Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Almost never so I'm not expecting it.
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Yea the GFS saves I-95 and points west. I really hope this is the start of a last minute trend for the better.
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Yes absolutely. We need the coastal to form and cut off the SE winds at 850 as soon as possible. The earlier we do that, the more people win. Another 50 mile pump east would help too.
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Yea...the NAM only leads up to disaster. I'm REALLY hoping the NAM is wrong but man it's hard to ignore. @PhineasC talked about how we can sometimes get a rouge SE bump by like 25 - 50 miles and brother do we need it now more than ever.
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I have tropical tidbits up and the 0 degree isotherm at 850 straddles I-95 and I-95 never gets above -4 at 700mb which would imply rimmed snow or ice pellets. It isn't shoved west like 00z or 06z. This is definitely an improvement. I REALLY hope the NAM is wrong, but it's scored some big coups on thermals in the past.
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Those storms are the best. It looks like 40 and rain at D3 then BAM you're sitting at 5" - 9" and NWS is playing big time catchup.
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This is going to out-bust March 2013. Amazing how the NAM outscored the Euro...only in 2020 could this happen.
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I'm trying to remain optimistic, but the writing appears to be on the wall here for just about everyone.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Weatherbell or TT would be preferred then cut everything in half and use that as the high number in your range.
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Pivotal snow maps have a known bias to not be the best. Almost any other site is better.
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You literally maximize the lift in the DGZ. You'd even super saturate with that.
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18z EPS is pretty terrible. There's really no way to put it nicely. Event the Mason-Dixon crew flips and back to I-81. We gotta hope it's wrong.
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To my eyes, the NAM looks east by a decent chunk (50 miles?).
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Updates watch text from CTP: -
LWX expanding the watch into the counties bordering DC. EDIT: @H2O gets a watch
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Where do I sign?
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Bingo. If that coastal pops earlier than forecast we all win.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
NAM seems to be incredibly aggressive with shoving plain rain up into even THV/LNS. Probably going to be some mixing issues along Mason/Dixon but I can't see how that verifies. It's the warmest of all solutions by a long shot. -
On the 12z Euro, as the low pulls away it flips even the US 50 corridor down to about St. Mary's City back to a period of accumulating snow.
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Yea you're looking [conservatively] at 7" - 10" on the Euro.
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Temp at 32.9. Got a slushy coating on the car, deck, pool, and grass. Two days ago it was 60 degrees. I'm cool with this.
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I'm actually okay with the Euro.
