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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Warned for baseball sized hail too, right? Probably riding the warm front itself.
  2. Per OUN, the cap has all but eroded and initiation is expected shortly.
  3. Looks like a cell is going up southeast of Lubbock. It's all by itself so if the updraft can sustain then it's off to the races.
  4. Impressive probabilities....similar to 4/27/11.
  5. Red box coming out now until 8:00 pm Central. SPC is slow so it might take some time to post here.
  6. Yea the warm front has legs. Not some weak animal hung up on the Red River.
  7. Per OK mesonet, it appears the warm front is now north of I-40.
  8. Probably going to see more tornado warnings than SVRs today, especially in the High Risk area.
  9. New Flood Watch from OUN really ups the wording:
  10. I'll never have enough money to storm chase, but I'd run out there in a heartbeat on a day like today. @Ian (Twitter: @ islivingston), @Ellinwood (Twitter: @ ellinwoosh) and @wxmeddler (Twitter: @ wxmeddler) are all chasing out there today.
  11. Yea looking incredible now. Incredibly jealous I'm not out there.
  12. Looks like the first PDS red box is being drawn up ATTM.
  13. Friendly reminder that all red boxes in a High Risk are automatically PDS.
  14. $20 says the 1630z update has a hatched 45% tor.
  15. $20 says the 1630z update has a hatched 45% tor.
  16. This is the danger of going high risk before the midday update on day 1. Really worried this busts now because everyone is expecting a big day and you'll look like a fool if this doesnt pan out. Ironically this flooding threat in Oklahoma is just as big but it's getting almost no coverage.
  17. Focusing on individual placement of cells on meso models will drive you crazy.
  18. Big mts. out there aiding updrafts. Looks like a US15 and points west kind of day. Metro areas probably stay dry.
  19. Could be a sneaky severe day today. Good CAPE and some shear.
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