snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I wonder if it’s the NAM overamping again….it did a really awful job with this last storm, way too amped
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Ok. you’re certainly entitled to think that….
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The tail end of the month change back to RNA has been well advertised for the past week and it has a lot of support with the ensembles now. The models did a good job showing the coming end of month change in the tropical forcing a couple of weeks back
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Getting the feeling this may be a NYC, south and east event. You don’t have to worry about this one amping into an inland runner, I think the threat is a miss east/south not hugger or runner. Totally different setup from this past one
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After the NAM’s horrible performance with this storm, I wouldn’t get my hopes too high for this
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All he does is regurgitate the Euro, which you just said in the NYC thread this morning, is a horrible model….
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I think the HRRR did the best job with the storm. The NAM was way too amped and warm to start, also too aggressive with the midlevel warming early on
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The models are showing solid -PNA by the beginning of February and the signal has been very consistent. The change coming in tropical convective forcing supports it.
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If the new NAM is correct, there may be very little snow with this for the metro area. It only has an inch or so total even for up in Orange County, less than that south of there and that’s using the Kuchera. It absolutely torches the midlevels very quickly after precip begins, I would not be surprised to see Rockland/Bergen on south and east start as sleet then go to rain quickly https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022011618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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No one should be throwing up any flags for anything. The models are all over the place
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A trough down to Southern California is bad for us. Numbers don’t matter, I don’t care if the PNA index is -1 or -2, look at the actual synoptic setup, it’s not going to magically be a good pattern for us because the PNA is only -1. If a western trough is dumped down to Tijuana, it’s a bad pattern for us. There are also hints of a +NAO in February, if that’s the case and the NAO is +, along with the RNA, we got big problems of the SE ridge type…..
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None of the models have been stellar. At the end of the run, it parks a TPV over New England. If that’s the case, it’s cold and bone dry. After tonight, the Euro is dry as can be for the next 10+ days, could it be right? Who knows, but would that scenario really surprise anyone given how things have gone here since late November?
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The Euro just went from a major snowstorm next weekend with a CCB ripping overhead last night to nothing, zippo today, no storm at all. Barely even FROPA now, positively tilted trough, fast flow, everything sheared and off shore. Model consistency has been pretty bad so far this winter
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Yea, there’s kind of no way to spin a full-latitude trough dumped in the west into a good pattern for us….
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Pointed this out just before but the models are suggesting that we have +NAO to go along with the RNA this go around, unlike December. The CFS (which has surprisingly done very well so far since November) is suggesting a strong +NAO:
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I wouldn’t compare it to December also for the simple fact that I don’t think we see -NAO this time around. The long range models are suggesting +NAO in February
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Yep. Good call on the RNA coming back the tail end of the month into February. Full-latitude trough back in the west
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Did you even bother reading my post? Like seriously did you read it at all. I said “SOUTH of 84”, SOUTH, SOUTH, SOUTH, did you see it that time???
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The new RGEM looks similar….this is quickly looking like a total non event south of 84, and it’s really borderline even up there
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The new NAM is a complete torch. It has less than an inch of snow total, all the way up here in Rockland county. The boundary layer got even warmer than it had at 12z and the midlevels torch before the precip even starts. This may be a brief period of sleet at the onset to all rain
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The breakdown looks to start the last 6 days of the month or so. It probably doesn’t fall apart completely until the 1st week of February
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Those 10:1 snowmaps are so ridiculously overdone it’s not even funny. They’re counting sleet as snow. If you really think there’s going to be no sleet and they’re showing a major snowstorm for the metro area, you have absolutely no idea whatsoever how to read a sounding or what mid level low tracks mean, the midlevel temps are torched…
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This event has some serious problems, major problems actually. There is no -NAO block locking the CAD/confluence in, there is no big 50/50 low locking the CAD/confluence in, the surface high moves off shore, out into the Atlantic and we are into return flow before the precip even starts. The surface gets ugly. The midlevel lows track west of us and the midlevels absolutely torch because of that. If you look at the soundings you have sleet at best, not snow, and plain rain. The 10:1 ratio snowmaps are horrible, they are counting sleet as snow and are grossly inaccurate. This is an inland runner all the way and has been for a couple of days now
