Daniel Boone

Seasonal Models are heavily weighted ENSO. PDO State also weighted pretty high. NATL SST'S somewhat along with IO. As far as the AO predictive State , maybe it's derived from past similar Driver parameter setups. I. e., The current Global indices compared with similar past years and their Winter AO State outcome. Rising QBO probably factored in.

Wonder where snowman19 is .? Hmmm, wonder what he's thinking of that big EPO Ridge that just shouldn't be so far east according to his belief regarding the NPAC SST Profile. Lol.

Just a few lt flurries here last night. 32.5 currently. KMRX busted too high on Temps, not surprisingly.

Yeah, gonna be interesting to see if GFS brings it back in subsequent runs. Right now the Plains ms Valley and Ohio Valley are favored, as is being what's coming to fruition. MJO probably having some affect. Imagine if there were upstream blocking. Those southern plains snows would move east instead of NE.

Exactly ! Lol

February 2015 comes to mind with the poleward EPO Ridge and a + NAO.

KMRX not saying anything about flurries tonight. Pretty obvious imo there'd be some around. Just can't figure them out.

Agree. Areas at low elevation at low latitude that once again see early measurable snow are the Southern Plains and lower Ms Valley. Pretty much same as last couple years. Oklahoma City is getting their 1st tonight.

The strong easterly winds had really put the kabash on Totals in the great Valley. Imagine if those mountains weren't there .?.. probably would have Totals of 1-2 inches within the Valley already. Side note; Nicole circulation a bit further west than progged track. Sitting over SWNC/SETN Border at Noon.

They can do good during Nina's, especially central and western Kentucky. Reference last couple years.

Wouldn't be surprised. It may take up till the day of before forecasts have it if Model's still showing it .

Exactly. The other area's in the PAC are not " out of hand" so to speak. The GOA has cooled but, you still have a large warmer area just south of there and the small cooler area off the west coast , is just that, small. The Nina area is expansive. Hopefully we get some huge volcanic eruptions in the GOA . Wouldn't snowman19 just love that.

Thel day before October 18 they forecasted snowshowers in the highest elevations and it wound up snowing all the way to the lowest elevations that day. Granted, that was October and Climatology was so warm yet, that Mets and many of the gen. Population thought pretty much, no way it will in lower areas Mets generally adjust to Climatology. Ie, if Data is showing snow and 34 degrees Sunday night for Asheville, they'll say rain and 39 or so. If data continues to show snow and 34 they usually come down a degree or two each day closer to time of. Many will still jack up a couple degrees even the day of as they just look at the average Temperature so much. I disagree with adjusting to Climo as much as most do. I've saw it cause busted forecasts many times.

Yeah, good points you brought up Chuck... Interesting.

Too bad QBO is rising or would possibly be a great match.

Very dry still west side of Apps. Hopefully the western most track solutions will verify for our sake's. Severe drought in portions of the TN Valley.

Yeah, euro starting to come around. Hmm..

Hopefully, the euro is showing it's bias of holding energy back.

Yeah, I agree. Too many Driver's going against the MA . The hope imo lies in the NAO( no brainer there) and above average PV disruptions. However, the rising QBO really hurts the possibility of any dominant, sustainable -NAO imo. Flukes and Miracles do happen.

Agree. In the same respect, if you take out 1949-50 alone the outcome is somewhat different as it was so strongly above average.

Saw it on Twitter. Interesting.

Sure looks that way. Best we can hope for is it stays rather low amp in the warm phases but, that's not too likely. Hopefully another Driver can knock things off kilter. There are a couple things that have a chance but odds are stacked against them being dominant for any sustainability. The rising QBO is a big concern imo .

Great post !

If were to happen, reminiscent 1950's Nina's !

Excellent points Carver's . Glad you posted those. Odds do favor milder than avg. for particularly the eastern forum obviously as the Pac is a big Driver. Solar definitely not good either. As mentioned many times, and we all basically know, what we need to alter the canonical Nina Pattern is a formidable -NAO. Saw a post on MA Forum about 2 Winter's with similar aspects as this Nov. irt pattern and indexes. Analogues; 1978-79 and 85-86. Both were good Winter's snow wise here . Both featured dominant blocking. 78-79 was a record cold one for the Nation as a whole. Every continental US State was below average except for Maine and Florida ! 85-86 featured slightly below avg Temps here with above average Snowfall. Area's SE of us were above average Temperature. Incidentally, it was a third Year Nina as well. Great Analogue.