The Iceman

Pretty sure we had one event of 1-3” in mid January that was melted by the next day and that was that lol

Will this winter be as bad as 19-20? No snow chances in sight.

That’s absolutely false. We had the wettest July on record and none of that precipitation was from tropical storms, it was all from the pattern in place. You your narrative of the epic may drought went completely off the rails even without the tropical storms. Btw if it’s not going to snow, the ground isn’t going to epically freeze for the water to run off. This isn’t New England. You’re not going to get 1-2 ft of hard frozen ground with lows in the upper 20s every night and highs well above freezing. And if seasonal snowfall was such a vital part of groundwater replenishment in these parts, why wasn’t there an epic drought back in 19-20 when most areas had single digit snowfall for the year? I predict your call of epic drought conditions will go the same way as the call back in May. You cannot start calling for a potential mega drought after 30 days of slightly below normal precipitation. It’s ludicrous especially coming on the heels of one of the wettest years on record and several precipitation events on the near horizon. It doesn’t look dry the next 15 days, snow or not.

You said this last may and we had like the wettest summer on record

Yup, was hoping we’d at least score a minor event but not looking likely. I think below average winter is looking very likely. As long as the pna stays negative, even a -nao/-ao isn’t going to save us, just make it so that any system that stays south will be weak and sheared out. Unless the pac side changes radically, this winter is looking like a dud. Don’t think it will be all that warm though, just more of the same of what we’ve seen. Cold and dry followed by warm up, rain, and repeat. Hopefully we see a few front end thumps… root for a weak nino next year…

20-21st seems more like a N and W event imo. Looks like a classic rain along 95 with snow in upper bucks/lehigh. No high to keep the cold air in place along the coastal plain. But if the long range looks verify, late dec/early jan should be VERY fun. I know this is an OP look, but this is a great pattern even though we may be risking suppression. Obviously would like to see the ridge in the west pop a bit more but that is a strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO look. Has some ensemble support too but the ensembles still hold on to the -PNA which throws a wrench in things but would still be more white than wet.

Because I’d rather live in hell than a place like Altoona.

I think the most impressive thing about the record highs yesterday was that there wasn’t an ounce of sunshine at least in my area. It was cloudy all day. If we had gotten the sun out, places probably would of hit 80.

12z GEFS looks better for 12/19 - 12/20 at H5 than the OP imo. Better heights in Greenland plus the trough out west isn't dug as far south. IMO that may be enough to flatten the SE ridge enough to give most of us a thump on that storm. Still 9 days out, but not a bad signal at this range. Will have to see how it evolves this week but it's at least our first real chance at accumulating snow this year even if the most likely scenario is snow to rain.

12/19-20 may be something to watch for a thump to light rain event. Temps are marginal but with a strong high in quebec, the set up could easily yield a solid thump especially for NW areas but even 95 could see some accumulation with some slight adjustments mainly to the SE ridge. If the front on next thurs/fri can beat it down a bit more than progged, it may be the first real threat of the year. Still in the day 8-9 range so a lot can change obviously but something to keep an eye on.

What are the cheapest flights you've found? I would love to do this for my bday but everything I'm seeing is $500+ round trip and I don't think that's in the cards just before Christmas.

Looks like this warm up will only last through next week. GEFS and EPS both have building heights in the Greenland area around D10 along with a -EPO. While there may be a lag in our sensible weather due to the SE ridge needing to be beaten down, you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. End of the 06z GEFS looks pretty decent. Way better than the shutout look of next week. I was skeptical this pattern would break down this quickly but guidance is showing that to be the case. Hopefully it stays consistent but overall we should be tracking some threats possibly as early as the 20th.

Maybe a slight risk of tor's in this area tomorrow too depending when the front comes through. Right now looks like timing is poor for that but something to watch with the dynamics in place

Anyone else’s township brine their roadways for tomorrows “event”? I lol’d pretty hard seeing that. Must be itching to use their winter budget or get overtime for the holidays.

Honestly I'd rather it be in the 60s/70s so I could at least continue golfing so that my game doesn't go to shit again by spring

Not Christmas, but still lol seems like the pattern change to -EPO is being pushed back which is not really that unexpected. I don't think things improve until January but we'll see. We really need a -AO to deliver cold air from the -epo and it doesn't look like modeling is quite there yet. Seems like -EPO/+AO/+NAO which would likely just be more of the same but not as torchy. Not a great pattern for snow. Sucks that we're probably going to punt the first half to 2/3rd's of the month with not even a shot of measurable snow in the LR. Hell even flurries seem like stretch tomorrow now.

Same I’ll be happy with mood flakes but I won’t be surprised if we don’t even get that. Just such a dry system, I could totally see that .05 of liquid just falling as virga. At least 2nd half of December may be salvageable if LR guidance is as on point as it was with the crap pattern we are about to enter. Looks like a 2013-14 esque -epo pattern potentially. Much better than the close the blinds look we have coming next week. I would watch the December 28-Jan 2 period as I’ll be in Florida

Here’s the 3k

Euro/UKMET largely nothing for all other than a few mood flakes. That's the direction I'm leaning as well. I'll be surprised if the 1-2" shown on the GFS/12kNAM come to fruition. Just moving too fast and precip doesn't seem robust at all not to mention all the dry air.

Meso's are at range but they seem pretty unenthused by this event. Thinking it will be mostly snow TV for most with maybe some areas seeing a C-1".

GFS looks pretty mild overall. at least 3 days in the upper 50's low 60's from the 06th - 12th. Lots of rain.

Well with Met winter set to begin tomorrow I'm guessing 50-75% of normal snowfall for 95 and 75%-100% of normal snowfall for the NW burbs. I just don't like the way things look heading into december. Looks like a typical nina with a screaming PJ and +NAO/AO. I think most events will be nickel and dime or front end 1-3" over to rain. March is such a crap shoot though so who knows maybe we go gangbusters again like 2018. But DJF is looking rough right now imo

Maybe some flurries tomorrow but not expecting anything that coats the ground. Wish it could look like penn state - Michigan state game tonight. Could be the last snow for a long time though so savor it no matter how small.

Looks like Sunday is off the table now. All guidance has the clipper fizzling out before it reaches us now and the coastal is too far off the coast to have any effect. Oh well.