Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Fun fact with this event...the Ohio primary ended up stronger than progged, BUT the transfer to the coastal was pretty quick. A rare instance where up north into the PA mason/dixon counties boomed and DC didn't switch to rain. This was a rare wind for eveyone.
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THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION OVER THE POSSIBLE STATE OF WATER FALLING FROM THE SKY NEXT WEEK.
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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hey all, there's cause to rejoice. About 35 - 40% of the 12 EPS give THV/LNS/MDT 6"+ snow in the next 10 calendar days. About 50% give HZL and MPO 6"+ during the same time. There's been a marked shift to colder, wetter solutions. Hopefully they hold, because it appears we are entering a period of colder storms and some folks here stand the chance of a white Christmas. -
For 120+ HR out, that's a strong signal.
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Found a website that hosts all the old Local on the 8s music from TWC's golden days. You can listen to all their Christmas music here: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas
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Yup. Last year the pattern change was always modeled to be D15 and it got stuck there.
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Blocking isn't set in place. Per the indices posted on Pg 34, we're still lining everything up. The window from 12/20 to 1/1/21 is where you'd possibly see something crawl and slow down. Typically you need to see a big ridge over Idaho as the wave crests the GOMEX for it to really torque and slow down, a la 2016.
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12z OP Euro is a step in the right direction. I-81 corridor would be staring down their first warning criteria event of the year. NW 'burbs probably a solid advisory event, then it looks to get cooler behind the system.
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Notice the trend towards a -NAO and -AO around the 15th, then another bump down around the 19th. That's probably next week's storm shuffling everything towards a better pattern for snow. Wes had a graphic that showed when the NAO and AO are tanking we typically get some slop storm and then about 10 days later we get a cleaner pass. Looks like it may be happening.
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I'm not upset at the looks so far. This time last year it was total lights out.
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The 12z GFS ENS are definitely a step in the right direction. The 1000mb thickness are a touch colder and there is less clustering for the great lakes low. As other have said, we're only a couple of degrees away from a solid early season thump.
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I'm cool with getting all our snow climo between December 20 and Jan 4th. We can torch after that if it's guaranteed White Christmas with even some snow on snow. This is the way.
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Eric Webb is a pretty big warminsta:
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Hmmm, I don't think that's a reporting option in mPING. Might want to contact the devs.
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Snowing again in NE Carroll County. You're going to jackpot Round #2.
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Noice. mPING that stuff.
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I've got snow grains in Reisterstown.
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Snow accumulating in Lineboro and at the cam site.
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Decent vis drop on the Rt. 30 cam. Actual fluff falling from the skies coming for Bentley Springs.
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@mappy the MD DOT Cam on Rt. 30 @ the PA line is snowing. You're gonna get snow! https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=a5ffabd8008200d30050fa36c4235c0a
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12z RAOB from IAD is bone dry up to 700mb...probably hurting things https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/20120912_OBS/
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Thurmont, MD ATTM:
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Finally got AWIPS to work on my home PC, thanks to SteveCop and JWSmith. Really nice stuff. https://github.com/jaredwsmith/nws-unidata-awips-compat You need a subscription from Allisonhouse to get the data, it's $19/month. https://www.allisonhouse.com/awips/configure
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