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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Terribly deceiving. The NAM went way SE for tonight btw like you said before, it’s only 1-2 inches total for tonight/tomorrow. Here is the REAL depiction of the snowfall from that NAM run and it’s nowhere even close to that other bogus snowmap which includes sleet as snow, and you have to subtract 1-2 inches from this total because it includes tonight/tomorrow morning: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019030118&fh=81
  2. snowman19
    Right, very close. The mid-level warming and surface temps are going to lower ratios and cause sleet intrusion, dropping totals IMO
  3. snowman19
    I think the mid level warm nose is going to limit snowfall tonight/tomorrow morning. There is going to be a lot of sleet. I think the 1-2” forecast from the NWS is very reasonable
  4. snowman19
    It’s called a changing pattern. Yes, that was a risk a few days ago. Shortwaves and stream flows moved around. You do know weather changes and evolves right?
  5. snowman19
    The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk
  6. snowman19
    It’s so far SE that the metro gets less than an inch total from it https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022818&fh=48
  7. snowman19
    I have, and there are several members leaning NW of the mean. My views have not changed at all
  8. snowman19
    No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday
  9. snowman19
    That’s the most likely scenario IMO. There is nothing to keep it from cutting. It has cutter/inland runner written all over it. The TPV gets stretched out, no -NAO
  10. snowman19
    Who cares what the FV3 shows? Confirmed worst model out there. So incredibly horrible that NWS won’t even implement due to all the complaints about its abysmal performance
  11. snowman19
    Here is the NAM total snowfall for tomorrow night/Thursday morning and the snow showers on Friday, all combined: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022700&fh=84
  12. snowman19
    You’re not getting 1-3” of snow Saturday but I wish you Good luck
  13. snowman19
    Saturday does not look like 1-3 inches at all. It’s rain unless you’re in New England
  14. snowman19
    The UKMET is also total weak sauce, 1002mb low. Unimpressive
  15. snowman19
    I’m talking March 15th on. Not pre March 15th
  16. snowman19
    Completely different, rare situation, that’s not happening this time. As a general rule it’s over for the NYC metro come 3/15 minus a rare setup
  17. snowman19
    March 15th is pretty much the cut off in any year for anyone south of central/northern New England. By the 15th, you are really fighting climo, sun angle and length of day at our latitude.
  18. snowman19
    The cold early March time frame, 1st-9th is legit, courtesy of the -EPO. I just don’t see a big snowstorm during that period, why? No -NAO. No -AO either. Flow is very fast and the PNA is negative, very negative in fact. The thing that separates us from the past several March’s is the NAO, the block is just not there this time
  19. snowman19
    The thing that “saved” the last few March’s was the strong -NAO blocks that would pop up at the beginning of the month, this year, that ain’t happening. There’s nothing to stop the PAC jet from just blasting across the CONUS this time
  20. snowman19
    Unusually strong signals for warmth starting March 9th onward with the tropical convective forcing propagation. March, 2012 warmth? No, but definitely well above normal. As far as snow before the 10th? The setup is not good IMO. No -NAO or -AO, very fast flow, -PNA. If something does pop up, it’s very likely to be minor and not a coastal storm
  21. snowman19
    I don’t think you have to worry about that this time, the usual March -NAO isn’t even happening this year. The ensembles have a very strong +NAM (+NAO, +AO) developing around March 6th in addition to -PNA and the -EPO breaking down and going positive, very positive actually. It looks torchy starting March 9th and beyond
  22. snowman19
    The models have been showing a very cold and/or snowy pattern at day 10 for over 4 months now. It simply stays in the long range and never moves forward in time. I think everyone is done falling for it at this point.
  23. snowman19
    The new Euro has the same old repeating pattern we’ve been seeing since November right through day 10, hit the repeat button. That takes us through March 5th. We’re running out of time here
  24. snowman19
    The 1st week of March looks less and less impressive for cold and it always looked like a dud for snow. The fat lady is walking up on stage and clearing her vocal cords right now
  25. snowman19
    After the mild February 22-28, it’s a one week cold period (March 1-7) and that’s it. The tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and the PAC jet/torch cometh, there’s not going to be a -NAO to stop it this time like last March, no way to sugar coat it
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