Eskimo Joe

We need to get sent down to AAA to work on our hitting.

Yes. Tomorrow looks like a better opportunity regionwide.

Yea no doubt there's going to be a nice pulser or two, DCAPE is puching 900j/kg. I would put money on locations west of US 15 maximizing potential today.

95% chance of a watch in PA. SWODY1 Slight expanded further back to Pittsburgh and the rest of western MD.

I'm thinking a Yoda kind of day? My lawn will like some rain though.

18z NAMNEST is really the only run/model that has anything other than a run-of-the-mill event. If you're looking for garden variety stuff with some pulse severe the majority of the guidance is on your side. I've learned over the years to disregard the NAMNEST when it's out on its own.

40% meso: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md0798.html

0.5°BR/BV appears to show a SW to NE oriented boundary running from Loudoun to Montgomery to Howard counties...it's slowly pushing back north and might act as the focus for some convection this afternoon.

For those of you who are interested in Derecho's and high-end MCS, I've done some loose analysis of events from 1998 on and found that 3/4 MCS or derechoes that really affect the heart of the LWX/AKQ CWA all pass along or south of Pittsburgh. Anything north of there either just scrapes the northern Baltimore suburbs.

Looks like a low end Derecho may have swept through PA and NJ...several 70 - mid 80 mph reports...substantial damage the utility infrastructure.

GOES 16 and the past few frames of CTP/LWX radar shows some convection firing as far southwest as Gettysburg.

You called it days ago...something looks slightly promising days out then goes 'poof'.

Watch the CAPE boundary tomorrow. Storms like to roll along that. Setup right now is north of the Potomac.

IMO, Friday looks like the better setup for us. Wednesday is probably a dying complex that gets the highlands.

That's the thing. If the GFS and Euro get pumped, then you know it's good.

History shows that in these parts if the GFS and Euro aren't on board, at least to a certain extent, then it's just the NAM being the NAM.

On the plus side, it's good to see the complex / line being favored to go on the northern end of the subforum. Historically, these things dive further south at the last minute. Re-analysis of the 2008, 2012, and 2013 events shows the meso guidance was too far north at HR 48+

Not really enthused with Wednesday. If you go back and look at all the the mid to higher range MCS / derecho events in the LWX CWA, they contained historically hot antecedent airmasses. That won't be the case this week. Unless there is a substantial cold pool or EML I would temper my expectations for this week.

Horrendous storm in Reisterstown. Going on near like 4 raindrops!

This is a must read paper about the role of EMLs and severe weather from DC north. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1

The 850 temps sampled on the 18z special RAOB ahead of the line occurred only 5 times before in recorded history at the IAD site. You could tell early in the day on the 12z ILN site that something big was about to happen because the EML was evident so early in the morning. That airmass advected ahead of the complex and sustained it over the mountain. Reanalysis of the event showed that every meso model that correctly modeled the EML successfully predicted the derecho making it to the coastline. If there's on big takeaway from that event, it was that correctly sampling, identifying and modeling EMLs in the Mid Atlantic will significantly increase the ability of forecasters to anticipate these events and provide timely IDSS to the appropriate officials.

I agree. June 2012 was an anomalous event. We had extreme temps and a stout EML.

8/15 referenced events have a DC hotspots and we are overdue for a derecho in these parts from a climo perspective.

Storms saw that watch box get extended into Baltimore and nope'd right up into PA.

Baltimore Metro left out. Kinda weird orientation of the WCN.