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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
  2. Eskimo Joe
  3. Eskimo Joe
    I'd side with the 3k nam. HRRR is.....a thing.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Yup...winds picking up here ahead of it in Baltimore. Feels great outside.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Several reports 70+. Impressive.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0355.html
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Just not enough instability to get the rotations to stick. It's <800j/kg regionwide. Probably the only thing preventing a boom scenario.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Storm along frederick/moco boundary and in Loudoun County trying to go spinny?
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Meso for heavy rain potential: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=126&yr=2019
  10. Eskimo Joe
    For the 2nd batch tonight, you need to look towards SW VA or S-Central WV. If that line goes boom and you start seeing a ton of reports coming out of it then we're set for an interesting night.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    That's my cell to watch. If there's one that could overperform...it's that or the chesterfield storm.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Everything in this initial batch is game for a spinny. Line to our west looks really linear, more QLCS / straight line wind threat. just stepped outside my house and it's got that nice humid feel.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Looks legit to me.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    TOR for Frederick and Carroll now.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    SVR for Frederick / Carroll MD for possible TOR / wind.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    they're issuing for a 2nd possible tornado
  17. Eskimo Joe
    TOR for Nelson VA coming out.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Man if only we had like 3 good hours of sun today.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Red Box until 07:00z monday: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0067.html
  20. Eskimo Joe
    I guess there's your 3 discrete cells with the first round. One near CHO, one to the east near Scottsville, the third further east just west of Chesterfield.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    We're a bit more unstable than I thought. Still not the greatest setup, but the risk for a quick QLCS spin-up is there per SPC meso:
  22. Eskimo Joe
    FYI, if you GR radar program isn't showing warnings correctly, it's because v2.8 was released on March 20th. You'll have to re-download the program from the website www (dot) grlevelx (dot) com.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    From a SVR / TOR "climo" from LWX we're actually running pretty quiet so far this year. According to the IEMDataPlot, only 8 SVR and 0 TOR issued by LWX and by now you'd typically see a dozen SVRs and a half dozen TORs issued.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Forecasting severe weather for the Mid Atlantic, Carolinas and Northeast is far more difficult than other parts of the county. You have terrain, cold air damming, marine influences and dense urban populations all within miles of each other. There is no doubt the skill set that resides in Norman, OK is tremendous but SPC seems to bust too many times in this neck of the woods. I've always been a bearish, conservative forecaster and it seems to work out to under forecast severe weather in these parts.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    This has not been a well forecasted event from the start.
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