Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
RE: Ellicott City From the LWX hydro guru: -
2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Sustained convection east of I-81 will probably be sparse through 4pm. Despite the ConvT being reached the shear is minimal so it's going to be hard to sustain the updrafts. -
2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
12z balloon from IAD has a Convective Temp of 87° -
2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Given strong insoltation and decent LL but weak ML lapse rates, there definitely is a wet microburst potential today. -
Thanks. We tried the launch spot at Prettyboy this weekend and it was absolutely dead. I've head good things about the Beckleysville Rd bridge so we're going to check it out Saturday.
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Anybody fish Prettyboy Reservoir that know if any halfway decent shore fishing spots?
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Maine has stolen all our heat. Another day in the L 90s there...I need to get up there again.
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Naw...half assed cut off low city.
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LR GFS and Euro are terrible if you like summer.
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Had a hot minute of rain last night and some drizzle around sunrise. Looks like some sun later today?
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@wxdude64 is living prrof about what @usedtobe always says about cutoff lows and QPF maxima: they are always too far NE in the numerical guidance.
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LWX radar showing a decent uptick in returns between I-64 and I-66. Lower S. MD and NOVA should be good for rain. Noth of there...naso much.
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This time last week, the GFS was pushing almost 10" of rain on Baltimore and now it's looking like Charm City will be lucky to see 1/10th of that. If this were winter, this board would be melting down.
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Yea it's been pretty amazing how cool it's been. I don't think anyone outside of a poorly placed bank thermometer have hit 95° or higher so far.
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My lawn would welcome that.
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Early 60s with no health issues.
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It never ceases to amaze me how unreliable the GFS is beyond D4. EDIT: spelling
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Welcome to the Old Line State. Last week there was a significant peaceful protest in front of the Bethesda library in the parking lot. People actually made a point to stand 6 feet apart and weak a mask and openly complained the police weren't following Gov. Hogan's orders. It was bizarre.
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2019 Mid Atlantic Lawn, Garden, Pool, etc. Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to Eskimo Joe's topic in Mid Atlantic
Soil temps finally cracked 74 degrees! Time for pumpkins. -
If this post is inappropriate for this thread please remove. This morning I found out that my best friend from college (he was the best man in my wedding, I in his), his wife and his mother all tested positive for COVID. His mother is now in hospice and went from healthy to on death's doorsteps in 3 days. This is a nefarious disease and the sooner we get a treatment protocol the better.
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GEFS and ENS don't get 500 heights above 585 through the 25th of June and dead tropics. This is quickly shaping up to be the year without a summer.
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Woah the GFS caved to the Euro?
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Per weather.us, the Euro has <1.5" rain north of I-66 for all of next week. 99% chance GFS is smoking crack.
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I haven't seen Euro guidance for rainfall. So far this spring and early summer it appears that numerical guidance has vastly over estimated rainfall in the medium term. We've had several instances where up to 3 or even 4 inches of rain was forecast and the area wound up with less than an inch. Until we're inside 24 hours, I'm largely ignoring the guidance.
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Correct.
