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Once again, @WxUSAF is absolutely correct to be concerned about "wasting patterns", but it's somewhat comforting to see things slowly trending cooler as we near our first shot of late autumn weather. Not only more expansive cold, but better negative anamolies. EDIT: Euro also showing this too!
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Record negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD). Yay for us?
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Sorry for your loss.
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Liberty Reservoir was steaming this morning as I drove over it.
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BWI: 12.0 DCA: 9.0 IAD: 12.0 RIC: 5.0 SBY: 7.0 EDIT: I revised everything downward. We've been in a 10 year unfavorable PDO and it's La Nina.
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Perfectly fine with that. Will be interesting to see a few things: 1.) How much punch these zonal flow setups have this month. Do we stay relatively close to normal, or are we torching into the upper 70s? 2.) When the pattern does flip back, is it delayed? Another can kick winter? Will there be a decent storm, etc.?
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While I understand that we do not want to have the perfect pattern in November, I'm glad that we do not appear to be staring down the barrel of a wall-to-wall Pacific Puke™ fest. If I recall correctly, @Rainshadow had posted some stats in the past about the implications of mild to torch Novembers vs. average to below average November temperatures. Equally encouraging is to see the CFS and CANSIPS trying for at least climo temps for winter.
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Wow. Is there any plan to fix this?
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How about the week of 12/12?
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Man if we hit climo snow regionwide with a -1 to -2 temp departure, I think that'd be solid.
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I got nothing. Let's go!
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It's time to start fretting over pumpkin pie, Black Friday and first flakes. Let's go!
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Wasn't Ji going on about the winter being dead on Christmas Day during the warm up?
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Several mesonet sites on the central and lower eastern shore have popped above 70 degrees. Meanwhile Bittinger is 49.
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Agreed. Thought I wouldn't kick a 1" - 3" car topper on December 5th out of bed.
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2016-2018 were back to back years of terrible IMBY. But 2017-2018 was the worst of the two. As @psuhoffman said, 2017-2018 had bad dice rolls on game day. So I'd take that pattern again and chance it.
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HRRR is preferred
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2017 was terrible for me, but the other analogs listed here weren't the worst.
